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November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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November continues to be the only fall month of the 2010's that can generate any cold around here.

NYC 2010's September temperature departures

2018.....+2.7

2017.....+2.5

2016.....+3.8

2015.....+6.5

2014.....+1.7

2013.....-0.1

2012....+0.8

2011....+2.0

2010.....+3.1

NYC 2010's October temperature departures

2018....+0.8

2017.....+7.2

2016.....+1.9

2015.....+1.1

2014......+2.7

2013......+3.3

2012......+1.1

2011......+0.2

2010.....+1.2

November

2018...-4.1 so far

2017....-1.1

2016....+2.1

2015....+5.1

2014.....-2.4

2013....-2.4

2012....-3.8

2011....+4.2

2010....+0.2

 

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2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Wantage NJ 4 sw: (3 w of FWN) 1.53" between 6PM last evening and 230AM today. Yearly total exceeds 60".  Per an early November check with NJ Climate team...2018 I think is going to go down as top 3 wettest years in NJ official record keeping, especially here in nw NJ=treasured water replenishment(wells/large rivers etc). posted 727AM 11/25

Always great to have a post from the legendary Walt Drag!!

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2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Wantage NJ 4 sw: (3 w of FWN) 1.53" between 6PM last evening and 230AM today. Yearly total exceeds 60".  Per an early November check with NJ Climate team...2018 I think is going to go down as top 3 wettest years in NJ official record keeping, especially here in nw NJ=treasured water replenishment(wells/large rivers etc). posted 727AM 11/25

It's such a pleasure having you here with us :) 

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In the wake of the most recent rainstorm, New York City now has 58.14" precipitation for the year. That ranks 2018 as the City's 12th wettest year on record. New York City will very likely receive 60.00" or more precipitation by the end of the year.

Select implied probabilities:

Historic 11/26-12/31 data (1869-2017):

60.00" or more: 91%
62.50" or more: 49%
65.00" or more: 8%

1971-2017 Data:

60.00" or more: 93%
62.50" or more: 62%
65.00" or more: 20%

Least precipitation 11/26-12/31: 0.25", 1955
Most precipitation 11/26-12/31: 10.87", 1973

Another storm should bring 0.50"-1.00" rain with local amounts of 1.50" to the immediate region tomorrow into Tuesday. Data for select cities regarding year-to-date precipitation, 2018's ranking among the wettest years on record, and ranking scenarios for amounts ranging from 0.50" to 1.50":

Rain1126-272018scenarios.jpg

With 1.46" rain, Hamburg, PA surpassed 70.00" annual precipitation for the first time on record. Hamburg has received 70.68" precipitation in 2018. The previous record was 67.61", which was set in 1911. During 2011, that location had what is now its third wettest year on record with 63.95" precipitation.

Locations that have set new annual precipitation records this year include Baltimore, Charleston (WV), Hamburg (PA), Reading, Shirley (NY), and Wilmington (NC). Additional locations will likely set precipitation records by the end of the year.

Finally, despite some discontinuities in the model runs, December still appears on track to wind up colder than normal in the region with above average monthly snowfall.

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44 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah but they said that a few days ago and now early December looks quite warm. 

I have a hard time trusting any guidance beyond 5 days. 

This is going to be the type of winter with great periods and breaks. Wall to wall is almost impossible now. The good news is there is a ton of snow cover to our north and that should help with localized cold generation in southern Canada. I was just in Vermont this weekend and there was a serious snow pack for November 

 

2821D0FF-C17C-4626-A94D-D7C294A86E21.jpeg

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This is going to be the type of winter with great periods and breaks. Wall to wall is almost impossible now. The good news is there is a ton of snow cover to our north and that should help with localized cold generation in southern Canada. I was just in Vermont this weekend and there was a serious snow pack for November 
 
2821D0FF-C17C-4626-A94D-D7C294A86E21.thumb.jpeg.0023fa442799b6846380b1c21d444b06.jpeg

Is wall to wall impossible due to the climate?

Have we ever had one? There was mild weather in 1994 and 1996. Maybe other examples are from before my time. ‍


.
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1 minute ago, North and West said:


Is wall to wall impossible due to the climate?

Have we ever had one? There was mild weather in 1994 and 1996. Maybe other examples are from before my time. emoji1744.png‍emoji3603.png


.

93-94 was pretty damn close. From late December thru early March we only had one brief period of moderation.

95-96 had a long break in mid to late January before cold and snow returned.

We could see a month to 6 weeks of wall to wall but unlikely for a 3 month period

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2 hours ago, weathermedic said:

Coastal flood warning for southern Queens and Brooklyn for tomorrow morning’s high tide. Minor to some moderate coastal flooding expected. 

There was some flooding and beach erosion in the Rockaways. A little more significant than most ppl expected. 

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15 hours ago, bluewave said:

NYC closing in on the most days in any year with measurable precipitation. 

#1...152 days....1996

#2...145 days....1972

#3...142 days....2018...2003

Surprised 1983 isn't on this list, it's the only year with over 80" of precip!

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