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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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3 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

12z GFS was almost something big , it was much colder than 6z , but still , a cold rain...

What a shocker, we need blocking to keep the high in place. Was several ticks stronger this run, but got scooted out to see, granted the trajectory of the Low wasn't great for most.

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I think at this point it's just important to look at the pieces. We've swung widely from a major storm to rain in just a few runs, which is expected at this range. What's been key is that the models continue to hint at a storm and cold air (to some degree) being available. More than a week out, I'm not sure what else we can be asking for. Either way, this is better than a torch!

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Overall I’m impressed with where we stand looking out towards prime climo.  For here (Atlanta) that’s jan through mid feb. 

 

we could be talking endless SE ridge.  Promising signs are abound and good god it could be so much worse. 

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Hello once again all for 2019-2020!  

I agree with Lithia.  Winter's acoming. May not be for next week but overall not a bad pattern developing.

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The cold front ushering in the colder air moves thru on Wednesday.  One trend on the ensembles is for the next Pac wave to be not as amped up and a little more suppressed looking, at least initially, to where some precip could be thrown into the cold air by Friday - it's a possibility anyway.  You can see here on the EPS trend loop how the Northeast cold vortex has trended to where it isn't moving out as quick....also, the trough in the southern plains isn't as amped (the height lines over the SE are trending more west to east instead of SW to NE - that keeps it colder).  Of note, some of the GFS Ensemble members and the Canadian Ensemble mean show potential for light freezing rain deep into Georgia by Friday morning.

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Interestingly, the 6z GFS jumps on the initial wave that passed harmlessly to the south on the previous run. Lots of energy flying around.... just goes to show we have a long, long way to go before we have any real confidence in what will occur. 

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Here was the thoughts on the long range of the GSP discussion.

 

Dry and cold conditions will return in the wake of the front, with
temps a few degrees below climo on Wednesday and even colder Thu
and Fri. Our next opportunity for precip likely will result from
a shortwave inducing cyclogenesis near the Gulf Coast near the
end of the week. The details remain murky, with model solutions
reflecting an uncomfortable amount of spread in both timing and
location of said cyclogenesis. Those solutions that do depict the
low affecting our area generally do so after the Arctic high has
set up over the East Coast, implying some possibility of wintry
precip at least at the onset of the event. Most likely this
would occur on Friday but some ensemble members bring it in late
Thursday; just to underscore the low predictability of the event,
the Canadian GDPS actually doesn`t show any system at all. Until
the guidance comes into better agreement, all we can say is that
Thursday thru Saturday remains a period to be watched.

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42 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

6z GFS laying down the mother of all ice storms... Start the thread?cb8c0512739d3d572e6b594257aa5a1c.jpg

That would not be good.

Temps in the mid 20s(24-26) along I85.

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1 hour ago, msuwx said:

Interestingly, the 6z GFS jumps on the initial wave that passed harmlessly to the south on the previous run. Lots of energy flying around.... just goes to show we have a long, long way to go before we have any real confidence in what will occur. 

Yeah Mr Euro has gone away from the initial wave scenario, and the GFS moved to it this run (and trending that way on the ensemble mean)

The low budget models (JMA & NAVGEM) continue to like the more wintry early wave scenario as well 

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28 minutes ago, griteater said:

Yeah Mr Euro has gone away from the initial wave scenario, and the GFS moved to it this run (and trending that way on the ensemble mean)

The low budget models (JMA & NAVGEM) continue to like the more wintry early wave scenario as well 

As much as I want to see a Wintry scenario,  until the Euro is on board , it's hard to believe the GFS and the others...

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40 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

As much as I want to see a Wintry scenario,  until the Euro is on board , it's hard to believe the GFS and the others...

It's a bit wonky though because if we were to go toward this more wintry scenario of the initial wave hanging back, then coming out with good timing (a big IF), the Euro would have been the model that had that idea first.  Bottom line, we are always going to question things until the flakes are flying and the ice is coating

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So the 6z GFS is probably the worst case scenario for this storm. The shortwave “survives” and pairs with a textbook (like, actually stick the modeled high placement and strength in a textbook) CAD scenario that returns the Carolina power grid back to the 1870s.

