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Drz1111

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  1. I live in your hood, Kaner. My best weather tip after 35 years on the UES: In big storms go onto the reservoir track in the park and situate yourself near the 85th & 5th entrance on the track, right where the track is perpendicular to the wind. That gives you a long, unblocked trajectory over the reservoir before it slams into the (slightly) elevated running track, and if the trajectory is right the wind can even be funneled a bit by the old pumping station. I've verified 60mph+ gusts in big blizzards at that spot with a Kestrel.
  2. Worst traffic I’ve ever seen in Manhattan. And I’ve lived here 35 years. Total failure.
  3. Drz1111

    11/15-16 Coastal Storm/ULL Discussion

    Totally different context. Insolation now is much lower (akin to late January) than in March.
  4. Drz1111

    Major Hurricane Michael

    That twitter thread is a bit disheartening. There's no reason why the operational intensity should be given the benefit of the doubt (i.e. that there should be a higher burden to 'overturn' the original analysis). Reanalysis should be clean slate.
  5. You guys are silly bitching about cutters in Fall. They are climatologically favored by the wavelengths and average jet location. That’s why Denver has dual fall/spring snow maxima. Troughs tend to dig in the Plains from October to early December (Ridge-Trough-Ridge) and then mean troughiness moves to the east in a ridge-trough pattern for late December and Jan-Feb. It has always been thus. Enjoy your month of NW winds and stratocumulus.
  6. Drz1111

    Michael Banter Thread

    FWIW, I have a good source down in FL who is intimately involved with damage assessment, and what I've heard is that damage outside of the surge zone is basically bimodal: built to post-Andrew code: survived with minimal damage; older construction: obliterated.
  7. Drz1111

    Major Hurricane Michael

    I was watching that Mexico Beach video in real time and it’s the most incredible weather video I’ve ever seen. I had 4 people in my office watching with me instead of doing real work, including one of my bosses. It was pure insanity and i can’t imagine how it will be topped; its amazing the camera survived, let alone that it recorded the whole damn thing.
  8. It’s not fully tropical anymore
  9. Drz1111

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Downer weenies are out in force today!
  10. Drz1111

    Major Hurricane Michael

    That eye shot is the fermat's last theorem of storm chasing.
  11. Drz1111

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Fortunately, in the last 5 years, everyone became a chaser with a decent quality video camera in their phone. As long as some morons didn't evacuate we should finally get the elusive blue-sky daytime eye pics we've all secretly wanted.
  12. Drz1111

    Major Hurricane Michael

    Also, outerwall will be disrupted by land interaction first . . . I think with landfall 3-5 hours away, its a red herring: interesting for posterity though.
  13. Drz1111

    Major Hurricane Michael

    An intensifying, or steady state, strong core sub-935 landfall in the US is EXTREMELY rare. Can't emphasize that enough. Here's the list from the last 100 years: 1935 'Labor Day' - 892 mb 1969 Camille - 909 mb (arguably was mid-ERC at landfall, has been reanalyzed at weak cat 5) 1992 Andrew - 922mb (and intensifying) 1919 Keys (near miss) - 927mb (and likely peaking) 1960 Donna - 930mb (but weakening after Keys landfall, likely due to ERC, and significantly weaker at mainland landfall) 1961 Carla - 931mb (but likely mid-ERC at landfall) 1989 Hugo - 934mb You do the math if we're in the high 920s and peaking at landfall. Very, very rare, and very very serious. Only saving grace is that, like Carla, this has picked out a relatively empty stretch of coast to hit.
  14. Drz1111

    Major Hurricane Michael

    The current NE motion is VERY good news. If it comes onshore E of Panama City it likely causes substantially less damage. Population density falls off dramatically E of Panama City. Fingers crossed.
  15. Drz1111

    Major Hurricane Michael

    No, it's mesoscale eye dynamics. Note the mesovortice pattern changing with time. There is a paper on this. Small storms can intensify through landfall - see Andrew or Tracy (normally I wouldn't cite to the mega storms, but that's now the gestalt of intensity we're dealing with here so . . .there it is)
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