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About Drz1111

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  1. We’re getting near our convective temp - the SPC outlook is too conservative up here.
  2. Drz1111

    Cyclones from 4/10-4/13

    What do y'all think about Wednesday? Obviously not enough moisture for anything widespread but if something can get going up by the triple point the kinematics are promising.
  3. Drz1111

    March, 2019

    Guys there is record snowpack over Quebec/Labrador and the maritimes and chilly SSTs. Of course you’re going to get a big back door season.
  4. Drz1111

    February 2019 Discussion I

    Nasty icing in north adams. ~.25 and accumulated on the roads too. No bueno.
  5. Drz1111

    OBS thread Feb 20-21, 2019

    Agree, snow just began in lower Manhattan
  6. Bad post. We’ve gotten plenty of moderate storms with bad indicies or teleconnections. It’s just random that we haven’t gotten a benchmark storm. If you want to argue that the pattern hasn’t been conducive for KU storms, sure, but that’s not remotely the reason for the goose egg.
  7. It’s interesting to me that people think of the MJO as an independent forcing. It’s not. The tendency of El Niño to stall the MJO over the maritime continent is known and modeled: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016MS000725 The more interesting question is why the effect is stronger this year. Tropical met folks would have you believe the tropics are the origin of teleconnections, but that’s bullshit, the tropics are coupled to the poles just like the poles are coupled to the tropics. What I’ve been wondering is whether climate change could enhance the “winter monsoon”, particularly in the early/middle winter, by building the strength of the Siberian high. A stronger winter monsoon would reduce diurnal convection in the maritime continent which would tend to stall the MJO in 5 and 6.
  8. But it's a spoonful of chocolate mousse prepared by Alain Ducasse, and its very, very good.
  9. Excellent, once-a-decade squall here in lower manhattan. Streak of foam in the harbor, SN+. Yum.
  10. Anyone bitching about this winter must’ve been too young to remember the great El Niño of 1998. This is practically Arctic compared to that - it’s near normal and we’ve had plenty of cold days. Frankly we just got unlucky with a couple of storms - we could just as easy be tracking above average with 50-100mi differences in track. Shit happens. Im pumped for a nice pac torch. Much better to get those in Feb with the longer days and warm sun: it can be 55 and nice for golf and hiking, rather than 45 and useless. Also, that’ll blast snow all over th west, and I’m going skiing again out there in March. This has been a very strong snow season in CO/UT/NM and they have been due for one.
  11. Neat little areas of weak rotation along the line. They’re regularly spaced. It’s some sort of shear driven thing and it reminds me of kelvin-helmholz waves.
  12. Exactly. The pattern has been fine, but NYC has been unlucky. Dems the breaks.
  13. Jesus, you’re good. I hope there’s a way for someone with your skills to get paid by energy traders or whatnot in a consulting capacity.
  14. Drz1111

    January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

    Interestingly, 3KM NAM shows winds in NYC and LI stay NE for the duration of the event, so temps stay 32-34. We'll see what happens but it wouldn't take much to turn this into a nasty ice storm with a NAM track. Slightly lower wetbulb in the source airmass and everyone NYC north is in business for ice.
  15. Drz1111

    January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

    The ETA is a meso model?! Well I’ll be. They didn’t teach us that in school.