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Everything posted by weatherboy80

  1. OK - just went through a tornadic (warned) cell here in Melbourne that was nasty. Strong winds and power flashes!
  2. Been warning after warning here for us in Melbourne!
  3. You still in Cape Canaveral - I'm in Suntree/Viera!
  4. Was this really all that different from the 12Z Euro run - looks pretty close for the most part
  5. Plenty of potential western coast tracks showing up now. Interesting how they are pretty much a NNW through the state instead of N or NNE now (capture by the cutoff I assume).
  6. As stated above, increasing chances that I'll be here on the Space Coast in the condo (mainland) I mentioned above. Don't like being on the eastern right side (that can certainly change), but right now I'm not sure out-of-town in Tampa is that much better of an option considering the drive and the strong possibility of not being able to get back.
  7. Actually quite a bit west @54 h - almost in line with the Euro right?
  8. It will interesting to watch how much it moves back almost due like some of the runs are showing (i.e. latest Euro). Even without a direct Cuban landfall I'd imagine "some" amount of disruption.
  9. 12Z EPS looks clustered just east of Marathon and then up the spine. Not too far off from the OP run.
  10. Oh yeah, no doubt - thanks. The condo roof was installed before Matthew which didn't test it too much since he stayed just offshore. Nice thing about the condo option is that its on the first floor and almost feels like a bunker. It's actually my in-laws place, but I also have my primary home (buillt in 2001) nearby that had a new shingle roof installed just 2 months ago! Another one to test, but if I were to stay I'd take my chances at the condo - feels more sturdy to me.
  11. I'm on the Space Coast in Melbourne, but on the mainland away from the Intercoastal and the ocean by several miles. I have two options on the table as I have a sturdy 2003 built condo that has 2 stories made of both concrete block (verified this yesterday) is on the bottom floor and is between units on both sides. I'm not worried about surge or even inland flooding at this location. Plus it has a rand new roof. The windows and patio are covered with metal shutters. Have several days worth of food and water ready to go. The other option is that I have a hotel booked beginning Sat north of the Tampa airport (well inland again). My concern is what the Euro just showed that we can't rule out a ride up the entire state so both coasts would be impacted. Thoughts?
  12. If that happens I wonder what kind of weakening we will see before this thing gets to Orlando or the Space Coast. Charlie even did a number on the Orlando area as a compact storm. It's inland has quite a bit more trees and some older houses
  13. Yeah - too much can still happen with that trof hanging back a bit. As emphasized by the 06Z GEFS the spread is quite large. Is there any other solution showing that yet? Curious to see what the 12Z Euro does now.
  14. Most of those are heavily weighted towards the OP GFS correct? I know the 06Z GFS OP came way east from the 00Z, but if you look at the GFES members the spread increased dramatically! I wonder if NHC will bite on 06Z or wait for more trends to move the track slightly NE. So many things still on the table.
  15. Interesting - hmmm definitely a slight westerly shift in the GEFS at 18Z from 12Z with many more members in the Gulf even with the slightly northerly track early on. Still way up in the air. BTW, I'm in Melbourne, FL (mainland side) and have a hotel booked in Tampa just in case. I figure I'd try give myself options on either coast just to be safe and to beat the rush from folks in S FL the next few days. If it rides the spine I guess I'll just stay here
  16. How has the UKMET verified with this storm? Both it and their ensembles were way south of the rest!
  17. Yup, figured as much. I don't think NHC will do "much" with the track at 5 PM until we see the the next set of 00 Z runs w/ more data ... Any Hispaniola and/or then Cuba interaction down the road will be the biggest wildcard
  18. Correct me if I'm wrong, but it still looks like 12Z EPS is slightly west of the 12Z OP (and for that matter the 00Z EPS?) with the track up the west coast of FL or the spine?
  19. GEFS really not all that different from the 06Z with perhaps a tighter clustering into the Keys and S FL ...
  20. Still huge run to run differences in the upper level pattern > 120 hrs ...
  21. Correct - More or less the same through 72
  22. Actually slightly north through 36-48h ...