Jump to content

Mr. Kevin

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    418

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Mr. Kevin

  1. Mr. Kevin
    I'm not greedy lol. I take icestorm or sleetstorm and be very content lol. Just some winter weather.
  2. Mr. Kevin
    Not really. A southern slider is a great setup imo. Usually a -nao to allow that. Judah Cohen goes back and forth all the time. Yesterday he said no SSW event or anything and now he is saying a possible one if gfs to believed. Or start of one. I personally would like a track of mjo from 7-2 and take our chances from there, even in a weak mode
  3. Mr. Kevin
    The euro and gfs so far have a winter event to our west but obviously its early. Sw energy with -pna running into the se ridge with usually leads to ice/sleet providing its cold enough. At least from experience. Stalled front overrunning.
  4. Mr. Kevin
    I'm curious which mjo rmm chart has the most accuracy? Does anyone know? I saw the bamm that webber posted.
  5. Mr. Kevin
    I guess we all know this, but 4-6 phases aren't cold here. That chart that webberweather posted, is from two days ago. Hopefully it will be updating soon. I hope we get some cold pattern sooner or later.
  6. Mr. Kevin
    Orangeblood at storm2k made a good post today about the pattern. Supposedly the coldest air on the planet will be to our nw. Getting a mechanism to bring it south. Epo/wpo may do it if they are negative enough.
  7. Mr. Kevin
    Get the ecmwf on board, then I am more of a believer. Pattern recognition especially with ensembles
  8. Mr. Kevin
    We have both been on good ends and bad ends of the spectrum. Such strong neg -epo that winter 13-14 regardless. Ao and nao were both super positive but didn't matter because Pacific was so favorable. Or it possibly would have been 10x colder.
  9. Mr. Kevin
    Suprised you left out 13-14 winter. It was unreal cold dude! Alot colder than 14-15 winter. Not even close in reality. Feb made 14 15 winter cold. It was cold from November to April in 13 14. Nonstop actually. Let's hope for a few weeks of cold weather here.
  10. Mr. Kevin
    I believe it will be later rather than sooner jeff for a switch to cold. Probably around or just after Christmas. -60 below zero is too cold and with no snowpack, doubt it ends up that way
  11. Mr. Kevin
    An mjo in certain phases could allow for that to occur HLB? I guess a multitude of things could allow that to happen.
  12. Mr. Kevin
    I want to see some real cold down here. Feel like winter eventually. Definitely need to see a change in the hemispheric flow pattern for sure. I would guess the models and ensembles will adjust if the mjo progression is legit
  13. Mr. Kevin
    I agree, but if the mjo cant make it into the more colder phases for winter, we are fooked lol. I mean stuck in the warm phases that promote warm weather. Alot of moving parts with winter as you know.
  14. Mr. Kevin
    I feel it will be later rather than earlier for any chance at a different pattern moving forward
  15. Mr. Kevin
    I understand. We just want to see a big shakeup in the pattern. Got a ways to go.
  16. Mr. Kevin
    The key Carver is to get mjo past standing wave to even have a chance. I know there is more to that than that. Anything else we need to watch for?
  17. Mr. Kevin
    Do you believe the mjo wave will make it past the standing wave to have a coherent mjo propagation into colder phases? I think that's really important
  18. Mr. Kevin
    JoeB and JoeD have a good gig with weatherbell for sure. They have to hype cold to get subscribers. I understand to an extent. I wonder if they sound more realistic on the videos on wxbell compared to Twitter or FB? They are smart people and I like JoeD better than JoeB but imo.
  19. Mr. Kevin
    I'm not as smart as you with charts, but what does this mean?
  20. Mr. Kevin
    Do you really believe we get a legitimate -epo? I think the standing wave would have to break down to get a great propagation of mjo in phase 7 instead of a weak version. Just my opinion
  21. Mr. Kevin
    Dont you think one model will fold in regards to mjo? They both adamant about what they indicating. In 17-18 winter, shortly after Christmas, it was a strong cold blast and my car battery went dead and had to get another one. Very cold air.
  22. Mr. Kevin
    Webber and masiello are smart as fook lol. I don't want a blowtorch all winter, but an east based nao wont help us. West based is key imo. I mentioned this recently but the standing wave has to break down for us to not blowtorch and be stuck in 4-6 phases all winter.
  23. Mr. Kevin
    Right now, we have the Epo and ao not in our favor for cold air. The SSW event we had last winter took 6-8 weeks to propagate correctly to the troposphere, but all SSW events aren't the same. We definitely need a fundamentally sound shift in the Pacific to really change the pattern among other things.
  24. Mr. Kevin
    Ray, I'm no expert like yourself, but two valid concerns on how rest of winter turns out. (1). Can standing wave break down to allow propagation for mjo into other phases besides 4-6 moving forward. (2). Will the epo and ao stay positive all winter? If that happens, it will be incredibly tough for it to get colder for any time. Hopefully we can get a change eventually whatever is needed.
  25. Mr. Kevin
    Like I mentioned, dont get excited when you see cold weather forecast because in this pattern, it's very transitory. If it happens. Just hope for one cold shot or possibly two at some point
×
×
  • Create New...