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About Drz1111

  1. A nice spin up literally went within a mile of the mount holly radar site.
  2. If you look at the HRRR, oddly enough its showing CAPE at the coast increasing toward sunset, even after peak heating. The storms in Central PA are initiating in that zone of slightly higher CAPE right now. It must be some sort of tiny wave that's enhancing lapse rates as it passes by.
  3. Beautiful example of a left mover just east of State College. There's just enough backing of winds with height to support that.
  4. Weird to see such strong inverted V soundings in this neck of the woods. Especially given how moist its been.
  5. Looks like the models have dialed down significantly on the cape for tomorrow due to dry air. Interestingly, they're showing inverted-v soundings, almost like a western US look, so could be gusty downbursts with any storm that does initiate.
  6. Yes. The Bombardier jets aren't designed to fly above 120 so when the temp gets close they have to cancel fights. Known issue with those planes.
  7. I'm surprised there isn't a marginal risk for tomorrow for the OKX area. Seems like all the CAMs initiate and the flow is pretty zippy in the mid-levels. I'd expect isolated severe wind, maybe even a few small hail stones here or there given that that it gets cool pretty quickly upstairs.
  8. I'm looking at that Jersey City cell now, and it looks like it's all outflow - it's spit out a shelf cloud and the cloud base is pretty high and ragged.
  9. Cool little storm split just happened down around Trenton. Some of the discrete storms are rotating weakly now.
  10. Agree. The CAMs were showing the best chance for good severe in the next two hours or so, where better bulk shear moves over the S/SSW flow along the coast. Obviously we have enough CAPE - the updrafts are strong enough that you can see the towers growing without a timelapse and the clouds are firmly defined.
  11. Plenty of towers going up over NE jersey now visible from my office, but they're straight up and down. Still don't have the bulk shear.
  12. I was just looking at the SPC mesonet page and you can see a subtle trough/windshift line right where those storms ahead of the main line are firing.
  13. Appalachian lee trough, I assume. Subtle forcing but enough on an uncapped day.
  14. Not unidirectional as you get closer to the coast: NEW YORK CITY PTSUNNY 86 71 60 S16G25 I'm really interested to see what these storms do when they tap into the strong backed flow along the coast.
  15. Rockland storm rotating weakly. Hmm.