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Rtd208

November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

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2 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Pattern looks to remain active for the next couple of weeks at least. Maybe another storm brewing for next weekend?

It's on all the models

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The first three weeks of Nov. look AN at a record pace.   Curtain of cold descends for good after that.   This from the  RRWT.

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13 hours ago, CIK62 said:

The first three weeks of Nov. look AN at a record pace.   Curtain of cold descends for good after that.   This from the  RRWT.

It looks accurate though I don't know about record pace with the trough in the central US. 

There's also been a notable decrease in ssts off the Mid-Atlantic and NE coast, so I don't believe the WAR will over perform like in past months. 

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Well, the next 7 days are already averaging 58, a solid 6/7degs. AN.    Remember that warmest Nov. ever, 3 years ago, was only +5.1.

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Last 3 days of Oct. averaging 54degs., or about 2degs. AN.

Month to date is +1.0[58.4].    Should end month at +1.1[57.9].

All 8 days are averaging 56degs., or about 5/6degs. AN.

RRWT really screwy for first time since I have been  monitoring it.   Now calls next 30 Days Normal, instead of the +5 of yesterday and before.   Will have to chuck it as just another refractory child.   I still have my lucky dice anyway. lol.

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On 10/28/2018 at 9:14 PM, CIK62 said:

Well, the next 7 days are already averaging 58, a solid 6/7degs. AN.    Remember that warmest Nov. ever, 3 years ago, was only +5.1.

How can something that hasn't even happened yet "already [be] averaging" anything?

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The EPS weeklies have been really struggling lately. The October 18th run completely missed the warm start to November that is coming. While the forecast skill has been pretty good week 1, week has left much to be desired. 

October 18th run

https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1053067802561568768

 

 

At least the weather will be cool for the NYC Marathon!  Perfect weather actually.

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8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

At least the weather will be cool for the NYC Marathon!  Perfect weather actually.

It does look like Sunday will have closer to seasonable temperatures for the marathon. But November should come in with above normal temperatures in its first few days. This was also a theme for 2015, 2016, and 2017. The pattern also looks very stormy with one cutter after another. So our 2018 wet pattern continues into November. 

Strong November cutter pattern

ecmwf-ens_z500aMean_us_4.thumb.png.6d325670a52ba156072aa7ce32e3827e.png

 

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47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It does look like Sunday will have closer to seasonable temperatures for the marathon. But November should come in with above normal temperatures in its first few days. This was also a theme for 2015, 2016, and 2017. The pattern also looks very stormy with one cutter after another. So our 2018 wet pattern continues into November. 

Strong November cutter pattern

ecmwf-ens_z500aMean_us_4.thumb.png.6d325670a52ba156072aa7ce32e3827e.png

 

I would rather have the cutters now then in December or the rest of winter.The thing that I like seeing is the stormy pattern.

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You guys are silly bitching about cutters in Fall.  They are climatologically favored by the wavelengths and average jet location.  That’s why Denver has dual fall/spring snow maxima.  Troughs tend to dig in the Plains from October to early December (Ridge-Trough-Ridge) and then mean troughiness moves to the east in a ridge-trough pattern for late December and Jan-Feb.  It has always been thus.  Enjoy your month of NW winds and stratocumulus.

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Isnt there a statistic...

If we get a significant measurable snow before the last week of November, it has always led to a below normal snowfall winter?

That said, if you like snowy winters, history tells us you dont want to see snow now.

 

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24 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

Isnt there a statistic...

If we get a significant measurable snow before the last week of November, it has always led to a below normal snowfall winter?

That said, if you like snowy winters, history tells us you dont want to see snow now.

 

There really is no correlation between snowfall before the last week of November and the seasonal snowfall. Whether it snows early is more a reflection of the fall pattern. 2011 and 2012 are a great example of this. Both years featured record early snows. One winter was one of our worst for seasonal snowfall. The other featured one of our greatest February blizzards of all time.

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14 hours ago, bluewave said:

The EPS weeklies have been really struggling lately. The October 18th run completely missed the warm start to November that is coming. While the forecast skill has been pretty good week 1, week has left much to be desired. 

October 18th run

https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1053067802561568768

 

 

It's not like the CFS has been great either. I'm not particularly inclined to trust any temperature predictions beyond 10 days.

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48 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Gfs looks just as warm now for the first 10 days of November as it was in October. 

Several strong cutters making things very stormy. 

Cmc has a big dump of cold air by 240

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

There really is no correlation between snowfall before the last week of November and the seasonal snowfall. Whether it snows early is more a reflection of the fall pattern. 2011 and 2012 are a great example of this. Both years featured record early snows. One winter was one of our worst for seasonal snowfall. The other featured one of our greatest February blizzards of all time.

Actually there is a correlation.

That El Nino winter with the record blizzard was the one time with any significant snow.

 

If you didn’t have that blizzard, Central Park would’ve recorded 2 inches of snow that winter.

 

Go back and look at the records of every time it has snowed before the final week in November. The winter that followed was bad if you liked snow.

 

I don’t know if it’s a pure coincidence or if it’s reflective on a pattern...But that’s what history tells us in New York City

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39 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

 

I don’t know if it’s a pure coincidence or if it’s reflective on a pattern...But that’s what history tells us in New York City

There is plenty of variety in the snowfall seasons following NYC snowfall before the last week of November. I don't think anyone would call March 1956 a bad outcome following the record November 19-20th snow in NYC. 

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