Drz1111

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  1. It’s “reeks”, and if that’s the case, show your proof. Every guy posting forecasts on the internet, even guys with degrees, has their own set of pulled-out-of-their-ass model biases, and they’re mostly bullshit.
  2. That model error has a direction based on index state. That’s just not true. The model already takes into account the upper air pattern in solving the math. The storm path is no more likely to drift south or north.
  3. There’s no evidence to support your argument.
  4. Thank you for saying this. It’s a shame how moronic this board has gotten now that everyone with a pulse has migrated to twitter.
  5. There was obvious low level rotation and strong rising motion into a low ceiling when I passed through that storm about 15 miles west of there on the way home from out East. Told my wife it might drop something as we drove by and she told me to keep my ****ing storm chasing to my storm chasing trips and to keep driving, buster.
  6. Come on guys, stop posting the HWRF and treating it like something to take literally.
  7. Not really Floyd, Floyd was more of an ET transitioning storm with an approaching deep upper trough. The bend-back was earlier. That’s why Floyd had a PRE.
  8. If I had to guess - and I’m no pro, just a guy with a degree who went on to do other things - I bet this storm under performs in the Bahamas bc of interference with the upper air low and poor outflow to the north, and then as it nears the coast and crosses the Gulf Stream it gets its shit together and landfalls as a strong 2 / weak 3. Dry ambient airmass and warm SSTs should keep it small, though.
  9. So did Hugo, and to a lesser extent, Isabel.
  10. Not with the strong bend back west. This is the textbook setup for a robust pure-tropical landfall on the EC with a strong high blocking escape and close enough to the westerlies to ventilate the storm. That’s why, pre-modern modeling, this sort of track would’ve set off alarm bells for intensity.
  11. the shear and lapse rates come in a bit too late for a really good event, no? 3 hrs earler and it would be something.
  12. “Real” severe storm at the Battery in Manhattan. Branches blowing off trees and torrential rain. Second best storm of an active year.
  13. One thing I do notice that's a negative is that the LL winds aren't as backed as forecast.
  14. You're factually wrong. Look at the 12Z OKX sounding. The convective temp today is not very high.