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PB COLTS NECK NJ

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About PB COLTS NECK NJ

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBLM
  • Location:
    Colts Neck

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  1. PB COLTS NECK NJ

    Amazing 140%-175% Of Normal 2010's Seasonal Snowfall

    Gotta love this at 500
  2. PB COLTS NECK NJ

    Amazing 140%-175% Of Normal 2010's Seasonal Snowfall

    Can`t ask for better,
  3. PB COLTS NECK NJ

    Amazing 140%-175% Of Normal 2010's Seasonal Snowfall

    People laughed at DT`s 200 % of N forecast , I don`t think he`s going to be very far off. I want to include another analog year here . 02/03 49.3 inches - 191 % of N This is why I am at 50 inches + for the season and I know Don is too.
  4. PB COLTS NECK NJ

    November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    The Euro splits the cold into 2 - 3 day periods is because it cuts LP. The GFS is off to the east so the BN registers for 7 straight days. Even so , the EURO is not 1 to 2 days
  5. PB COLTS NECK NJ

    November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    What model does that ?
  6. PB COLTS NECK NJ

    November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    Good Afternoon Don it`s great to see you. Coming from you a 50 inch forecast deserves a wow. My range for NYC is between 40 - 50 inches which really would qualify as a great winter. I think the way things a progressing as well , Modoki / EP water temps / the cool water in the I/O and just the fact that the MJO has been really only coming out in 8 1 2 really since AUG it is my hope that it remains there. It is my hope we just stay in here going forward
  7. PB COLTS NECK NJ

    November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    Another week or 2 I believe.
  8. PB COLTS NECK NJ

    November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    Chirs , It`s why I a really like the winter at this range , the Euro sees the massive -EPO in the means with blocking over the top. I posted the D- F seasonal 500 `s and they are supported by the Modoki and warm waters S of the Aleutians. If you place that in the E/P and the values say that looks right then you are going to force the ridge over the top. I believe the values rival 02 at this point ? So it looks like 02/03 - 13/14 - 14/15. I like a fast starting Dec , a pull back in Jan and then a really good Feb / March. Saw posted a mix of Dec 63 / 95 at 500 away vs the Euro seasonal s at 500 , if you ever blended the 2 , I think people would take it.
  9. PB COLTS NECK NJ

    November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    A little heads up for those in the far interior and all the way into New England your seasons 1st snowstorm is on the way next Tuesday the 13th.
  10. PB COLTS NECK NJ

    ENSO 2018

    The 500`s are great in fact , I ignore all 2m , that`s not where the skill is at all. If you dig that kind of negative out near the Aleutians in the means you will dig a trough into the east and you will be humming this winter. The Euro`s greatest skill score is in the E/P and it tends to wash out troughs in the L/R on the E/C. If you drive a neg EPO in the means like that you will drive the ridge poleward and you will slide HP down the midsection and east. I love Dec/ Feb/ March. Big winter incoming for us.
  11. PB COLTS NECK NJ

    November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    Here is it`s new week 2 forecast , this will bust worse than last weeks week 2. It`s not just the weeklies Every model sees what`s coming before we moderate.
  12. PB COLTS NECK NJ

    November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    Why you should never ever use the CFS for anything. Here is it`s miss from 1 week out.
  13. PB COLTS NECK NJ

    November 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

    Will have to see if the back 5 erase the front 3.
  14. PB COLTS NECK NJ

    ENSO 2018

    Grit , you`re likely to get stuck in here for the next 4 months , it`s what the Euro seasonal sees. The Trough will end up in the east in the means D - F There isn`t much that point away from this solution, anyone in the lakes SE/MA/NE should get ready to enjoy 02/03- 13/14- 14/15.
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