MJO812 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 1 hour ago, MeteorologicalFan said: That GFS 18z run looked great for an early winter storm. 850’s are plenty of cold and storm track looks good. A bit of stale cold but I think if the storm comes in at night we can get some snow this weekend. Gfs lost the cutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 along with a lot of other things..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 4, 2018 Author Share Posted November 4, 2018 Larry Cosgrove holding his ground saying milder temperatures after Nov 13th until just after the new year in his weekly newsletter. But he does also mention that "could" change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 Next 8 days degs. averaging 51degs., or about 2degs. AN. RRWT is Normal for the next 30, and BN for the next 90 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 First 4 years in a row that NYC reached 70 degrees during the first week of November. # of 70 degree days in NYC Nov 1-7 since 1980: 2018....2 days so far 2017....2 2016....2 2015....5 2013....1 2005....1 2003....2 2001....1 1995....1 1994....4 1990....3 1987....1 1982....4 1981....2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 If NAM and ECMWF are most correct for Tuesday, would expect slight risk to get expanded into the region. Shear and forecast instability (for this time of year) are impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 Gefs is snowy for the interior in mid November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 Local rivers are all at near bankfull after most reached low to moderate flood stage yesterday. River flooding is going to be a major concern with more threats of heavy rain this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 November beach day. Dogs invited too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 Blue skies nothing but blue skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 Euro is cold next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 28 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro is cold next weekend Got rid of that late week cutter, looks like a transient but very cold shot of air. We saw something like this last year that obliterated any plant left standing. There's a legit shot at some snow too near mid-month. It's almost that time of year where threats are worth looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 Eps has some snow hits for our area near mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Got rid of that late week cutter, looks like a transient but very cold shot of air. We saw something like this last year that obliterated any plant left standing. There's a legit shot at some snow too near mid-month. It's almost that time of year where threats are worth looking at. That freeze last year was nuts. My veggie garden went from thriving to gone in a couple hours. Still haven’t had an official freeze in southern Nassau. A couple of 34s with frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 Pattern is as good as can be for mid month snow chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 4, 2018 Share Posted November 4, 2018 Some photos from today’s balmy late autumn day: Armonk, NY Armonk, NY Larchmont, NY Larchmont, NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 Next 8 days averaging 49degs., or just about NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 These November -EPO cold shots have been more common since 2013. Looks like the one this year will arrive just in time for the weekend. They also occurred in 2017, 2014, and 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 On 11/2/2018 at 5:41 PM, jfklganyc said: Driving through Queens today… Anybody else notice how astounding the colors are? I can’t remember a nicer day if you want to see color around the city. And right on schedule if not slightly early Yeah, in the 5 boros it seems almost completely devoid of color then it's like a switch flipped overnight to peak color. Early Nov is normal peak for NYC but to me it was much less gradual than usual. It went from next to nothing to amazing colors in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 2 hours ago, bluewave said: These November -EPO cold shots have been more common since 2013. Looks like the one this year will arrive just in time for the weekend. They also occurred in 2017, 2014, and 2013. The new Euro Seasonal makes that it`s 3 month focal point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 4 hours ago, CIK62 said: Next 8 days averaging 49degs., or just about NORMAL. The next 3 days are AN then this is what follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 24 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: The new Euro Seasonal makes that it`s 3 month focal point. Yeah, I just saw the new Euro monthlies. Another winter with a wall of -EPO/+PNA blocking. The Euro monthlies highest skill scores are with the EPO/PNA. But for some reason, the skill scores are lower on the Atlantic side with the NAO/AO phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, I just saw the new Euro monthlies. Another winter with a wall of -EPO/+PNA blocking. The Euro monthlies highest skill scores are with the EPO/PNA. But for some reason, the skill scores are lower on the Atlantic side with the NAO/AO phases. My analogs this winter have been 02/03 - 13/14 - 14/15. Just look at where we have been stuck since AUG It is very hard for me to find anything wrong so far. The Euro seasonal runs the table and the PAC says it has merit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 With 0.04" rain in the past hour, Islip's 2018 precipitation total has now reached 50". So far, Islip has recorded 50.03" precipitation this year, which ranks 2018 as the 15th wettest year on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Yeah, I just saw the new Euro monthlies. Another winter with a wall of -EPO/+PNA blocking. The Euro monthlies highest skill scores are with the EPO/PNA. But for some reason, the skill scores are lower on the Atlantic side with the NAO/AO phases. From the analogs posted in response to this, I assume this is good news for those of us who want a snowy winter? In other news the ECM, CMC and GFS are in strong agreement through 240 hours about the cold outbreak. GFS is the coldest for the NE, which is a little surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 On 10/30/2018 at 10:34 AM, bluewave said: There really is no correlation between snowfall before the last week of November and the seasonal snowfall. Whether it snows early is more a reflection of the fall pattern. 2011 and 2012 are a great example of this. Both years featured record early snows. One winter was one of our worst for seasonal snowfall. The other featured one of our greatest February blizzards of all time. that Feb 2013 snowstorm was really meh west of Suffolk County. Only a foot of snow and about an inch of rain to begin with lol. 2012-13 was more like an average season for us. March was cold but we whiffed on big snowfalls there too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 On 10/30/2018 at 7:39 AM, bluewave said: It does look like Sunday will have closer to seasonable temperatures for the marathon. But November should come in with above normal temperatures in its first few days. This was also a theme for 2015, 2016, and 2017. The pattern also looks very stormy with one cutter after another. So our 2018 wet pattern continues into November. Strong November cutter pattern Chris how long is the cold weather coming up next weekend supposed to last? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 On 10/30/2018 at 9:10 AM, Drz1111 said: You guys are silly bitching about cutters in Fall. They are climatologically favored by the wavelengths and average jet location. That’s why Denver has dual fall/spring snow maxima. Troughs tend to dig in the Plains from October to early December (Ridge-Trough-Ridge) and then mean troughiness moves to the east in a ridge-trough pattern for late December and Jan-Feb. It has always been thus. Enjoy your month of NW winds and stratocumulus. Sunday's weather was perfect. We've had more than enough rain for the whole year already. I want nice and dry and clear blue skies for October and November. Great for fall foliage and stargazing. Not rain and wall to wall SAD conditions lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 20 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: That freeze last year was nuts. My veggie garden went from thriving to gone in a couple hours. Still haven’t had an official freeze in southern Nassau. A couple of 34s with frost. No frost here in SW Nassau and the lowest we got to so far was 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 5, 2018 Share Posted November 5, 2018 2 hours ago, dWave said: Yeah, in the 5 boros it seems almost completely devoid of color then it's like a switch flipped overnight to peak color. Early Nov is normal peak for NYC but to me it was much less gradual than usual. It went from next to nothing to amazing colors in a few days. and yesterday's weather was PERFECT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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