PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 10 minutes ago, Fozz said: Kind of like how the warmest December on record was followed by a HECS the following month. The spring lovers celebrated too soon. I said weeks ago whoever calls for a shutout in March because warmest February is making a ballsy call (1932 being the most obvious example). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 25 minutes ago, Ji said: someone just put this in the valley. With a sign that says, cannot use before Wednesday, 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: Eh. As others have said before, a suppressed solution can happen. The "it cant because its March" theory doesnt hold much water. Im now known as the Binghamton guy so theres that. I think it holds plenty of water. If it didn't we'd have arctic air masses and cold fronts all the way to Miami in the summertime. Saying it can't is an absolute that I don't think anybody has said. Probably not. Yeah, I'll stand behind that. Does it mean that it won't? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 This is pretty crazy Canada is pretty cold as many have stated. Thought this post from Ryan was very visual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 2 minutes ago, frd said: This is pretty crazy Canada is pretty cold as many have stated. Thought this post from Ryan was very visual With record low Arctic sea ice, how the heck does that even happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 18 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z UKIE at 96 has a 1013 SLP in C VA... which is the Friday storm, if there is one. 144 h5 pattern looks good... I think? It looks to me like the UKIE suppresses the Sunday storm. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod2=gfs&run2=12&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&lang=en&map=na&stn=PNM&run=12&mod=ukmet&hh=144&comp=2&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&date_type=dateo GFS UKMET CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I think it holds plenty of water. If it didn't we'd have arctic air masses and cold fronts all the way to Miami in the summertime. Saying it can't is an absolute that I don't think anybody has said. Probably not. Yeah, I'll stand behind that. Does it mean that it won't? No. I get it...its just tough to call a model wrong before something happens. But yeah, we know the Canadian can be pretty inaccruate but Im sure its had some scores too....the Euro was suppressed too yesterday wasnt it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 12z GEFS mean looks tasteh through 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 ukie gives support to canadian - can the euro hold or does it also wash out our storm? we will seeSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: I get it...its just tough to call a model wrong before something happens. But yeah, we know the Canadian can be pretty inaccruate but Im sure its had some scores too....the Euro was suppressed too yesterday wasnt it? I'm sure it could be right. It's a long way out. But it seems to me that a bias of the models is to over do cold air push and depth of low heights to our north and east. The euro being the least biased in that regard. Right now, I'm sure nothing is out of the realm, but you can't hate where we sit right now. Put another way, if you were on the southern edge of potential snowfall, how comfortable would you feel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 A little worrying that the UK is suppressed. Normally, it foreshadows the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 6, 2017 Author Share Posted March 6, 2017 Just now, stormtracker said: A little worrying that the UK is suppressed. Normally, it foreshadows the Euro Not just suppressed but completely squashes and shears out the vort, that would be the risk to me, if the system is healthy and at all amplified it will get here, there is some truth to the March thing, but the problem is if the system is sheared out and weak or weakening then yes it can get bullied south by the flow and either stay south as a weak event or get completely washed out to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 If the euro suppresses this I'm gonna fully melt down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: A little worrying that the UK is suppressed. Normally, it foreshadows the Euro Hopefully this is just a replay of everyone's favorite script - GFS finds, no Euro. Euro finds, GFS drops. Third act, GFS caves, storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Some pattern stuff. Decent overlap of dates but most of the biggest Mar storms covered two days so not the same list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not just suppressed but completely squashes and shears out the vort, that would be the risk to me, if the system is healthy and at all amplified it will get here, there is some truth to the March thing, but the problem is if the system is sheared out and weak or weakening then yes it can get bullied south by the flow and either stay south as a weak event or get completely washed out to nothing. This has been a problem all winter so it can't be totally discounted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 FYI -- member e12 of the 12z GEFS has the snowstorm Day 7-8... 6"+... even though it shows nothing through 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 GEFS upping the ante in the d10-12 period. This will most likely be the weeniest run yet based on how it looks through d12. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Oh the highs and the lows lol. Euro better deliver or the panic will begin Watch it be 100 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS upping the ante in the d10-12 period. This will most likely be the weeniest run yet based on how it looks through d12. lol That is a seriously weenie snowfall mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A zonal flow is expected for Thursday through Friday. A weak area of low pressure will likely pass through the area Thursday night into Friday...bringing the chance for showers. There may even be enough cold air for snow showers to mix in across the northern Maryland...but surface temps should remain above freezing. Exact timing of this system remains uncertain due to the fact that it is a zonal flow and it is still a few days away. A westerly downsloping flow should allow for temps to be above climo Thursday with max temps ranging from the lower 50s across northern Maryland to the mid and upper 60s in central Virginia. A cold front will drop to the south Friday as the low departs the area. The timing of the low will affect the exact position of the front. Latest guidance does have the front farther south which would bring noticeably chillier conditions over the area. Did tweak temps down from previous forecasts...but not quite as cold as some of the guidance is suggesting. Certainty in temperature forecast is low. Canadian high pressure will build toward the area Friday night...bringing unseasonably chilly conditions. A stronger area of low pressure will develop in the Plains Saturday before tracking nearby or to our south Saturday night into Sunday. Latest guidance shows upper-level low pressure over the Hudson Bay with a strong blocking high over Greenland. This should allow for Canadian high pressure to remain to our north. If this falls into place...then the system will likely track farther south and there would be enough cold air for snow. Will have to continue to monitor this over the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: GEFS upping the ante in the d10-12 period. This will most likely be the weeniest run yet based on how it looks through d12. lol Looks as if the GFS is all in. Now it is time to see if the Euro is going to raise, call or fold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 So GFS: 6-12", jackpot slightly south. Para GFS: 0-12", sharp gradient with jackpot in Central PA CMC: Completely suppressed and sheared out system. Flurries. UKMET: Suppressed and sheared out. Euro: generally 5-10" areawide. EPS and GEFS: supportive of OP for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 35 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Awful model. Is it ever right? Are we counting this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: That is a seriously weenie snowfall mean. First time this year my yard has been 9"+ on the means. The bigger they are the hard they fall. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 Needless to say this is the best pattern we've seen all year. Doesn't mean we get snow but at least there is a good shot at it. Here's our CWG article on the event. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/03/06/winters-revenge-snow-possible-this-coming-weekend/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, usedtobe said: Needless to say this is the best pattern we've seen all year. Doesn't mean we get snow but at least there is a good shot at it. Here's our CWG article on the event. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/03/06/winters-revenge-snow-possible-this-coming-weekend/ An article from Wes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 6, 2017 Share Posted March 6, 2017 1 minute ago, usedtobe said: Needless to say this is the best pattern we've seen all year. Doesn't mean we get snow but at least there is a good shot at it. Here's our CWG article on the event. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/03/06/winters-revenge-snow-possible-this-coming-weekend/ Thanks, Wes. Guess snow is on the table if you see something positive in the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.