Jump to content

Mr. Kevin

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    418

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Mr. Kevin

  1. Mr. Kevin
    We are running out of time regardless. Its already the middle of February. Its been cold despite no -ao, nao, or epo here in my area. Just hope we have a realistic chance at a winter storm. I just want 1-2 inches snow and I be happy lol.
  2. Mr. Kevin
    Carver, to me its really shocking in a way that we can't get out of this non favorable pattern for winter weather, especially with shorter wavelengths approaching soon.
  3. Mr. Kevin
    Jax, do you think we can get a pattern that supports a legit winter event or ULL before we run out of time?
  4. Mr. Kevin
    You would think with changing wavelengths that we get some exciting model runs because if the trough is too far east, we get just dry flow but can help dry out. Its amazes me we are still stuck.
  5. Mr. Kevin
    Hi Bob. Can you make any sense out of this tweet from Dr. Butler?
  6. Mr. Kevin
    Jomo, can you make any sense out of this?
  7. Mr. Kevin
    Dr. Amy Butler posted this image and tweet earlier today.
  8. Mr. Kevin
    Jomo, why is the pattern not supporting a cold outcome? What is the main problem?
  9. Mr. Kevin
    If yall think think about it, there really isn't any solid cold air mass. Its been a very uneventful winter for sure.
  10. Mr. Kevin
    I noticed Allan Huffman pointed out the strong Icelandic low is causing the +ao/nao. Its 926mb. Pretty strong. I still believe we need a pattern reshuffle. Everything is going against us.
  11. Mr. Kevin
    I believe if we have a true -qbo mainly at 30 and 50mb, we should see a period of colder weather that has some stability imo.
  12. Mr. Kevin
    I'm Mr. Golf over there lol. I haven't been there in a while though.
  13. Mr. Kevin
    Hi guys. David gold posted this last night on Anthony Masiello page on Twitter. Maybe some of yall can make some sense with it.
  14. Mr. Kevin
    Would it matter once the AAM trends more neutral from the big spike? Just trying to be optimistic since winter doesn't end until march 20th and meterological winter is March 1st.
  15. Mr. Kevin
    Not what I was saying. I haven't seen the CPC go below normal in a long time, which is shocking to me. All i am trying to figure out what we need to see to salvage some winter in the pattern to perhaps shift things.
  16. Mr. Kevin
    John, i am just trying to think how we can salvage some winter before time runs out instead of us wishcasting lol.
  17. Mr. Kevin
    Im not sure if yall are aware of this, but the CPC made February below normal, which i find incredibly shocking. Not sure what they are seeing. I would like to see some changes to somehow salvage some winter so we can perhaps have a better chance at a winter storm.
  18. Mr. Kevin
    Ive heard the key areas are 30-50mb, which is getting somewhat closer. Out of curiosity, does anyone know how long does the qbo take to influence the pattern?
  19. Mr. Kevin
    I am shocked at the persistent warm weather. Isotherm said it would be warm but possibly colder in February, depending on qbo. He has been dead on so far. The cpc is crazy to go below normal for February imo. They updated today i think.
  20. Mr. Kevin
    Guys i think winter is over other than transient cold shots. They happen in the warmest winters. We are getting everything going against us for some reason this winter. Let's save this information and reconvene at the end of winter to see if i was correct or incorrect. Not being a debbie downer but being realistic and giving my opinion.
  21. Mr. Kevin
    We just dont want to see the mjo reemerge into the maritime continent later on because those aren't cold phases lol. Imo the AAM trending positive could help us as well. At least HM believes it will. Trying to get a favorable winter storm pattern when it gets cold.
  22. Mr. Kevin
    The 0zgfs was a cold run for sure. It's probably overdone but has a 1050mb at 168hrs coming down the plains, but what's suprising in a way is that the front dont stall and form a big Overrunning event but that's why I'm not a weatherman lol.
  23. Mr. Kevin
    Carver or jax, I'm curious if the rising AAM is playing havoc on the models. Something to consider imo. Could be a big factor if its true.
  24. Mr. Kevin
    Happy New Year everyone. Im a little confused on the OLR and what that means. Maybe jax or Carver can help with that. I guess it is kinda in relation to the mjo. Unfortunately we are entering the maritime continent, which are warm phases. Is there really anyway to tell where we may go after mid month at these long leads? Just curious. I would like to see the mjo in other phases other than the maritime continent all winter. Just my two cents
  25. Mr. Kevin
    I know we need alot of work with the pattern, but what's the main thing? Transient wont cut it this winter I'm afraid. Alutian ridging isnt typical in a elniño i didnt think, nor a -pna. Just interesting to me. The IOD is dropping but apparently that wont help us. The soi is dropping and i think that won't help us either. Not sure why we have any optimism about January. Personally we should think already about February. Imo, January is toast. Too many factors against us.
×
×
  • Create New...