Jfreebird Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 I know i did a poor job of the overlay but this is the 00z and 12z euro members combined together.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, AcePuppy said: I have a lot of friends I went to high school with that still live down there, mostly in Palm Beach and Broward, but they all live near the coast. They are leaving thankfully though. 1 minute ago, psv88 said: Agree. I pointed that out to hammer your point home, the vast majority of members are at or west of MIA Smart move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, bobbutts said: If people are able to stay up late the roads should be far less busy overnight. People like to do things during the daytime. This is true, but I guess it all depends when people start to get in the mode of thinking it's time to leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, AcePuppy said: This is true, but I guess it all depends when people start to get in the mode of thinking it's time to leave. My father left Naples at 2 am and got to Macon, GA around 1:30 pm. He said traffic was fine until about Gainesville, when it became bumper to bumper. Right now by Macon hes crawling north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, psv88 said: My father left Naples at 2 am and got to Macon, GA around 1:30 pm. He said traffic was fine until about Gainesville, when it became bumper to bumper. Right now by Macon hes crawling north. Good to hear that he left. Life is precious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Would have thought that the EURO track would have less impact inland in Georgia than the GFS coast hugger run. Perhaps not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Z-Cast Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 you can see irma already growing in size as it pulls away from the DR. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-rb-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 IR and Vis seem to show the eye has become much more circular and stable over the last hour. (Punch hole eye)...might see some slight strengthening over next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 The 12Z UKMET has LF on the west tip of FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said: Would have thought that the EURO track would have less impact inland in Georgia than the GFS coast hugger run. Perhaps not? Is this because of barcolinic and extra tropical transition? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LandofLincoln Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: IR and Vis seem to show the eye has become much more circular and stable over the last hour. (Punch hole eye)...might see some slight strengthening over next few hours. It's about to head into some of the most prime SSTs out there, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jfreebird Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 are the euro models lacking on intensity on this run.. most all show cat 2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: Is this because of barcolinic and extra tropical transition? Perhaps, beyond my meager skill level. Do know that much has to do with strong high pressure wedging down the apps, along with the storm moving inland at a fairly quick pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Just now, LandofLincoln said: It's about to head into some of the most prime SSTs out there, isn't it? Pretty much. From here to landfall, SST's and TCHP values will more or less, steadily increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, Jfreebird said: are the euro models lacking on intensity on this run.. most all show cat 2-3 Not sure what this is,it says valid for the 17th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 FWIW, the 18z NAM is back further north, about brush the E coast of FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 just beautiful on visible the past few frames, going to be a massive storm as it nears cuba. and it is still slightly ne of the forecast track. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=11L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
otown Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 1 minute ago, jaxjagman said: Not sure what this is,it says valid for the 17th Probably Jose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 18 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said: Would have thought that the EURO track would have less impact inland in Georgia than the GFS coast hugger run. Perhaps not? The infrastructure damage to utility lines is going to be immense. Millions without power maybe for many days. Cellular communication will start to fold the day after as generators run out of fuel and bandwidth gets squeezed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jfreebird Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, jaxjagman said: Not sure what this is,it says valid for the 17th it is a zoom in for the 12z euro ensembles through 240 hrs thats why it says the 9/17 it took another screenshot to provide more info and brought it back to just after landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Hurricane Irma is getting close to Grand Turk Island (Turks and Caicos.) the eye is centered near 71W, 21N, and that is close to 21°28′20″N 71°08′20″W , the coordinates of Grand Turk. It's difficult to even see Grand Turk on satellite images-- Caicos largest island shows up at 71.8W, 21.8N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: just beautiful on visible the past few frames, going to be a massive storm as it nears cuba. and it is still slightly ne of the forecast track. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=11L&invest=NO&zoom=4&img=1&vars=11111000000000000000000&loop=0 This is another good resource if you want a close up - http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_01&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=120&loop_speed_ms=80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 38 minutes ago, bobbutts said: If people are able to stay up late the roads should be far less busy overnight. People like to do things during the daytime. I'm waiting for the 0z EPS before I pull the trigger. If the mean maintains or shifts West from 12z, I'm out. Destination is two hours north, which will also likely get nailed but it won't be under water if there is more westward trending. Assuming roads will be reasonable at 4am. They will be an absolute nightmare Friday and Saturday once the general public sees the model trends translated to mainstream and social media. Did a sample around downtown last hour and nobody had a clue about the shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 The EPS mean ( blue line) looks a little further to the east than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Hurricane Irma is getting close to Grand Turk Island (Turks and Caicos.) the eye is centered near 71W, 21N, and that is close to 21°28′20″N 71°08′20″W , the coordinates of Grand Turk. It's difficult to even see Grand Turk on satellite images-- Caicos largest island shows up at 71.8W, 21.8N.Yeah they are going to get a shellacking but everyone is weenieing out over Florida so it's kinda get lost in the shuffle. The smaller island is only 15-20ft asl so that's a big problem for those folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, Jfreebird said: it is a zoom in for the 12z euro ensembles through 240 hrs thats why it says the 9/17 it took another screenshot to provide more info and brought it back to just after landfall As others have said, don't put a lot of stock in the model intensities, especially when it's not shown to be moving over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 According to the Euro wind shear should stay manageable until Irma hits the Straights of Florida at which point its interaction with the trough should start causing some mid and deep layer shear, but it does appear there is a chance Irma could cross the strait without getting battered too much while at the same time getting an upper level divergence boost from the jet streak. It's a pretty narrow window of time in which that would happen, if it happens at all, but it could get timed well enough to be a serious problem. We'll see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, Chinook said: Hurricane Irma is getting close to Grand Turk Island (Turks and Caicos.) the eye is centered near 71W, 21N, and that is close to 21°28′20″N 71°08′20″W , the coordinates of Grand Turk. It's difficult to even see Grand Turk on satellite images-- Caicos largest island shows up at 71.8W, 21.8N. Oddly the island reported 18 kt winds an hour ago, the most recent ob. http://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/dominican-republic-haiti.php?icao=MBGT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
otown Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Can anyone break down the different probabilities of what will occur? OTS, Miami hit then ride coast, spine, west LF, etc or do we just not know at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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