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About Drz1111

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  1. Had 4 different species of warbler in the tree outside my window on saturday. In the middle of manhattan! Never seen anything like it.
  2. If the GFS phased/amplified/cutter comes to pass, it’s a textbook setup for a big freeze in the SE. You could even see a frost into central FL with that setup. Would be bad news agriculturally given how advanced everything is already.
  3. Cool, but you have issues with language and I'm clarifying for the people in the thread who don't.
  4. bluewave you seem like a bright guy so offering this up more so you know in the future. 'climate normals' is a term of art and is different from 'normal'. 'climate normal' is just a synonym for "average" or "arithmetic mean", but applied to a specific period of time. Generally in climatology when we speak of "normal" in the sense you're using it, we mean conditions that are within 1STDEV of the mean (most climate statistics in most locations are roughly normally distributed, so this conceptually works). In other words, it is common for NY to have below average snow, or above average snow, but still within the "normal" range. A year like 1997-1998, on the other hand, was both below average and not normal. I am aware meterologists use below normal as a shorthand for below average b/c of the NWS terminology and to make it easier to communicate to the public, but it's not a rigorous way to describe it and tends to blur the difference between events that are extraordinary and events that are typical.
  5. What is crazy about the bitching on this thread is that six of the last 20 years have had less snow, YTD, than this year. We’re not even more than 1SD below the mean. This is, mathematically, a normal year, albeit below average.
  6. Isn’t that a pretty good look for a pattern change? That’s the start of a disrupted polar vortex
  7. Lol at the idea this is a bust and that VBV is relevant to what’s happening. It’s not summer and this isn’t the high plains.
  8. Some of the more active updrafts seem to be "drilling down" through the inversion. IIRC there's a case study of that from an upper Midwest outbreak several years ago where conditions were otherwise quite favorable
  9. Totally disagree with this. Cool season setups with tons of low-level shear can produce strong tornadoes even out of radar imagery that looks "ugly".
  10. This strikes me as a warm-season plains chaser mindset, when this is a cool season Gulf Coast / Dixie Alley setup. "Widely visible tornadoes" isn't really relevant when storms are moving at warp speed and LCLs are scraping the ground.
  11. Pretty neat that there's a legit EML for this one . . . could favor a more discrete storm mode than is typical for outbreaks this time of year.
  12. It’s “reeks”, and if that’s the case, show your proof. Every guy posting forecasts on the internet, even guys with degrees, has their own set of pulled-out-of-their-ass model biases, and they’re mostly bullshit.
  13. That model error has a direction based on index state. That’s just not true. The model already takes into account the upper air pattern in solving the math. The storm path is no more likely to drift south or north.
  14. There’s no evidence to support your argument.