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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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4 hours ago, Wow said:

yeah.. boring... right.

e3qvTNa.png

I’m gonna need you to post some clown maps to keep my attention 

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6 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

I’m gonna need you to post some clown maps to keep my attention 

Have a great pattern coming up but surprisingly,  no clown maps are showing up on the models...

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8 minutes ago, POWERSTROKE said:

Hadn't been here since last winter where is everybody?  Not many posting much

Gfs all over the place the last week or so. 

After Thanksgiving into first part of Dec favors a cold wet period for the SE.

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19 hours ago, POWERSTROKE said:

Hadn't been here since last winter where is everybody?  Not many posting much

We're still here. Just waiting on our next threat.

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21 hours ago, FLweather said:

Gfs all over the place the last week or so. 

 

Living dangerously there man. If the Gfs find out about each other you better be somewhere else! They don't usually like sharing. :D

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I am just thankful we have actual systems to track for the next few weeks. And that it does not appear we have to deal with any "torches." I think December is going to be interesting, to say the least. And California will be getting some much needed rainfall as well. All in all, not too bad.

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6 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Living dangerously there man. If the Gfs find out about each other you better be somewhere else! They don't usually like sharing. :D

I'm okay with that. 

Looking in the long range.  Plenty of potential for cold and wet spells. 

I see potential for this being a cold and wet winter in the SE.

Just have to see.

But goofus. These last two weeks or so. All over the place.

It's been chilly this month for FL standards.  But it's been colder..  09-10 & 14-15.

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On 11/24/2019 at 9:44 PM, Queencitywx said:

Probably gonna be a good start to the season for the slopes.

Yes, my wife is on the Ski Patrol at Ski App...they've got several runs open and so does Sugar...I don't know if Beech has any open?

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Just now, Isopycnic said:

Winter officially begins in just 25 days. Ahead of Dec. 21, Elizabeth Gardner and Mike Maze share their winter weather predictions, including the biggest question of all: Will we see snow?

 

https://www.wral.com/no-el-ni-o-this-year-could-mean-a-milder-winter-with-less-snow/18790970/

Answer is naso much. 

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Headed to Gatlinburg Sunday through Tuesday.  May get to see some NW snow accumulation.

From KGSP AFD:

At first blush, this one appears to have a
lot going for it Sunday night in the operational model runs. Deep
moisture, mid-level forcing, sufficiently low mid-level thickness,
favorable thermal profiles for snow, and a Great Lakes connection
all point to the potential for our first real NW Flow snow event
of the season Sunday night and Monday.
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2 hours ago, Isopycnic said:

Winter officially begins in just 25 days. Ahead of Dec. 21, Elizabeth Gardner and Mike Maze share their winter weather predictions, including the biggest question of all: Will we see snow?

 

https://www.wral.com/no-el-ni-o-this-year-could-mean-a-milder-winter-with-less-snow/18790970/

Crazy to think we actually ended AN for snow last year (all due to the early December event) especially considering the horrid weather the rest of the season. Last winter will go down as an absolute low point for me as the second half of December through March featured almost 0 events to track, in addition to near-constant torches. And that big snow turned to rain and became nasty shortly after daybreak, taking away from what was 9 inches at my house. Really puts into perspective that numbers don't always tell they story. I would've taken 4 small events that were all frozen over that one "big" one any day imby. Was neat seeing snow on the ground weeks before Christmas though.

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AITIO

 

all it takes is one down here in da south.  I’ll track everything till April.   You never know and we all usually cash in once.  Even if it is small. 

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4 hours ago, gman said:

I read this as we have more chances to fail.  Improved storm track brings better odds at precip, but milder cold shots to work with.  We always take the deep cold first down south and then see what precip we can find.  Otherwise its cold chasing moisture on repeat.

The only saving grace I can see here is the possibility for deepening storm systems bringing their own cold source and we get a big dog or two.  But you hate to hedge the winter bet on big dogs.

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Van says, Best be getting winter gear ready................................................

 

Are you ready for winter and snow?

For those of you interested, I have finalized my Snowfall Outlook for 2019-20.
Posted Nov. 25, 2019
FEEL FREE TO SHARE

Forecasting winter weather months in advance is far from an exact science. Still, many want to know what we (meteorologists) think. I do try to put some science behind my seasonal guesses.

The most popular sources for helping us predict long range weather patterns is to study the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The water temperatures in the eastern pacific near the equator plays a big role in weather patters.

Many people know about the El Nino (warmer water) and La Nina (cooler water) in this part of the Pacific. This impacts our precipitation and temperatures. When neither are present it is a LA NADA year. Neutral.

