forkyfork Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 it's not impossible to see a slight shift back east tonight/tomorrow. that's why the nhc doesn't make drastic shifts with each update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Looks a tick east - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 38 minutes ago, bobbutts said: They were hit directly by Charley in 2004 and I don't recall it being a big problem. http://allears.net/news/hurricane.htm Found this article stating that many attractions opened the next day. I was in Disney the day after charley and It was humming along. There was a lot of tree damage around Orlando as you could imagine. But life went on in the magic kingdom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherboy80 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Mean track is pretty awful for Miami area according to this Barring a decent shift, we will be wobble watching like crazy in a couple days. Plenty of potential western coast tracks showing up now. Interesting how they are pretty much a NNW through the state instead of N or NNE now (capture by the cutoff I assume). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Cuban Radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 7 minutes ago, forecasterjack said: Cloud tops now below -80C NE of the eye. This thing has a looooong way to go https://weather.us/satellite/turks-and-caicos/top-alert-superhd-5min.html#play Looks to me like in the last couple frames the eye is shrinking as well. Maybe I'm just losing my mind but I swear that's what it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Further west track increases chance of more interaction with Cuba/possible weakening. Downside is unless it gets far enough West into the Gulf, the eastern eyewall could just rake the cities on SW FL coast on a NNW track without much weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 The timing and duration of the northern turn and then the timing of the westward bend is so critical. It just seems like a very difficult track to forecast. So far, it's been on a general westward motion with degrees of more northern and southern jogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 6 minutes ago, Chattownsnow said: Looks to me like in the last couple frames the eye is shrinking as well. Maybe I'm just losing my mind but I swear that's what it looks like. I noticed that too....Should soon see with next vortex message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Storm looks like it's almost moving due west now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 30 minutes ago, EasternLI said: Seems like you can see the physical size actually increasing right now on the animated loop. Also, Turks and Caicos are taking one on the chin right now. It's the first piece of land , that's tasted IRMA's true surge. Even all the islands hit yesterday...were either a direct hit or only got brushed on the south or west end. Just to the right of a hurricane = worst surge. wouldn't be surprised if their seeing a 20 to 25 foot surge. Think about how long this waters been gathering up on it's right side...about a week now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 I was in Disney the day after charley and It was humming along. There was a lot of tree damage around Orlando as you could imagine. But life went on in the magic kingdom. Charley had a very small wind field and I-4 was kind of the dividing line between who got damage and who didn't. I was on the 'got damage' side.Oddly, Hurricane Erin in '95 is the only central Fl hurricane that really impacted the parks. Sea World didn't open day after until 2 because it took us that long to remove over 100 downed trees and shredded roofing from the ski stadium. Back to lurking...Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, psv88 said: Storm looks like it's almost moving due west now. Almost...still gaining latitude..just slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 The Turks and Caicos islands just went through the RFQ. Wonder how they faired. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just eyeballing the 18z GEFS ensembles compared to the 18Z GFS the OP looks to be on the left of that guidance prior to the N turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Only a partial pass, but boy that does not look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, andyhb said: Only a partial pass, but boy that does not look good. Not look good as in structure, or in tragedy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 3 minutes ago, MattPetrulli said: Not look good as in structure, or in tragedy? Well that is a massive secondary eyewall that looks to be taking over, so it only means further expansion of the wind fields and likely further strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just now, andyhb said: Well that is a massive secondary eyewall that looks to be taking over, so it only means further expansion of the wind fields and likely further strengthening. that looks very very saucy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, dan11295 said: Just eyeballing the 18z GEFS ensembles compared to the 18Z GFS the OP looks to be on the left of that guidance prior to the N turn. Honestly, I think the ensembles lose a bit of value for S FL at this point. 12z GFS probably the east boundary, 12z UK the West. Won't know for sure the track until that turn begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 9 minutes ago, Hazey said: The Turks and Caicos islands just went through the RFQ. Wonder how they faired. Yikes. Yeah, looks like it will be pretty bad. I spent the day on Grand Turk while on a cruise. All, low lying ground with no where to hide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Edit: Updated. Sorry put wrong map at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, andyhb said: Well that is a massive secondary eyewall that looks to be taking over, so it only means further expansion of the wind fields and likely further strengthening. That and the extremely juiced returns in the dark reds and blacks. Never seen black on the microwave before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 1 minute ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: That and the extremely juiced returns in the dark reds and blacks. Never seen black on the microwave before. Irma is just moving into the warmest waters it's encountered too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 2 minutes ago, bobbutts said: 24 hr ago It's useful in a sense. Looks like most of these models were slightly too far NE with the center yesterday compared to where it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 guys and gals, not sure how relevant this is to the discussion, but we've had a couple of X-class and a couple of M-class solar flares over the last 36 hours (one of which was an X-9). I know this won't directly affect Irma itself. But we've been apparently been wavering between a G-2 and G-4 geomagnetic storm over the last few hours, and may do so for another 24-48 hours. this type of geomagnetic storm may affect satellites and their data, as well as some radio transmissions. hopefully this doesn't degrade any data we will be getting on Irma (and Jose and Katia) from up top for the next few days, when we need it the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Just want to say I appreciate all the Mets along with all the great posters on here. Makes dealing with these kinds of events much easier when you have the best information. I'll be happy when it's over, already been a long week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazy4Wx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 I haven't seen her look this heathy since right before she hit the Leeward Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
otown Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 11 minutes ago, AcePuppy said: Edit: Updated. Sorry put wrong map at first. Maybe I've looked at too many models the past couple of days & I'm going crazy but doesn't this look like its pushing east again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 15 minutes ago, andyhb said: Only a partial pass, but boy that does not look good. Well it's unfortunate that it's partial coverage, but yeah, I'm not seeing much of IEW in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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