Cold Miser Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Haha yeah I know, and it's been boring as all hell for 6 months so it seems different with a tropical storm. But even folks just discussing models at day 8-10 get ragged on all winter for discussing verbatim outcomes, even if it's just model talk. You can tell we are all itchy for even day 8 fantasy storms. #longrangewinterthreatsmatter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There'd be quite a bit of damage with that..981and it transitioning ET with expanding wind field and gradient Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Oh, this could be a long week. Like to see Euro start speeding things up and caving in to the GFS. I think all we can say with some assurity is that early next week we will have a hurricane moving NW,N, or NE out of the Bahamas. Timing of large scale features will determine the track as it gets north of the Bahamas. In reality we should start looking late this weekend for model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 CMC GEFS meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Matthew now Cat 1 Hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 My concern is growing. An initially expanding ridge to the N isn't just going to weaken go poof and move out. I'm not buying the abrupt right turn. Possibly could be more stout than currently depicted thus incorporate a gradual NW track instead. Models could be playing catch-up come later tomorrow and Saturday. SNE not-so-much, but down here it's an aspect to watch. Nice round of boomers has turned into a nice cool rain. Feels nice and refreshing. Boy I miss the change of seasons. 90 by day and 70 at night constant swamp-arz with no color change just doesn't cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: Haha yeah I know, and it's been boring as all hell for 6 months so it seems different with a tropical storm. But even folks just discussing models at day 8-10 get ragged on all winter for discussing verbatim outcomes, even if it's just model talk. You can tell we are all itchy for even day 8 fantasy storms. L-l-l-l-l-l--ock it! too soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Euro coming in faster and N & W of 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Euro coming in faster and N & W of 00z I get Euro on Weatherbell but it seems it didn't run right at least on that site so can't see it today so far. Thanks for the update. I was wondering if the Euro would start coming around to the GFS. Keep us updated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 12z Euro is moving more towards the GFS this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Just now, wxeyeNH said: I get Euro on Weatherbell but it seems it didn't run right at least on that site so can't see it today so far. Thanks for the update. I was wondering if the Euro would start coming around to the GFS. Keep us updated! Just NE of Grand Bahama at 192h by about 50mi. S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 928mb on day 9. Due S and E of a line from Outer Banks and Jacksonville, FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 might be halloween by the time it gets to us on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 928mb on day 9. Due S and E of a line from Outer Banks and Jacksonville, FL. 928....OUCH!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 And OTS on day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: And OTS on day 10. Too slow. Trough is a kicker instead of phasing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Really close to being captured at 216.....pretty big shift toward the west....and the 12z GFS Op.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said: Too slow. Trough is a kicker instead of phasing in. Can't see Euro but all and all was it quicker in getting the storm up to the Bahamas than previous run? I guess if the trend of a faster storm getting north it might have a better chance of having the trough bringing it more N verses OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 6 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: Really close to being captured at 216.....pretty big shift toward the west....and the 12z GFS Op.... See that interaction then the kicker really ramps up the 200-300mb westerlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 54 minutes ago, klw said: L-l-l-l-l-l--ock it! too soon? Cant come soon enough haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 There are some pretty big differences with 500 heights over the Northeast too. GFS builds in some high heights after this upper low kicks out, the Euro keeps them lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 the euro looks way too slow. matthew stalls like 5 times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Wild swings on the Kuro the last few days. Hazel reborn, then zero chance of any impact, then damage for all, etc. etc. GFS was fun. Good to see the Euro actually getting out of the Bahamas at the end of its run, though still think it's a bit slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 what should be of paramount importance re this Euro (duh) oper. evolution is the morphologY with handling the mid nation flow. we discussed this earlier in the thread and it's a nice homage to those points that this comes in this way and beautifully demos the concern there. that ... and the transitive relationship it has with Atlantic wayward blocking is going to be exceptionally important to marine interests and coastal communities along the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 Its a long way to TIP awary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: Can't see Euro but all and all was it quicker in getting the storm up to the Bahamas than previous run? I guess if the trend of a faster storm getting north it might have a better chance of having the trough bringing it more N verses OTS. Yes thats right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Its a long way to TIP awary? Fantastic...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: Cant come soon enough haha. There was a late season cane October 4th 1804 that produced 48" of snow in Vermont. The great snow cane. Look up the wiki article it's fascinating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 18z gfs is going to be good I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 29, 2016 Share Posted September 29, 2016 7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 18z gfs is going to be good I think I think I've seen this posted a few times over the years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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