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Drz1111

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  1. the shear and lapse rates come in a bit too late for a really good event, no? 3 hrs earler and it would be something.
  2. “Real” severe storm at the Battery in Manhattan. Branches blowing off trees and torrential rain. Second best storm of an active year.
  3. One thing I do notice that's a negative is that the LL winds aren't as backed as forecast.
  4. You're factually wrong. Look at the 12Z OKX sounding. The convective temp today is not very high.
  5. This sounding is tasty. We're going to convect early. Also, continue to think SPC is understating shear around here.
  6. I strongly disagree with this. Given good low level directional shear and mid-upper speed shear, any storms that stay discrete will have good chance of developing rotating updraft. NE is going to have more storm coverage but also more mergers and a quicker conversion to a linear mode. I think the tail-end cell has the best chance of producing significant severe, as opposed to the garden variety wind they’ll be getting up north.
  7. Man, if anything popped in the sub tropics we are open for business in the midatlantic with the strong ridge in the north atlantic and the weakness over the lakes.
  8. Severe tomorrow looks good. 0Z CAMs showing enough bulk shear to organize things, and oodles of CAPE by our standards. Heck, there’s enough low level shear that someone might see a spinny updraft.
  9. Deep layer shear isn't terrible tomorrow, might see some organization and severe wind. Obviously tons of moisture and good low-level lapse rates. Should be a stormy day.
  10. 3” of rain in a month is dryish? OK bro.
  11. The Newark terminal radar showed a perfect wet downburst - just classic!
  12. The cells currently popping over NYC are raining on their own updrafts, FWIW. Think we need the better bulk shear to arrive before we get severe stuff.
  13. ILS 13 approach into LGA tonight. Tells you how soupy it is out there.
  14. If it were me I’d warn that right-mover sup passing through central jersey.
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