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About Drz1111

  1. That's a mega-favorable look, with great outflow channels north and south. This is the time of year where easterly shear weakens in the Caribbean and major hurricanes are possible taking the southerly route. Of course, Carribean cruisers are generally boom-or-bust deals given that any shear tends to advect dry air into the storm.
  2. The well-defined low pressure and already-deep and concentrated convection, maybe?
  3. Big line tonight in North County ruined the My Mornings Jacket concert in North Adams.
  4. That line is not weakening. Do you guys see the big area of 50mph+ wind pointed at NYC? That is the rear inflow jet behind the MCV being forced to the ground. That's what makes the reflectivity look weaker, but that's a sign of a strong line that can potentially put down a wide area of wind damage. It's not as sexy as the bow down around Allentown but it's just as likely (or more) to verify severe.
  5. Oh god, that stupid article again. It's the dumb thesis that will never die.
  6. Also, there is a rear inflow jet notch literally pointed at Manhattan. Y'all are nuts to call a skunk right now.
  7. come on guys. The MCV is headed right for the Bronx. We're not going to have the strong bow-type winds from the southern part of the line but we're otherwise going to get smoked. this isn't a split situation. Hell, there might be some interesting weak spinny stuff on the meso-warm front that's going to pass over westchesterish.
  8. There are towering CU going up over NE Jersey as-is. Given that, I find it hard to believe that, with the additional forcing from the cold pool, we wont have enough instability to support the line later tonight.
  9. I don't know if I'd call if "unlucky". The CAMs were all over it so something about where the forcing was and where that meant the subsidence would be played against the five boroughs.
  10. Come now. We don't have enough shear to support supercells. The hodographs look like a pile of thread. Organization is going to be in the form of short lines.
  11. Yep. That's ideal for severe this time of year for several reasons, not the least of which is that it facilitates advection of an EML from the high terrain of the Northern Rockies baking under the long days of mid July.
  12. A nice spin up literally went within a mile of the mount holly radar site.
  13. If you look at the HRRR, oddly enough its showing CAPE at the coast increasing toward sunset, even after peak heating. The storms in Central PA are initiating in that zone of slightly higher CAPE right now. It must be some sort of tiny wave that's enhancing lapse rates as it passes by.
  14. Beautiful example of a left mover just east of State College. There's just enough backing of winds with height to support that.
  15. Weird to see such strong inverted V soundings in this neck of the woods. Especially given how moist its been.