gravitylover Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 54 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: When isn't it nice down there, other than the occasional tropical system? Which reminds me, family is coming up from there this weekend. Let the complaining begin! When it's just plain uncomfortably humid for weeks on end. Ooh boy pea soup fog and rain It's a beautiful day in the neighborhood... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 58 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Will have to see if the back 5 erase the front 3. These November -EPO cold shots into the US have been impressive since 2013. They have been pretty reliable with the NPM going through the roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Just now, bluewave said: These November -EPO cold shots into the US have been impressive since 2013. They have been pretty reliable with the NPM going through the roof. Chirs , It`s why I a really like the winter at this range , the Euro sees the massive -EPO in the means with blocking over the top. I posted the D- F seasonal 500 `s and they are supported by the Modoki and warm waters S of the Aleutians. If you place that in the E/P and the values say that looks right then you are going to force the ridge over the top. I believe the values rival 02 at this point ? So it looks like 02/03 - 13/14 - 14/15. I like a fast starting Dec , a pull back in Jan and then a really good Feb / March. Saw posted a mix of Dec 63 / 95 at 500 away vs the Euro seasonal s at 500 , if you ever blended the 2 , I think people would take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, gravitylover said: When it's just plain uncomfortably humid for weeks on end. Ooh boy pea soup fog and rain It's a beautiful day in the neighborhood... Just my opinion, but I would be chilling on a boat or the beach all year than sitting inside with the heater on for six months. Then when it's nice here, you cant even find a spot at the beach without being surrounded by tourists. I don't mind the cold TOO much, (every once in awhile is nice, and a little snow makes everything look amazing for pictures) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Pouring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Rain knocking on the door here. A little earlier than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 21 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: Just my opinion, but I would be chilling on a boat or the beach all year than sitting inside with the heater on for six months. Then when it's nice here, you cant even find a spot at the beach without being surrounded by tourists. I don't mind the cold TOO much, (every once in awhile is nice, and a little snow makes everything look amazing for pictures) There are plenty of beaches in the region where you wont be surrounded by others you just have to work for it a little bit although NJ is tougher than LI or RI. Cold is good, it keeps you humble and snow is necessary for a healthy psyche not to mention skiing and fat biking Don't get me wrong, the Lower Keys are high on our list for a landing spot when we move away from the NY Metro in a few years but the NH or ME coast are more likely but I won't be surprised if we find ourselves somewhere around Marathon or Big Pine Key. There's no part of FL that I would consider further north of there though, not even sort of... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Rainy year just keeps coming...already another 0.50" this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 November coming in with a bang, very active last few days. Big difference from early October. A lot of rain still to come with even more rain Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Where has Isotherm (Tom) been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 2 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Chirs , It`s why I a really like the winter at this range , the Euro sees the massive -EPO in the means with blocking over the top. I posted the D- F seasonal 500 `s and they are supported by the Modoki and warm waters S of the Aleutians. If you place that in the E/P and the values say that looks right then you are going to force the ridge over the top. I believe the values rival 02 at this point ? So it looks like 02/03 - 13/14 - 14/15. I like a fast starting Dec , a pull back in Jan and then a really good Feb / March. Saw posted a mix of Dec 63 / 95 at 500 away vs the Euro seasonal s at 500 , if you ever blended the 2 , I think people would take it. Yeah, Ben Noll posted the whole Euro seasonal update for anyone that didn’t get a chance to see them. It’s a very strong +NPM look like some elements we saw 13-14 and 14-15. https://mobile.twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1059526651762040833 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/2016JD025116 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: The CFS literally shows the opposite of what's going to happen, it's unbelievable how inaccurate it is. It's trash. I've stopped looking at it. It was calling for a major cooldown in September and completely missed the cold start to this month. The fantasy range GFS is considerably more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Where has Isotherm (Tom) been? He’s been around just not often here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Nam in particular was way off with todays rain...0.70" past two hours here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Pouring in