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Mr. Kevin

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Everything posted by Mr. Kevin

  1. Mr. Kevin
    It would be nice to see two cold blasts this winter. To have a few opportunities at ice/snow. Fun to track when we get them
  2. Mr. Kevin
    If the mjo cant make it into 8 1 2 based on sst anomalies, we will need tremendous blocking or SSW event most likely
  3. Mr. Kevin
    I just don't consider November front loaded because it is not winter lol.
  4. Mr. Kevin
    So what is needed to happen to have some cold this winter and how realistic is it to happening? We don't want to be chasing unicorns all winter lol.
  5. Mr. Kevin
    If what you're saying is true, guess we hope they don't setup in warm phases for winter. The shorter wavelengths aren't giving us any cold weather with front loaded
  6. Mr. Kevin
    Do you think the standing wave would have to weaken before the mjo can propagate to other phases because if it dont and mjo stays in 4-6, it would be real warm all winter imo. Hopefully the standing wave will weaken
  7. Mr. Kevin
    I also feel Carver that if the mjo can make it past the standing wave, we should be in better shape moving forward. Bamwx mentioned that a few days ago.
  8. Mr. Kevin
    With a -pna its inevitable it warms here for a while. Unless u get strong - nao/ao couplet. Definitely needs some help from mother nature
  9. Mr. Kevin
    It's more that it's a dont believe so situation lol. We stay warm If and when we get a -nao/ao things may get colder imo. -Epo/wpo would help also.
  10. Mr. Kevin
    Carver, I guess we can stay optimistic, but in reality we got a long ways to go before any type of cold regime sets in. I'm rooting for it to happen, because most like winter weather and not warm weather all winter lol. I believe that it will be later in winter if we see anything other than a few cold days. Front loaded just dont see logical at this point imo. Would like to get a sustained cold pattern however way we can get it.
  11. Mr. Kevin
    We had a SSW event that overwhelmed everything last February
  12. Mr. Kevin
    In another forum, they are saying this split will be extremely brief, so dont get too hung up in it yet.
  13. Mr. Kevin
    JB is hyping a pv split at 50mb is underway right now leading to 84-85 type winter lol or similarities to it
  14. Mr. Kevin
    We will be fooked if mjo stays in warm phases all winter. Plain and simple lol
  15. Mr. Kevin
    Ray, what your thoughts on the easterly winds weakening to allow mjo to propagate correctly instead of hitting brick wall in warm phases Bamwx alludes to? Also, east based niña trending? Just trying to be optimistic
  16. Mr. Kevin
    We want all models on board to be more believable lol. I think euro was at one point. Last winter it took 6-8 weeks for it to happen but it was bad in February lol
  17. Mr. Kevin
    So far, the mjo charts look decent, other than bc ecmwf, which always concerns me lol. JB still hyping pv split lol. Mentioned 84-85 winter.
  18. Mr. Kevin
    If we can benefit cold then yes I agree but if it goes overseas, we out of luck
  19. Mr. Kevin
    We we want to see some type of SSW or split just to have any chance of cold weather since the Pacific is in bad shape
  20. Mr. Kevin
    Do you think it's all attributed to what jax mentioned last night? Or is something else going on? I kinda believe it has a little to do with the niña more east based now imo
  21. Mr. Kevin
    If true, a heck of a flip in the models imo. Maybe bonks runs, we will soon find out
  22. Mr. Kevin
    The issue is that other than outside elevated areas, its difficult to see winterstorms in November. Strongest niño on record 15-16, my area got a freezing drizzle event and ULL with some snow before the blizzard hit mid Atlantic in mid January. Nashville got hit hard. Not bad in a record strong elniño.
  23. Mr. Kevin
    A guy in another forum said it all starts around Asia and west Pacific where changes have to be made if we are to get out of this stagnant warm pattern. He mentioned the +AAM but I thought we was currently in a -AAM.
  24. Mr. Kevin
    Matt hugo has been touting the -AAM going positive possibly mid December but we definitely want to see some changes if we can get them to flip this pattern instead of constant warm
  25. Mr. Kevin
    I saw that Carver. Probably temporary or a bad run. We have a ways to go before we get into a more favorable pattern for winter weather here. They say all it takes is one winter event to get to average or close
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