Mr. Kevin
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Everything posted by Mr. Kevin
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I got close to an inch from today's event. I was on the extreme nw side of everything. Hopefully we get into a better pattern sooner or later that will provide more opportunities for us.
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Kentucky was in the colder air longer and my area had a warm nose that took longer to erode but 6-8 hours of sleet and 6-8 hours of moderate to heavy snow. Most impressive yet
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I actually liked that one better than last February for my area. Nice system. All epo driven I believe
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We had a hell of a winter storm on march 5th 2015. 1.86qpf all frozen. We got 2inches sleet and 9 -10inches snow from that system.
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The reading for December at 30mb with the qbo was -18.62 from the cpc. I noticed that yesterday.
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Carver, I may have missed it, but how do the ensembles look moving forward?
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Whatever it takes Carver to get things continuing. 4-6 are very warm phases
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I understand holston. Just trying to think of a way realistically to continue this upcoming cold pattern instead of reversing back to warm again lol. I know I'm getting ahead of myself.
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A few more things. The mjo filtered vp200 forecast chart is confusing to me lol. What do we want to see for colder weather on those charts? The soi dropping means the stj getting active perhaps?
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We dont want convection to fire up in the warm phases if we can avoid it
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Also why is it good to see alot of convection in the central Pacific?
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I'm very dumb when I look at those maps lol with the vp200 plots. Briefly explain what it means and how I can interpret them
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The cfsv2 has it going into 8-2 fwiw. At least today's update did.
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Carver, when will you give update on the ensembles 12z? You mentioned doing that earlier but you probably was busy. I hope yall get hit hard. Sunday night into Monday
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Happy new year everyone! Definitely looking colder for a few weeks. This question may be for jax or holston. Is there any chance the cfsv2 will verify with mjo making it to 8-2? Also, what would need to happen to have this colder pattern extended past mid month? Thanks in advance
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What does the gfs and euro have for temps?
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Carver, just look at the 12zeps teleconnections and if the pna is around neutral or slightly positive or negative, that would imply the trough being a little further east compared to where it has been for a month now at least.
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Imo, it has the tendency to overhype stuff, or it did in the past alot, only to come back to reality as we got closer. Its actually not as bad as years ago, but the 84hr frames definitely need to be taken with a grain of salt. I know that can be with all models, but the nam was notorious with it
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I guess maybe a week of colder temperatures. After December, it will be alot colder lol. Webber mentions some changes in the Pacific, but it seems to weaken the pna from where it's been, which has been off the charts negative as of late. Still need a big pattern shakeup imo
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Rest assured we wont see 1985 cold or even feb 2021 cold for a long time imo.
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The pna with its relaxation of being so negative will help allow cold to be further east and south. Always tough to time everything together.
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The Pacific is always good to have on your side when it comes to colder weather. We want both, but tough to get both for too long imo. I believe the Pacific will turn around for a while to favor cold for us, but perhaps it lasts longer than people believe it will.
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John, what about the hovmoller charts or the olr to show the actual place of mjo? Rmm charts can be misleading
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An alutian ridge is good if it poleward, but if its flat, no dice.
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If the nao and ao was negative moving forward, that could be a good sign. Yesterday's run had the ao/nao moving towards neutral