Midtown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 11 minutes ago, doncat said: Nam in particular was way off with todays rain...0.70" past two hours here. Got more rain here than I thought too. I bet I've gotten at least a half inch. Getting a little break in the action soon, then another line of showers to arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 2 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: A little heads up for those in the far interior and all the way into New England your seasons 1st snowstorm is on the way next Tuesday the 13th. Hopefully we all cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 29 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: He’s been around just not often here Hope he does an outlook....his are the best imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hope he does an outlook....his are the best imo. Another week or 2 I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Another week or 2 I believe. Yea, his is always out about when mine is....I am tentatively going for a Monday release. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 LIC. 58 degrees. Rain. winds 15 to 18mph. Rain pelting the windows quite hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 3 hours ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Chirs , It`s why I a really like the winter at this range , the Euro sees the massive -EPO in the means with blocking over the top. I posted the D- F seasonal 500 `s and they are supported by the Modoki and warm waters S of the Aleutians. If you place that in the E/P and the values say that looks right then you are going to force the ridge over the top. I believe the values rival 02 at this point ? So it looks like 02/03 - 13/14 - 14/15. I like a fast starting Dec , a pull back in Jan and then a really good Feb / March. Saw posted a mix of Dec 63 / 95 at 500 away vs the Euro seasonal s at 500 , if you ever blended the 2 , I think people would take it. I like how things are evolving. Back on 10/31 in the AmWx temperature anomalies thread, I posted my early thinking in terms of seasonal snowfall and had 50" for NYC. The newest data gives me added confidence in that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 20 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: I like how things are evolving. Back on 10/31 in the AmWx temperature anomalies thread, I posted my early thinking in terms of seasonal snowfall and had 50" for NYC. The newest data gives me added confidence in that idea. Good Afternoon Don it`s great to see you. Coming from you a 50 inch forecast deserves a wow. My range for NYC is between 40 - 50 inches which really would qualify as a great winter. I think the way things a progressing as well , Modoki / EP water temps / the cool water in the I/O and just the fact that the MJO has been really only coming out in 8 1 2 really since AUG it is my hope that it remains there. It is my hope we just stay in here going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Models have backed off on the extent of the cold blast and it looks like a quick 1-2 day shot. Fairly substantial warming looking likely for 2nd half of November. Also they're showing another coastal hugger early next week, which I'll admit is worrisome going forward. Could the hugger be the main track this season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Models have backed off on the extent of the cold blast and it looks like a quick 1-2 day shot. Fairly substantial warming looking likely for 2nd half of November. Also they're showing another coastal hugger early next week, which I'll admit is worrisome going forward. Could the hugger be the main track this season? What model does that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 5 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: What model does that ? Euro moves the cold in and out for next Tuesday/Wednesday. Gfs does too though it lingers a bit more. Just going off the OP runs here. It makes sense given the more unfavorable teleconnections for 2nd half of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Models have backed off on the extent of the cold blast and it looks like a quick 1-2 day shot. Fairly substantial warming looking likely for 2nd half of November. Also they're showing another coastal hugger early next week, which I'll admit is worrisome going forward. Could the hugger be the main track this season? Chill out, cutters are more then normal during fall . I can see the panick already it’s November 6th R-E-L-A-X.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Euro moves the cold in and out for next Tuesday/Wednesday. Gfs does too though it lingers a bit more. It makes sense given the more unfavorable teleconnections for 2nd half of November. The Euro splits the cold into 2 - 3 day periods is because it cuts LP. The GFS is off to the east so the BN registers for 7 straight days. Even so , the EURO is not 1 to 2 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 6, 2018 Share Posted November 6, 2018 1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: The Euro splits the cold into 2 - 3 day periods is because it cuts LP. The GFS is off to the east so the BN registers for 7 straight days. Even so , the EURO is not 1 to 2 days I agree that surface temps will still average BN for that period given averages are in the 50s. Regardless, I'm not worried because November is not a winter month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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