As I said yesterday these shortwaves that travel across the south west are finicky and praying that they “hold up” or don’t get “strung out” is usually a fools errand. And I still kind of think that.

That being said it is being pretty consistently modeled that a 1040+ high will cross the northern states. And that’s concerning. The “textbook CAD” is typically the toughest ingredient for these systems. 12z models will be worth watching with how that shortwave behaves, because the margin between “chilly day Thursday” and “ice storm” is pretty close.

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1 hour ago, griteater said:

Yeah Mr Euro has gone away from the initial wave scenario, and the GFS moved to it this run (and trending that way on the ensemble mean)

The low budget models (JMA & NAVGEM) continue to like the more wintry early wave scenario as well 

I think even if the Friday/2nd wave scenario plays out is correct there is a decent chance of at least advisory level freezing rain for ga/the upstate. Temps/wetbulbs are low enough that freezing temps should hang on through a decent part of the day friday. Depth of subfreezing layer is enough to see a decent wetbulb effect so The warm up the fv3 and especially the euro show friday is probably too fast by several hours at least as usual....with Wetbulbs Friday am in the mid to upper  20s. Euro shows Greater than half inch amounts through noon friday over ne ga and more than 0.25 over the upstate when I believe temps should still be subfreezing. So respectable glazing even with its run imo. 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Lookout said:

I think even if the Friday/2nd wave scenario plays out is correct there is a decent chance of at least advisory level freezing rain for ga/the upstate. Temps/wetbulbs are low enough that freezing temps should hang on through a decent part of the day friday. Depth of subfreezing layer is enough to see a decent wetbulb effect so The warm up the fv3 and especially the euro show friday is probably too fast by several hours at least as usual....with Wetbulbs Friday am in the mid to upper  20s. Euro shows Greater than half inch amounts through noon friday over ne ga and more than 0.25 over the upstate when I believe temps should still be subfreezing. So respectable glazing even with its run imo. 

Yeah we need wave 1 to be slower or wave 2 to be quicker to maximize wintry chances...neither idea is far-fetched.  As far as the cold high goes, the CMC Ens at the surface has 32 deg with 20 deg dewpoint way down in south Georgia Friday morning - just shows the potential even if it's overdone

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12 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

So the 6z GFS is probably the worst case scenario for this storm. The shortwave “survives” and pairs with a textbook (like, actually stick the modeled high placement and strength in a textbook) CAD scenario that returns the Carolina power grid back to the 1870s.

As I said yesterday these shortwaves that travel across the south west are finicky and praying that they “hold up” or don’t get “strung out” is usually a fools errand. And I still kind of think that.

That being said it is being pretty consistently modeled that a 1040+ high will cross the northern states. And that’s concerning. The “textbook CAD” is typically the toughest ingredient for these systems. 12z models will be worth watching with how that shortwave behaves, because the margin between “chilly day Thursday” and “ice storm” is pretty close.

Although it is more for the Carolinas ...the worst case for most of ne ga would be something a little slower than the 06z run. For north ga the 06z gfs is actually probably too fast with a good  bit of precip falling before temps are cold enough. Plus gfs showing intense precip rates which would cut down on accretion.  Those ice amount maps are way too bullish for ga. Slow it down by 6 to 10 hours and it's a different story. 

Quite impressive caa on that run though thur...30 to 40 knot winds at 925 to 950mb over ga/sc and quite the temp drop over a few hours time.

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3 minutes ago, griteater said:

Yeah we need wave 1 to be slower or wave 2 to be quicker to maximize wintry chances...neither idea is far-fetched.  As far as the cold high goes, the CMC Ens at the surface has 32 deg with 20 deg dewpoint way down in south Georgia Friday morning - just shows the potential even if it's overdone

Yep..wouldn't take much. 

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3 minutes ago, griteater said:

GFS out to hr84. Should be another wintry run with wave 1 as the wave is hanging back again 

The trend has been consistent last few runs. Actually closed off at hr84 over Texas at 500 this run 

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