This year we are in a La Nada pattern. Given that, I looked at our snowfall in La Nada years. Since 1950, there have been 21 years that were La Nada. Average snowfall for the Piedmont-Triad is 8.9" in a La Nada year. Our most recent 30 year normal for snowfall done by decade (1981-2010) is 7.5" Our 105 year average is 8.5". So La Nada is above both of these.

In addition, I see December being colder than normal, January normal and February again being colder and then there is always March with big swings.

Given all of the above, La Nada, colder than normal winter temperatures, I have bumped snowfall projections up by 10-20% above normal.

Here in the Triad, our winter total would be close to 10" with closer to 15" on the northern side. and 6-8 over our southernmost counties. Mountains see a big range due to elevation change, but a general 20-40 inches with areas above 4000 feet seeing more than 40 inches.

I will have the complete winter outlook next week.

No photo description available.
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On 11/26/2019 at 7:19 PM, BIG FROSTY said:

Van says, Best be getting winter gear ready................................................

 

Are you ready for winter and snow?

For those of you interested, I have finalized my Snowfall Outlook for 2019-20.
Posted Nov. 25, 2019
FEEL FREE TO SHARE

Forecasting winter weather months in advance is far from an exact science. Still, many want to know what we (meteorologists) think. I do try to put some science behind my seasonal guesses.

The most popular sources for helping us predict long range weather patterns is to study the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The water temperatures in the eastern pacific near the equator plays a big role in weather patters.

Many people know about the El Nino (warmer water) and La Nina (cooler water) in this part of the Pacific. This impacts our precipitation and temperatures. When neither are present it is a LA NADA year. Neutral.

This year we are in a La Nada pattern. Given that, I looked at our snowfall in La Nada years. Since 1950, there have been 21 years that were La Nada. Average snowfall for the Piedmont-Triad is 8.9" in a La Nada year. Our most recent 30 year normal for snowfall done by decade (1981-2010) is 7.5" Our 105 year average is 8.5". So La Nada is above both of these.

In addition, I see December being colder than normal, January normal and February again being colder and then there is always March with big swings.

Given all of the above, La Nada, colder than normal winter temperatures, I have bumped snowfall projections up by 10-20% above normal.

Here in the Triad, our winter total would be close to 10" with closer to 15" on the northern side. and 6-8 over our southernmost counties. Mountains see a big range due to elevation change, but a general 20-40 inches with areas above 4000 feet seeing more than 40 inches.

I will have the complete winter outlook next week.

No photo description available.

That would be 200-300% of normal for me, just can’t see that happening! Bet the streak, havnt even had a normal season in 9 years, why start now?

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Looks about average for MBY. I always hold the rain/snow front lines, being north of 85. Somehow, I pull a rabbit out of my ass every year and get 8-10.

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On 11/26/2019 at 7:19 PM, BIG FROSTY said:

Van says, Best be getting winter gear ready................................................

 

Are you ready for winter and snow?

For those of you interested, I have finalized my Snowfall Outlook for 2019-20.
Posted Nov. 25, 2019
FEEL FREE TO SHARE

Forecasting winter weather months in advance is far from an exact science. Still, many want to know what we (meteorologists) think. I do try to put some science behind my seasonal guesses.

The most popular sources for helping us predict long range weather patterns is to study the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The water temperatures in the eastern pacific near the equator plays a big role in weather patters.

Many people know about the El Nino (warmer water) and La Nina (cooler water) in this part of the Pacific. This impacts our precipitation and temperatures. When neither are present it is a LA NADA year. Neutral.

This year we are in a La Nada pattern. Given that, I looked at our snowfall in La Nada years. Since 1950, there have been 21 years that were La Nada. Average snowfall for the Piedmont-Triad is 8.9" in a La Nada year. Our most recent 30 year normal for snowfall done by decade (1981-2010) is 7.5" Our 105 year average is 8.5". So La Nada is above both of these.

In addition, I see December being colder than normal, January normal and February again being colder and then there is always March with big swings.

Given all of the above, La Nada, colder than normal winter temperatures, I have bumped snowfall projections up by 10-20% above normal.

Here in the Triad, our winter total would be close to 10" with closer to 15" on the northern side. and 6-8 over our southernmost counties. Mountains see a big range due to elevation change, but a general 20-40 inches with areas above 4000 feet seeing more than 40 inches.

I will have the complete winter outlook next week.

No photo description available.

I would cash out with this...

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2 hours ago, superjames1992 said:

I would cash out with this...

I know you werent here last year James so I will remind you we banked more than this forecast in one single event....in December......drops mic.....

I'm underwhelmed.  Tell me 20"+ for the triad and I might perk up.  

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How’s the LR looking? To me it seems we oscillate between AN and BN but avg out around normal for temps. Mostly rain but with some mood flake potential. 

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