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About Drz1111

  1. 1/16-17 Anafrontal/Coastal Low Snows Disco/Obs

    I mean, or you could think about how the model works - in particular, how it differs from other models - and weigh it more heavily in events that play to its 'strengths'....
  2. 1/16-17 Anafrontal/Coastal Low Snows Disco/Obs

    NJwx85 is the king of saying “I don’t use snowfall maps” and then basing his analysis off of snowfall maps.
  3. 1/4 Mega Bomb obs.

    My god it is just pouring snow on the UES of Manhattan. We’re back in the good stuff again.
  4. 1/4 Mega Bomb obs.

    Actually, highest storm tide on record for them.
  5. Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb

    Kudos to NWS Upton, which put out WSWs and Blizzard warnings when most guidance still had the big stuff missing to the east. There’s still a place for human-style pattern recognition in meteorology.
  6. 1/4 Mega Bomb obs.

    It’s also not dry air - look at the soundings. It’s subsidence next to the big bands. It’s some kid getting butthurt looking at the radar and making stuff up.
  7. Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb

    I mean, the well inland guys are right that whoever ends up on the NW side of the ‘last’ band might get a dusting while someone 10miles to their SW gets a foot. But it’s an open question as to where that band sets up (and in the 3KM NAM view of the world, there is no band)
  8. Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb

    3KM NAM is odd. The precip in the comma head is all smeared out and there’s not much mid level lift and convergence. It’s almost as if there are two quasi separate storms - a Miller A that occludes before it can give us good rates, and then a Miller B that forms ENE of us and hits New England, and we’re left with no dynamics and just moderate snow.
  9. Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb

    Much improved for N NJ over last run. Sets up the deform band over Bergen Co and it rots there as the storm occluded and is kicked ENE.
  10. Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb

    Ain’t a bust if you’re on the wet side of the 700mb frontogenesis with tons of csi.
  11. Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb

    Oddly, the models are pretty consistently showing a more westerly track for the 700mb low today, and that seems to be why more QPF is getting pushed back into the NY bight, because it's enhancing lift in the saturated snow-growth zone.
  12. Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb

    I think this is a positive GFS run. If you look closely - and it's faint, because the GFS doesn't really have the resolution to resolve this - you see the same convergence over NYC at 700mb as you have in the NAM. That's what we want to see b/c its our snowgrowth zone. The odds of getting a hit b/c the placement of the surface low is off by 200 miles or something seems pretty low. The odds of the models underestimating the westward extent of the deformation zone - a known bias in strong EC storms! - is much higher...
  13. Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb

    Something odd that I've noticed is that the 3KM NAM is firing off tons of organized supercells in the warm sector of the storm, while the HRR has some convection but generally more stratiform type precipitation. It's been consistent over multiple runs, and I wonder if it relates to the different physics of the models, since both allow convection and (IIRC) incorporate SSTs. To my eye the 3KM NAM seems overdone, and if not Reed Timmer needs to rent a boat.
  14. Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb

    NJwx85 doesn't really know how to read a model, so take what he posts with a grain of salt. What is happening is that the new NAM has the best lift just kissing NYC, though it hits a wall there as the storm heads off to the east. Whoever gets under that band will have a warning-level snowfall, whoever doesn't, wont. Depending on what model you're looking at and/or the cut of your boxers, you can argue for that last band setting up anywhere from NYC to the twin forks, and that's why we're all here gnashing our teeth. Every model, mas o menos, is within that range.
  15. Jan 4th 2018 Fish Bomb

    GREAT instability suggested by the 18Z NAM at hour 21. If that verifies NYC gets into the heavy comma head. Keep hope alive!