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Mr. Kevin

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  1. Mr. Kevin
    Hi Jim. Is the mjo not moving out of IO into maritime continent for the reason the models are backing out on colder pattern east of rocky mountains? I live in Arkansas and its extremely difficult to get snow and ice in November especially anyways, but I wouldn't complain about early season event if the main months of winter are blowtorches
  2. Mr. Kevin
    Jeff, I thought the mjo was supposed to be going into 4 5 and 6 but maybe not now. Or delayed but not denied? I'm not sure. Hopefully the mjo will be moving soon
  3. Mr. Kevin
    Jim, I'm hoping for either a SSW event to delay real warm weather in winter or the qbo to help with a cold weather signal. Not sure how the -qbo can help us if the forcing stays in the 4,5, and 6 phases all winter, which are warm phases in winter. Trying to be optimistic lol
  4. Mr. Kevin
    Is that a cold weather signal jax? I'm not too versed in mjo stuff because sometimes the mjo has a mind of its own from everything else lol
  5. Mr. Kevin
    Hi Jim. I have a question. If that forcing maintains itself in the 110-120E in winter, would we get cold at times or would the forcing have to shift for a colder outcome?
  6. Mr. Kevin
    Jeff, I will take your word on it lol. I'm thinking alot warmer winter this winter, even though last winter wasnt cold, outside of a week to two weeks in February. I just want to see one winter event in my area.
  7. Mr. Kevin
    If that happens, we can cancel winter east of the Rockies.
  8. Mr. Kevin
    Hi Jeff. My concern is if we dont get cold with shorter wavelengths, it may be tougher to get cold with longer wavelengths in winter. Is that a possibility or what do you think?
  9. Mr. Kevin
    Jaxjagman, do we want the mjo to not stay in MC long at all for a cold pattern to develop later on? I forgot how the mjo works for the fall as compared to winter
  10. Mr. Kevin

    Winter 2021-22

    Mr. Kevin replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    That's interesting because I read a tweet the other day that mentioned the artic sea ice had rapidly increased for October
  11. Mr. Kevin
    Jomo, I dont really want to see it get too cold this early. I would rather see it happen at end of November, if it happens. Try to salvage a winter month before laniña kicks in, which this one is a second year niña. They can go either way. A -epo/wpo would be a good thing this winter.
  12. Mr. Kevin
    When will you winter outlook be available?
  13. Mr. Kevin
    I think a -pna isn't that good for us either unless there is tremendous blocking up top. I guess a -pdo usually promotes a -pna.
  14. Mr. Kevin
    Would we have to have a -ao/nao pretty strong for us to have a decent shot at a cold winter? I'm in Arkansas but I dont think it matters much. Also, do you think early winter if we see any cold weather?
  15. Mr. Kevin
    Depending on strength of it. Stronger it is, blowtorch for everyone! No questions asked lol. I still feel if no stratwarm event materializes early on, it will be a long winter
  16. Mr. Kevin
    If it's going to be warm all winter, hopefully it stays warm. I would prefer cold, but with niña, its usually tough. We need alot of things to go our way for a colder outcome.
  17. Mr. Kevin
    Nothing we can do about it if it happens. I believe if we can get a weak pv early on, that may save a month of cold weather for us or close to it. We all just want one winter event
  18. Mr. Kevin
    Ray, I know its easier for yall to see snow and ice. Elevation is everything. We got lucky in Arkansas last February. I think if November shows the same non cold pattern, we may screwed, blued, and tattooed at that point. Better hope we can get the pv to be weaker than normal, otherwise 22-23 winter he we come
  19. Mr. Kevin
  20. Mr. Kevin
    Carver, what about dec, jan, and feb? U got maps for those? Will be very difficult to get any sustained cold weather for November, outside the higher elevations imo.
  21. Mr. Kevin
    As you know raindance, we have seen weak niñas act like strong niñas and it was a blowtorch.
  22. Mr. Kevin

    Winter 2021-22

    Mr. Kevin replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    Weaker the better for niña, especially where it's location will be in the Pacific. Of course Ray, i am just a novice compared to you, but typically a -qbo promotes blocking, but it does us no good if we aren't able to get that -wpo/epo combo during boreal winter. Am I off base or close to being correct? Lol
  23. Mr. Kevin

    Winter 2021-22

    Mr. Kevin replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    Ray,can we get a -epo in a -pdo default pattern or is it really difficult? I guess that's why most hope we can get a taller aleutian ridge instead of flat
  24. Mr. Kevin

    Winter 2021-22

    Mr. Kevin replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    So do you expect the wpo overall to be more negative this winter compared to last winter? Like you mentioned, it was negative in October and then it flipped to positive for rest of winter. If we are going to have a -pdo, we dont want a pronounced laniña of any kind this winter. Correct? In my area, other than about a week to 10 days in February, it really wasn't cold. I think the -nao we had was too much east based
  25. Mr. Kevin
    Ray, i guess we hope for the weaker the better for laniña to have a chance at a colder outcome for us.
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