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November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread


Rtd208

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1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

Good chance at some snow tomorrow afternoon/night with the clipper system. NAM is further North but the RGEM/GFS are further South.

BL is marginal along the coast but it could come down decently for a few hours, especially North and West.

 

p7oSL1h.png

So, Probably some light accumulations up to 1 inch possible? Or will it be a quick dusting then melt?

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Last day of Nov. averaging 40degs., about 3degs. BN.

Month to date is  -3.4[44.5].    Nov. should end at  -3.3[44.4].

All 8 days are averaging 42degs , or 1deg. AN.

GFS/CMC gives us little to talk about after the warm rain Sun.   EPS likes Dec. 9.  GEFS has a 50/50 chance of a total of 3" by mid-month.

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Owing to narrow fgen forcing, good jet config and steep lapse rates aloft, this could be a very localized overperformer (1-2") this afternoon, probably terrain-favored as NJwx alluded to yesterday. Could be a surprise in/near the city too despite the warm layers in the soundings.

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The surface temperatures are going to be warm, but soundings indicate that wet bulb could be right around freezing. As @purduewx80 indicated, we're a bit unstable. The HRRR wants to bring through a low topped squall line between 18z and 21z. You can see some snow starting to breakout on radar over NE PA. Really not sure why the NAM has been so consistently North. Even the GFS is further South.

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November continues to be the only fall month of the 2010's that can generate any cold around here.

NYC 2010's September temperature departures

2018.....+2.7

2017.....+2.5

2016.....+3.8

2015.....+6.5

2014.....+1.7

2013.....-0.1

2012....+0.8

2011....+2.0

2010.....+3.1

NYC 2010's October temperature departures

2018....+0.8

2017.....+7.2

2016.....+1.9

2015.....+1.1

2014......+2.7

2013......+3.3

2012......+1.1

2011......+0.2

2010.....+1.2

November

2018...-3.4 so far

2017....-1.1

2016....+2.1

2015....+5.1

2014.....-2.4

2013....-2.4

2012....-3.8

2011....+4.2

2010....+0.2

 
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