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Mr. Kevin

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  1. Mr. Kevin
    Jim, Hope you're feeling better. Do you have any thoughts on the more east based niña and -qbo? How that may or may not effect things moving forward? I know most niñas are front loaded but probably not this one. Not sure if you agree with that or not
  2. Mr. Kevin
    Chris, if the mjo indeed gets to mjo phase 6 in December, would it just mean front loaded winter calls may be in trouble and a really warm winter more than first thought could be ensuing? Alot of mixed signals imo
  3. Mr. Kevin
    I agree. The rmm charts can be misleading because sometimes the the mjo is actually in a certain phase where the charts have it somewhere else. Things dont match up.
  4. Mr. Kevin
    Jax, I actually think it will be a back loaded winter imo. I know that's probably outlandish in a niña typically, but December looks to start and stay warm for a while. Especially since the niña looks to become more east based than originally thought and -qbo. I just feel like the Pacific being in bad shape will not allow a front loaded winter. We shall see
  5. Mr. Kevin
    Ray, I know it probably was mentioned before, but if we see the niña become east based with -qbo even at 50mb, would we have a better chance at a colder winter later on? Did we have many winters in the past with east based niña and -qbo?
  6. Mr. Kevin
    Jan 2018 was real cold here. Highs in teens a few days. Dec 2000 had two ice storms. 2006 in February had two winter storms. Dec and January was mild then
  7. Mr. Kevin
    I would take 4-6 inch snow all winter, which is our average
  8. Mr. Kevin
    Ray, what you think about Arkansas being further west?
  9. Mr. Kevin
    I think the east based niña that is forming and -qbo that is now at 50mb should be not discounted. We hope it's for colder stormier, but laniñas can be duds with no cold no snow/ice.
  10. Mr. Kevin
    I think once the pna goes negative, it will warm up for a while. We can always get the -nao to force storms south but it would take a strong nao/ao combo to allow that to happen.
  11. Mr. Kevin
    Chris, what are you thoughts on a -qbo and east based niña? Looks like the qbo has switched to Easterly at 50mb if it means anything
  12. Mr. Kevin
    If its anything like 2011 12 winter, might go ahead and cancel and be done with it lol. Very warm winter.
  13. Mr. Kevin
    Raindance, what would that mean if it continues in terms of sensible weather?
  14. Mr. Kevin
    Chris, I know we are in shorter wavelengths currently, but when we get to longer wavelengths, will the models and ensembles be able to better decipher the atmosphere? Just curious
  15. Mr. Kevin
    Do you think we will need to see the GOA trough retrograde before we realistically have a good chance at a colder pattern other than barely normal? I know we are in laniña, but was just curious
  16. Mr. Kevin
    As you know Carver, the MC isnt a colder phase, except early on that promotes a blocking signal. We would want to see the AO and NAO stay negative more times than not to give us a chance this winter imo because the troughing in GOA will be a common occurrence this winter. I would like to see it shift but not sure how that can occur
  17. Mr. Kevin
    I think the Pacific being in not so good shape for delivering cold air, it will be a while for our area.
  18. Mr. Kevin
    If the mjo stays in 4, 5 and 6, which are warm phases, will the qbo be enough to keep the -nao going for a while? Pacific may have been bad last winter, but probably alot worse this winter so we would want alot of help from Atlantic to have a chance
  19. Mr. Kevin
    I feel like when it breaks down, we are screwed lol. Pacific is in bad shape. People mention November 2010. I think the Pacific was in better shape than currently. Imo, if we donr get any winter storms in December, that may be it especially with everyone going front loaded winter
  20. Mr. Kevin
    The issue is the trough in GOA. I guess we should expect it in a -pdo. Hard to get real cold with that. The Greenland block is nice, but definitely too early in season for winter storms of any significance outside the higher elevations. End of eps had a ridge over Alaska but its 15 days out
  21. Mr. Kevin

    Winter 2021-22

    Mr. Kevin replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    Thanks Ray. Definitely dont want to see the spv and tpv couple like some have alluded to
  22. Mr. Kevin

    Winter 2021-22

    Mr. Kevin replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    I know I sound stupid when I say this, but what do you mean by that? Lol
  23. Mr. Kevin

    Winter 2021-22

    Mr. Kevin replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    Hi Ray. I went to isotherms website and it's still running. He hasn't done a winter outlook yet. I do have a question. He mentioned that when geomagnetic energy ap is low, it usually promotes a tendency for a -nao. Even when we have a +qbo. Hopefully we have that this winter off and on
  24. Mr. Kevin

    Winter 2021-22

    Mr. Kevin replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic

    Should add -AO buddy
  25. Mr. Kevin
    Jeff, I think maybe the mjo isnt moving or alot slower than anticipated. Hopefully at some point this late fall or winter we can have one winter storm. Its always difficult in the south even in the best of patterns in
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