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About Drz1111

  1. This is about as high as low level shear gets around here in a convective environment and models have been catching up to obs. If this were Sept we'd be having a tornado outbreak, at least by our standards - as it is we're still probably looking at a couple of weak TORs like they saw in the Carolinas today.
  2. Boy is there an absolute ton of low level shear around. If we get any surface-based convection during this event we're going to fire off some spinups.
  3. Impressive to post an image that proves the opposite of what you're trying to say.
  4. Even the GFS verbatim isn't a warm look, especially for highs.
  5. Especially since it took forever to detach from that trough. Sloppy rainmaker typhoon.
  6. Obs from Cork County are impressive. And temp humidity profiles sure seem like a sting airmass...
  7. Also, generally you'd also look for increased outgassing of SO2 as a sign things are getting close to popping. But on a highly active hydrologic environment like Agung, you might have ground water scrubbing the SO2 (and the steam is pretty much telling you that ground water is interacting with magma at depth, or at least with increased heat flux).
  8. Also, Agung is a bit of a funny volcano - it has a history of starting small and then building to a big eruption. Eruptive episodes are pretty long. And it's last eruption is far enough back that it predates all the modern work on harmonics and stuff so it's not like they have an analog to compare it to.
  9. 77 here in the south Bronx. And we're all schvitzing. Unprecedented weather for this time of year. Feels like a nice midsummer ballgame.
  10. If that comes to fruition there will be places all over the Northern Rockies with record early season snows. That's both a wet AND cold pattern for the high-terrain in WY/MT/ID.
  11. You are missing the point. This is science. You're pulling stuff out of your you-know-where.
  12. taking QPF literally is a bold strategy when you're on the east / warm-sector side of a TC undergoing ET transition. Let see how it goes for them.
  13. 1. All depends on location of loop current. As a general rule it's not necessarily true. 2. Wrong. 3. Yes. 4. Assertion without evidence. Probably wrong. 5. Hurricane models are good for what they're designed for. Globals are good for what they are designed for.
  14. Big monarch migration this year. Seen more today than in like last 3 years together.
  15. I mean, climatology is climatology.