• Member Statistics

    15,884
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    WXMal4
    Newest Member
    WXMal4
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, jpbart said:

10 days out individual model runs do not matter much as the overall set up.  According to all the posts I have seen, it is looking OK right now.  Sit back, relax, drink a bourbon and just keep an eye on it.  Excitement for me starts 5 days out, and confidence starts to build 3 days out, actual worry, joy, or call to action is at the less than 48 hours to go and much positivity across the board.

I'm just happy people are talking about something. Been awhile! But seriously, it's not a half bad pattern coming up, and it doesn't stop with this threat. Seems to be decent cold lurking around an active SJU and NAO moving towards neutral mid month. Man I would love some real blocking to show up. Seems like it's been years since we've had a true Greenland block to sit put for a big storm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Also, I guess no one stuck around this run beyond hour 270 haha.... I'll take snow then ice then 72 hours below freezing! B) 

Feels good to have winter weather threats show up, even in LR. Feel like we barely had even that last season!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

At 7-10 days away, they never giveth, only false hopes

Well they giveth plenty at 7 - 10, but then they take most if it away.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looks to me like the GFS finished with 3 straight threats. Starting with the 14th one that missed this time, then a snow/ice storm on the 18th, then a suppressed system at the end of the run. Obviously at these lead times it probably means absolutely nothing but for now I'll take some fantasy storms cause we didn't even get many of those after the December storm last year. At least it shows the pattern over the next 2 weeks may be conducive, even if as always we need to thread a needle on timing and perfect placement. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, griteater said:

Euro is very similar to yesterday's wintry 12z run at 500mb, but not as cold.  At hr186, sfc low in NE gulf and cold high over New England.  hr186-192 there is what looks to be frz rain from I-85 and NW in North Carolina

Something you just get used to saying...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, NEGa said:

Just waiting for lookout to pop in - he loves glen mf burns haha. It’s way too far out for me to bite but it looks like a good set up at this point. We haven’t had an ice storm like that in over 10 years 

Lol..just saw this ..hes really unbelievable. I cant believe he posted that based on one model run on an event more than a week out...seriously wtf? Hes a strange dude...will down play legit and promising storms in the near term but then do something like that. Him getting slapped down by fellow mets has been  awesome though. 

As for next week...seem like there is  potential if we can get the timing right...Not exactly earth shattering news i know but thats better than nothing. 

 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, griteater said:

Euro is very similar to yesterday's wintry 12z run at 500mb, but not as cold.  At hr186, sfc low in NE gulf and cold high over New England.  hr186-192 there is what looks to be frz rain from I-85 and NW in North Carolina

Euro temps seem off? With that look, it should be quite a bit colder, IMO

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, griteater said:

12z JMA is similar to the Euro 500mb evolution, but faster with the storm, and colder

 

 

That's pretty classic right there.  I won't knock the JMA, but let's just say I'd feel better about a potential storm if it was the EURO and UKMET. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS is on its own with the  placement of the southern low while all the rest of the models agree that it will be holding its own to varying degrees over the SW/Texas by 12z 12/11..

12z Euro:

puqeWnD.png

12z Canadian:

xzHMDmC.png

12z JMA:

JFrWKp8.png

12z NAVGEM:

2abfwpn.png

18z GFS:

ASC9RRq.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Wow said:

GFS is on its own with the  placement of the southern low while all the rest of the models agree that it will be holding its own to varying degrees over the SW/Texas by 12z 12/11..

12z Euro:

puqeWnD.png

12z Canadian:

xzHMDmC.png

12z JMA:

JFrWKp8.png

12z NAVGEM:

2abfwpn.png

18z GFS:

ASC9RRq.png

I've been  watching the models.

A whole lot of placement and displacement.  Too far out to tell. 

But clearly between now and next weekend  there is going to be a pattern change.  Weather a lake cutter or GOM low.

Gfs has been showing the way. A pattern change

At this point in time  not worth getting into. 

But from above.  It's clear. Cold and wet coming. 

Besides nothing at this time frame picks up to well.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just like gofus showing another AL/MS special on 18z.

That's proof a pattern change coming... 

I honestly see one two punch. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm having a hard time with the GFS lately in even the mid range. Yesterday, it showed us getting 1.90" for next Mon-Wed rain event. Today, it's down to just 0.18".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
50 minutes ago, griteater said:

Here's a trend loop on the EPS for the wave over the 4-corners (this includes the 18z EPS run - the last image in the loop).  Good trend

DIe7vGe.gif

That's good that it's staying more separated right?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

That's good that it's staying more separated right?

Yes. Too fast and it gets absorbed into the trough 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not to be a buzzkill but I have been around this forum long enough to play the “maybe the Baja shortwave will change and work in our favor this model suite” game. It doesn’t work out a lot. Seems like we’re going to be stuck in this cold/active pattern for a while; my advice is to take the energy focused on this storm and instead direct that energy in completing your holiday shopping this weekend, so that you can track models and speculate on forums stress-free by the end of December :)

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ILMRoss said:

Not to be a buzzkill but I have been around this forum long enough to play the “maybe the Baja shortwave will change and work in our favor this model suite” game. It doesn’t work out a lot. Seems like we’re going to be stuck in this cold/active pattern for a while; my advice is to take the energy focused on this storm and instead direct that energy in completing your holiday shopping this weekend, so that you can track models and speculate on forums stress-free by the end of December :)

Great advice! Right now there's nothing to specifically focus on except (as you said) for the overall pattern configuration. We need to get one of these (10/12 day) fantasy storms to within 6/7 days, and then have support from other models before we truly bit on a potential storm.

It might be frustrating to see these storms pop up and then disappear, but it is a function of being in a cold/active pattern; whereas the models will spit out potential winter storms because the pattern does support the potential.   

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Great advice! Right now there's nothing to specifically focus on except (as you said) for the overall pattern configuration. We need to get one of these (10/12 day) fantasy storms to within 6/7 days, and then have support from other models before we truly bit on a potential storm.

It might be frustrating to see these storms pop up and then disappear, but it is a function of being in a cold/active pattern; whereas the models will spit out potential winter storms because the pattern does support the potential.   

Couldn't agree more. The pattern is not half bad and the fact we are going into Christmas week with at least a storm signal and cold (and no impending blowtorch) is exciting. How often does it snow here before Christmas on even the best winters? A lot of people already worrying at the very onset of the climo season for snow with a decent pattern upcoming. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Man that comma head snow in the mountains on last night's Euro was the stuff of dreams... Too bad it's 8 + days out. 

Yea I mentioned that in the mountains thread, looked like an absolute beautiful changeover.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.