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Mr. Kevin

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  1. Mr. Kevin
    I have a question. Do you think we can get a more robust aleutian ridge to build up instead of the flat type, which doesn't bring any cold air to us this winter or is it too early to tell? I think last winter it was relatively flat and we depended on the ao/nao to get cold imo
  2. Mr. Kevin
    Its interesting we saw a -nao/ao most if not all last winter with a +qbo. Perhaps the SSW had something to do with it staying negative
  3. Mr. Kevin
    If that happens, we would get cold for a while. I believe we get cold early instead of later on. So many factors involved. Anyone making forecasts this early are completely guessing.
  4. Mr. Kevin
    Why are you saying that?
  5. Mr. Kevin
    I had 1 ice/sleet storm and two snow storms in Feb in my area. Hope we all get at least one winter storm this winter
  6. Mr. Kevin
    There are so many teleconnections that can make or break winter lol. We got lucky for February with the winter storms with three in one week. It really wasn't outrageously cold except in February, especially the first half. At least here in my area. I do have another question. Which seasonal model usually is most correct on predictions for winter? I guess the better track record
  7. Mr. Kevin
    Raindance, do you think the Pacific was pretty hostile last winter or it could have been colder? How do you see the IOD playing out with the mjo or is it still too early?
  8. Mr. Kevin
    I think it's a quick start to winter and ends early, typical of laniña. 2nd year niñas are tricky at times
  9. Mr. Kevin
    Are there any similarities from last winter to this winter or do you expect a different outcome? Various models show various possibilities for this winter so far. Most teleconnections are hard to predict more than two weeks out, as you know
  10. Mr. Kevin

    Winter 2021-22

    Mr. Kevin replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    A +pna also helped some because it was skewed positive last winter
  11. Mr. Kevin
    I know the climate has changed dramatically since the 60s, but I looked at the qbo for the colder winters back then, especially the 70s and the qbo was moderate negative in every one of them for dec-feb. It was interesting to me
  12. Mr. Kevin
    I'm no expert like most are on here, but the monthly maps should become more realistic as we get closer.
  13. Mr. Kevin
    Opinions on qbo moving forward
  14. Mr. Kevin

    Winter 2021-22

    Mr. Kevin replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    Why did we have a +wpo most of last winter? I think it's too early for anyone to really know what will happen imo
  15. Mr. Kevin
    I don't think many people going into last winter thought it would be as cold as it was, especially with a -ao and nao that prevailed. Of course with climate change, winters now wont be as cold as they used to be years ago. As long as we can sneak in one or two winter storms, I'm satisfied.
  16. Mr. Kevin
    The qbo was positive last winter and we had a -nao/ao most of the winter.
  17. Mr. Kevin
    I appreciate your response to my question 40/70. I dont believe many people got last winter ao/nao being that negative, considering being in a +qbo. I know more factors are always considered when it comes to winter. I would like to see a few years of a -nao west based. I do wonder 40/70, if the niña wasnt as strong as it was last winter, would it have been colder?
  18. Mr. Kevin
    Hi 40/70. I have a question. I read your final notes on last winter at 33andrain.com. If we get a weak niña and a -qbo this winter, do you think we can get a relatively cold winter this winter, all else being equal? I know its early, but I was curious what you keep an eye on for what type of winter could happen
  19. Mr. Kevin
    Jeff, I dont think many predicted last winter to be as cool as it was compared to previous winters at this time last year.
  20. Mr. Kevin
    Hi guys. I hear alot about Hadley cell expansion and when it happens, winters are tough to get real cold. My question is for who knows more than the average person about that is where is the Hadley cell located and anyway to tell if it is or will be expanding? I believe it has a profound effect on the north Pacific pattern
  21. Mr. Kevin

    Winter 2021-22

    Mr. Kevin replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    I have two questions. Do you expect the Hadley cell to be expansive again this winter or is it too early to tell? Also, will we need to see just as good as a hlb type setup this winter as last to even have a remote chance? Keep in mind the laniña was moderate last winter and we did manage to get a few shots of cold air, especially west of the apps.
  22. Mr. Kevin
    It was a good winter here in jonesboro ar. What a record cold and snowy February . Probably something we wont see again for many years. About 12in from two events! It was snowing in low teens. I know it's still early, but what is everyone's opinion on this coming winter?
  23. Mr. Kevin
    I think there is too much troughing out west to get anything significant in terms of colder weather lasting more than a day or two. I think mid march could be colder with mjo progression
  24. Mr. Kevin
    I think -ao/nao forcing a se trend with system. I believe its only the beginning from this point forward. I'm pulling for some snow and ice in the midsouth north of i40 in my area before winter is done.
  25. Mr. Kevin
    Jomo, hopefully yall see some ice sleet. I'm in jonesboro ar and Saturday night I was tripping when I saw the gfs showing 13inches snow. Fun while it lasted. Just still not enough cold air yet.
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