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Drz1111

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  1. I thought that the radar presentation and droplet size suggested some warm core characteristics with this one, and interestingly, while the phase diagrams are still cold-core, they're VERY close to the line, especially for an April storm. I assume that given the lack of baroclinic forcing and the recent trip over the Gulf Stream, this one has some warm core processes going on. Cool little low.
  2. Slightly OT question for this group: I'm going chasing for the first time later this week. The only lens I currently have is the kit lens that came with my digital camera body (that's I mostly use for Astrophotography). It's your typical, not particularly fast wide to mid-zoom lens. I have a budget for one new lens to buy tomorrow before I fly out - about $200-250. Would it be more useful to get a fast, wide angle prime lens or an inexpensive longer zoom (which won't be particularly fast, given the price point I'm playing at). TYIA.
  3. Also, FWIW, over on the EC this would be a scenario where we would be looking at the ensembles to see what percentage of the solutions were showtime. I rarely see ensembles in the severe threads, which is interesting since they're such a critical tool for EC storms. I'm probably chasing for the first time within the next 3 weeks (thankfully, someone else doing the driving) so I am just a total noooooob when it comes to this . . .
  4. Priceless. You're not an OU sophomore, you're an OU junior. You can always tell the kids speaking in absolutes, even in hard sciences - it's no different than the radical feminists over in the women's studies department. One of the things that will make you a better scientist (or forecaster) as you get older is realizing that nothing is quite so absolute. It's been several years since I was in grad school, but there are two implied complexities in your blanket statement that you're overlooking. First: what purpose does direct measurement have for providing data to a model? If it's just extra points on a grid, then yes, obviously remote sensing is providing 90%+ of the data - that's inherent to the limits of the direct measurement grid. But at least with the models I worked with (which were, admittedly, ocean models and not atmospheric), we used direct measurement to calibrate / ground-truth remotely-sensed data. I have always assumed they're using it similarly in atmospheric models. That means that the widely-spaced grid can have a surprisingly meaningful effect. Second: how do you verify what you're arguing? If your proposition is: "the wave coming onshore isn't going to alter the verification of the 72 hr forecast global upper-air pattern produced by a global model", then you are tautologically going to be correct (think about why). if the question is whether or not it might decrease uncertainty as to forecast severe weather, that's a tougher question. Do you really think that's ever been measured rigorously? How would define your sample? (I'll bet anything it's rarely, if ever, been done.) I have a lot more knowledge of EC cyclogenesis than I do of severe, but I can tell you that research has been done for EC cyclogenesis and it's come down on the side of it mattering, most famously with the 12/26/10 snowstorm. It follows that it might matter for Plains severe. But neither you nor I know, because not only has no one measured whether there's an effect, I'm not sure anyone has properly defined how you would ask the question. Saying "someone told this to me and they weren't a weenie" is an appeal to authority, and not even a particularly strong one. Pardon the French, but you need to bring stronger **** than that to the table once you graduate.
  5. Yikes. Someone doesn't understand how weather models work. OU sophomore?
  6. With that kind of SRH, I wouldn't be quaking in my boots.
  7. Reports this AM of lots of icebergs in the shipping lanes this year, the most in a while. That's almost always a result of entrenched HP over Labrador and the Maritimes, and it correlates with a cool spring and summer historically.
  8. That's a nice look for plains severe.
  9. Based on what was posted to YouTube this AM, lots of the chasers on the first tornado ended up on the wrong side of the rain shaft wrapping around the wedge. Diaz's 45 second teaser is easily the best video of the big one.
  10. I almost wonder whether the messy / moist convection ongoing upstream is reducing moisture juuuust enough to keep the storm mode discrete, because only the strongest updrafts are releasing enough latent heat to self-sustain buoyancy.
  11. THere's a STRONG supercell west of Evansville, IN that doesn't even seem to be warned...
  12. That's those people's problem (unless you're working at NWS or media). Accurate debate is more important. And mesoscale topography influences whether or not t-storms form, whether or not a storm that forms is a supercell, and whether or not that supercell becomes tornadic. This is black-letter meteorology these days. That being said, the word is 'influence'. As someone who's had a close family member watch a (weak) tornado pass within 500 feet of them by a lakehouse in the mountains in New England, I get that just because something is less probable doesn't make it impossible.
  13. As it turns out based on more recent research, moderate elevation/topographic differences are highly relevant for tornadogenesis and do explain why storms always seem to "miss" certain areas. That doesn't mean topographically 'shielded' areas never see tornadoes; just that tornadoes are significantly more rare there.
  14. Sun out and wind l&v in lower Manattan. Front may be about to jump north a bit.
  15. March 23, in the mid AM.