WishingForWarmWeather Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I'm starting to think it's more likely a west shift is more likely which would help but then somewhere like Naples or Fort Myers may be in trouble. A west shift though could get this over Cuba for a time and maybe knock it down. Now sure how much though What guidance are you using to make this decision, so that I may look at it as well? Trying to learn as much as I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: I have followed tropical meteorologist my whole life and have chased several hurricanes. The last one being Katrina. I have said to my friends my whole life (Im 60) that a sub 925mb hurricane coming in just south of Miami and moving due north along the whole Gold Coast and beyond, with the eye along the coast or 5-10 miles west would be the most devastating hurricane disaster the country could ever have. I always consider the odds of that happening of perhaps once in 500 years. Other than a Richter Scale 9 earthquake or an atomic bomb I can't think of a worse scenario. Up until this afternoons Euro and GFS run I didn't think it would happen. It still probably will not work out quite this way. I just can't wrap my head around that 18Z GFS track. Just move it back east 50 miles and keep the coast on the left side of the eye..... We are in the Euro's and GFS's wheelhouse now, so I would think that track deviations should be minor from this point on until landfall in S FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 The 18Z GEFS keeps Irma out of Cuba. It is a tick west of the 12Z run in regard to LF in FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 What guidance are you using to make this decision, so that I may look at it as well? Trying to learn as much as I can. It starts with Eur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 6h6 hours ago Our forecast yesterday MORNING BEFORE NHC was near Miami. Did not change it this am. I'm In private sector? What is my reason? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 6h6 hours ago Our forecast yesterday MORNING BEFORE NHC was near Miami. Did not change it this am. I'm In private sector? What is my reason? DRaw a freaking legible map joe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just heard that my son-in laws family members that live in Coral Springs, Fl, someone tried to steal the hurricane shutters off their house. Desperate times, their kids put a sign on the shutters to please not steal them. How sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 6h6 hours ago Our forecast yesterday MORNING BEFORE NHC was near Miami. Did not change it this am. I'm In private sector? What is my reason? Might want to reevaluate that, especially post landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 6h6 hours ago Our forecast yesterday MORNING BEFORE NHC was near Miami. Did not change it this am. I'm In private sector? What is my reason? lol...what a clown. accuweather is a trash organization, period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 12Z ECMWF shows Irma's hurricane force wind gusts spanning the entire width of Florida on Sunday. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/814-w-261-n/gusts-3h-mph/20170910-1800z.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catdaddyfalcon15 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, mriceyman said: DRaw a freaking legible map joe for real. which line is joe's predicted path. the center one? :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said: lol...what a clown. accuweather is a trash organization, period. Wrong organization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catdaddyfalcon15 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said: lol...what a clown. accuweather is a trash organization, period. I still like Bernie rayno though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, forecasterjack said: 12Z ECMWF shows Irma's hurricane force wind gusts spanning the entire width of Florida on Sunday. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/814-w-261-n/gusts-3h-mph/20170910-1800z.html I guess that track would still be very bad but not quite catastrophic due to the east eyewall going just west of the urban S FL corridor and the west coast still being on the left side of the eye. The eye itself would go over the Everglades and otherwise sparsely populated areas. But "not catastrophic" would still be 100+ mph onshore gusts from MIA to PBI. And further west then puts Tampa and Ft Myers under the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, bdgwx said: The 18Z GEFS keeps Irma out of Cuba. It is a tick west of the 12Z run in regard to LF in FL. The mean track looks slightly less severe for MIA proper, and makes me more nervous for TB if further shifts materialize. Self interests aside, TBH I'd rather it hit the Gulf Coast than what the 18z GFS showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forecasterjack Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, jm1220 said: I guess that track would still be very bad but not quite catastrophic due to the east eyewall going just west of the urban S FL corridor and the west coast still being on the left side of the eye. The eye itself would go over the Everglades and otherwise sparsely populated areas. But "not catastrophic" would still be 100+ mph onshore gusts from MIA to PBI. And further west then puts Tampa and Ft Myers under the gun. yeah you're right maybe not quite as bad as a landfall 10mi SW of Miami, but still. If that's looking like a "good" scenario, something's really really wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Seems like you can see the physical size actually increasing right now on the animated loop. Also, Turks and Caicos are taking one on the chin right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, EasternLI said: Seems like you can see the physical size actually increasing right now on the animated loop. Also, Turks and Caicos are taking one on the chin right now. That west bend definitely saved Provenciales the worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 102 peak surface per recon...917.8 extRap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, friedmators said: 102 peak surface per recon...917.8 extRap 102? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Also definitely a west tick on the last few frames as well as an expansion west of the CDO and outflow. Some models hinted at a bend back west north of Hispaniola, maybe this is it. And if that's the case, a track east of FL becomes much less likely. A track up the west coast of FL is still in the realm of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, TPAwx said: The mean track looks slightly less severe for MIA proper, and makes me more nervous for TB if further shifts materialize. Self interests aside, TBH I'd rather it hit the Gulf Coast than what the 18z GFS showed. Very misleading looking at that for other than the track, unless one believes a ~980 mb MSLP with winds of less than 50 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: 102? That's what I see. But blatant ERC ongoing, probably the main reason for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Definite westward movement recently.IR continues to look improved as well. If that inner core can clean up, should see strengthening tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Double wind max evident in SE quadrant per recon... into NW eye wall now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarbondaleWX Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 22 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 6h6 hours ago Our forecast yesterday MORNING BEFORE NHC was near Miami. Did not change it this am. I'm In private sector? What is my reason? What in the world? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 146kt FL winds and ~140kt SFMR in northwest eye wall still... double wind max also apparent in this quadrant as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: That's what I see. But blatant ERC ongoing, probably the main reason for that. 139 peak on the other side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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