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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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Cold air usually doesn't come as fast as the models show in these setups.  I don't have any scientific evidence to back this up, but that has been my experience.  Maybe we'll see a miracle.

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5 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

Cold air usually doesn't come as fast as the models show in these setups.  I don't have any scientific evidence to back this up, but that has been my experience.  Maybe we'll see a miracle.

Usually no but it’s happened before. 11/11/13 is my example. I think we’ll see some flakes in my part of Durham County but hey, flakes in November is a win anytime. 

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1 hour ago, Queencitywx said:

Usually no but it’s happened before. 11/11/13 is my example. I think we’ll see some flakes in my part of Durham County but hey, flakes in November is a win anytime. 

Gfs showing around an inch for person and granville counties.

 

But if I remember correctly that day. It was near 60 before lunchtime and snowing in the mid 30s by 4pm.

IIRC that was when Charlotte had thunder snow. It snowed in Columbia and myrtle beach as well.

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1 minute ago, FLweather said:

Gfs showing around an inch for person and granville counties.

 

But if I remember correctly that day. It was near 60 before lunchtime and snowing in the mid 30s by 4pm.

IIRC that was when Charlotte had thunder snow. It snowed in Columbia and myrtle beach as well.

It got up to 67 at noon that day. 

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Cold vs moisture will be a fun race for anyone to track at work tomorrow. Some competing biases here- you kind of expect the cold advection to underperform, although at the same time precip via frontogenesis always seems to overperform. Think a lot of places see 10 minutes of decaying snowflakes while laying 36/33, which in November is always a W.

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19 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

Cold vs moisture will be a fun race for anyone to track at work tomorrow. Some competing biases here- you kind of expect the cold advection to underperform, although at the same time precip via frontogenesis always seems to overperform. Think a lot of places see 10 minutes of decaying snowflakes while laying 36/33, which in November is always a W.

Exactly. 

:D

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2 hours ago, Queencitywx said:

Usually no but it’s happened before. 11/11/13 is my example. I think we’ll see some flakes in my part of Durham County but hey, flakes in November is a win anytime. 

I think this event in 2003 was also a case of the exception.  I recall it being in the 70s the day before but it was snowing pretty good by mid morning the following day.  We got a pretty solid coating on grassy surfaces.  Of course, it warmed up to 40 by the afternoon and it all melted, but it was neat.  I was in Greensboro.

accum.20030330.gif

 

I think I might remember the 2013 event you refer to, as well.  I recall it being in the 60s early in the day in Greensboro, but by early evening flakes were flying.  It was a sloppy mess, though, and didn’t last long and never stuck, though.

Anyways, I would definitely think flakes tomorrow are very possible, I just think seeing accumulating snow would take a near miracle, despite what the clown maps might say.

On another note, I suppose I need to re-up my WeatherBell subscription now that I live in a place that actually gets snow again. :)

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3 hours ago, superjames1992 said:

I think this event in 2003 was also a case of the exception.  I recall it being in the 70s the day before but it was snowing pretty good by mid morning the following day.  We got a pretty solid coating on grassy surfaces.  Of course, it warmed up to 40 by the afternoon and it all melted, but it was neat.  I was in Greensboro.

accum.20030330.gif

 

I think I might remember the 2013 event you refer to, as well.  I recall it being in the 60s early in the day in Greensboro, but by early evening flakes were flying.  It was a sloppy mess, though, and didn’t last long and never stuck, though.

Anyways, I would definitely think flakes tomorrow are very possible, I just think seeing accumulating snow would take a near miracle, despite what the clown maps might say.

On another note, I suppose I need to re-up my WeatherBell subscription now that I live in a place that actually gets snow again. :)

Sometimes, it’s just better not to know! :fever:

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As Mr ROSS stated above, any snow flakes in November is a win. From RAH:

Non-liquid precip chances: As models converge on an agreed-upon common timing of precip and vertical thermal structure, confidence is fairly high that the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain (roughly along and N of Hwy 64) will see some wet flakes and/or sleet pellets mixing in with the rain on the back edge of the precip. But based on how the strongest and deepest lift (including fgen and that aforementioned strengthening upper divergence) is lining up vertically and temporally with the arrival of the cold air and within the DGZ, I have some concerns that we`ll see a short period of sufficiently high precip rates to switch us over to mostly snow and sleet for a brief time, although likely no more than an hour. While the ground should be warm enough to prevent accumulation there (NC State Climate Office agnet stations confirm this), heavy enough rates may produce a light coating on elevated surfaces. Confidence in this scenario is not high enough to warrant any mention of accumulation at this time. But this is certainly something to be watched closely this morning.

 

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I moved from Southport, NC to Garner, NC recently. Hoping I see more snow around here than I did down there. :+) They say it is supposed to snow briefly here, but I am not getting my hopes up. Good luck to everyone. Hopefully, some of you get a nice coating of snow.

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14 hours ago, PackGrad05 said:

Unless the pattern shifts, this may be the last winter-like thing to track for at least a week or two.  

Maybe so, but the EPS (and GEFS) paints a not-terrible pattern after day 10 with some -NAO action. So at least maybe we don't torch. Yet.

EPS day 15.png

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2 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Maybe so, but the EPS (and GEFS) paints a not-terrible pattern after day 10 with some -NAO action. So at least maybe we don't torch. Yet.

Yeah, get that AK low to retrograde west a bit and we'll be OK...there are hints of it on the extended ensembles...and it makes sense to me that we'd have some retrograding there given that this will be after the time when the MJO has passed thru the Pacific (the MJO passing through the Pacific extends the Pac jet eastward - but it would retrograde thereafter).  We'll see, the 10-30 day type forecasting is awfully tough

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8 hours ago, JoshM said:

GFS trying to pull shenanigans for parts of NC Saturday

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_15.png

6z continues its trickery. 

Though cmc did show a quick round of zr for upstate sc. 

Alot of energy going to around the SE over the next week @h5 .

Not rlly sure if I buy the double lp system for Friday. Looks like a decent chance of rain for Friday. Most of the times fronts come through dry here.

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This is definitely intriguing. Particularly since the global models tend to underestimate the CAD at times.  This has the makings of a sneaky little system.   image.thumb.png.ed6887120d4f1d5d1e3f708837274688.png

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17 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

This is definitely intriguing. Particularly since the global models tend to underestimate the CAD at times.  This has the makings of a sneaky little system.   image.thumb.png.ed6887120d4f1d5d1e3f708837274688.png

As always, it will be close. I think many of us will just get a very cold rain; which if you think about it fits well with the time of year (Thanksgiving --> cool, overcast, rainy).

But who knows.... 

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3 hours ago, FallsLake said:

As always, it will be close. I think many of us will just get a very cold rain; which if you think about it fits well with the time of year (Thanksgiving --> cool, overcast, rainy).

But who knows.... 

It just means our rain will be a little colder. I'm catching on to this forum.

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51 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Anothe big rain cold event incoming! This may be a prolonged, extra cold rain event! Thu-Sat

Better than an extra long cold drought event!

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