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Mr. Kevin

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  1. Mr. Kevin
    All we have is optimism, which is good. I just want our opportunities for at least a few winter events. I know we have a long ways to go, unfortunately. Without HLB, it will be almost impossible, especially down south
  2. Mr. Kevin
    I know we got a long ways to go Jim. Trying to be optimistic just like everyone else who likes winter. So far, things are real unfavorable for cold.
  3. Mr. Kevin
    Carver, only chance we have legitimately is to have a strong enough mjo wave into phase 7 because 4-6 in winter is real warm. No questions asked lol. SSW are unpredictable. I expect a warm winter. Just hope like you mentioned that we have 1-2 big cold shots here. I think it would take a SSW to give us one of them imo. Definitely will be warm through mid December. Expect the worst and hope for the best
  4. Mr. Kevin
    Hopefully it will be ironed out soon. I believe it will. We are far from a cold stormier pattern in our area. SSW events are tricky because alot of times cold does go overseas and we miss out. We got lucky last February here. Hopefully its colder around Christmas here.
  5. Mr. Kevin
    I think with -pdo that intense, we would probably need the ao/nao real negative to possibly trump it imo. Do u agree or will more need to happen? Also, I think the niña is more east based with -qbo. Could that help out?
  6. Mr. Kevin
    Jeff, which model/ensembles usually have best track record with mjo progression?
  7. Mr. Kevin
    Chris, have you seen the updated mjo charts? Not sure how accurate the gefs bc is. Thought it looked decent so far
  8. Mr. Kevin
  9. Mr. Kevin
    Carver, the mjo stuff has been updated. Gefs bc looks good at least for today.
  10. Mr. Kevin
    Looks interesting. He said in his video that it is a small one now,but not that well defined signature.
  11. Mr. Kevin
    Do you think the rmm charts of the mjo are misleading? Of where the mjo is actually? If mjo is really going into colder phases, the ensembles and models shouldn't be so warm
  12. Mr. Kevin
    JB mentioned that today also along with 12zeuro about SSW possibilities. I think if we have one, it will be early instead of later, but that's me assuming lol.
  13. Mr. Kevin
    Could you briefly elaborate please? Thanks in advance
  14. Mr. Kevin
    Hi Jeff. Do you think the mjo will make it to phase 7 and 8? Would it be ok to get it into the cod also? Just wondering. My feeling is, correct me if I'm wrong, the trending niña more east based with -qbo will give models fits for a while imo
  15. Mr. Kevin
    Would it take the mjo to get into phase 7 or cod for that outcome to occur with -epo? Just curious. I'm no weatherman like yourself that's good with patterns, but I have an inkling that the niña eventually going more east based with -qbo will throw a monkey wrench into alot of different things.
  16. Mr. Kevin
    Ok gotcha. I dont believe anything until its 5 days out, sometimes less than that
  17. Mr. Kevin
    We havent had round 1 yet in December lol
  18. Mr. Kevin
    This may not mean anything, but it looked interesting in region 1+2.
  19. Mr. Kevin
    2011-12 winter is always a concern with such a +epo currently and hideous Pacific
  20. Mr. Kevin
    The thing I'm concerned about is if niñas are mostly front loaded, and dont get a cold pattern early on, will we get in one at all this winter? I always like to get a winter storm early in case it gets warm and stays that way all winter
  21. Mr. Kevin
    Ray, happy Thanksgiving. Since it's a weak niña coupled, do you think the niña being more east based currently with the -qbo could allow the mjo to propagate to other phases other than phases(4-6) for winter? Just curious
  22. Mr. Kevin
    Euro and eps havent been doing as good as years ago unfortunately. Gfs is somewhat better with many updates it's had. Hopefully we can get into a pattern for cold and storminess eventually this winter
  23. Mr. Kevin
    I heard the afternoon models were colder also. Maybe a blip? Guess we will find out.
  24. Mr. Kevin

    ENSO

    Mr. Kevin replied to jaxjagman's topic in Tennessee Valley

    Over at another forum, a guy mentioned standing wave in phase 5 for the cooler November. Do you think phase 7 is even possible? I feel that would be our best opportunity to get into a colder pattern
  25. Mr. Kevin
    I've heard into the the Maritime continent with mjo but who knows this far out. Beginning of December looks warm regardless
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