12z GFS Fantasy Range, hy brid storm brings feet of rain to SNE

[Ginx snewx]

Remember all the storms we have seen all the years modeled at day 10 then lost then come back, yea still watching. Don't know about a colossal waste of time lol but its early to write anything off.

[Baroclinic Zone]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Remember all the storms we have seen all the years modeled at day 10 then lost then come back, yea still watching. Don't know about a colossal waste of time lol but its early to write anything off.

Who cares if it hits us or not.  It's a TC to track in the Atlantic Basin.  Better than the weather doldrums we've been having since May.

[Damage In Tolland]

Sept and Oct where there was a TS within 50 miles of Matt. Anyone see a common theme?

 

 

[OceanStWx]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sept and Oct where there was a TS within 50 miles of Matt. Anyone see a common theme? 

Everyone from Nicaragua to Labrador should keep an eye on it?

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Everyone from Nicaragua to Labrador should keep an eye on it?

Some go left some go right?

[Damage In Tolland]

Not one comes anywhere near SNE.. All OTS. Next

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z guidance. Congrats Guantanamo Bay.

[dryslot]

Pretty much the GOM ship has sailed, That much we know

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sept and Oct where there was a TS within 50 miles of Matt. Anyone see a common theme?

 

 

 

yup - miss any affect on SNE at least excuse imaginable - 

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

12z guidance. Congrats Guantanamo Bay.

 

while not hugely elevated ... that eastern 1/8th of that Cuban land mass sports elevations upward of 4-6 K feet.  

not sure if that is enough to really blunt Matthew's legacy here ... but i do find it funny that fate would have this thing move bodily across just perfectly wrongly like that - ahaha

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

 

yup - miss any affect on SNE at least excuse imaginable - 

Can tell when the westerlies kick into gear, although didn't Sandy um, cross Cuba. Not so sure about that map.

[Typhoon Tip]

37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Sept and Oct where there was a TS within 50 miles of Matt. Anyone see a common theme?

 

 

 

ha!  that's even better -

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

 

while not hugely elevated ... that eastern 1/8th of that Cuban land mass sports elevations upward of 4-6 K feet.  

not sure if that is enough to really blunt Matthew's legacy here ... but i do find it funny that fate would have this thing move bodily across just perfectly wrongly like that - ahaha

Yup.  Could be quite wet in Cuba if it does track over that area.

[Ginx snewx]

October climo

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Some go left some go right?

few go North most go NE

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

few go North most go NE

Perfect example of how rare it is to get a tropical system to LF in New England

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

few go North most go NE

That should tell us how rare it is to get one to New England.  Lots of red lines, few in NE.

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Perfect example of how rare it is to get a tropical system to LF in New England

lol you beat me to it by a few seconds.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol you beat me to it by a few seconds.

Bout says it all don't ya think..............

[Baroclinic Zone]

Really need a well timed deep trough to get a system up here.

[OceanStWx]

I'm not sure why it's surprising that it is tough to get a landfalling system in New England. Geography is against you, because based on prevailing flow a system is likely to make landfall in the Carolinas first and weaken before arriving in New England. Latitude means the westerlies are a bigger threat. Colder water kills the heat engine of a tropical system. 

I'm paraphrasing but that 1938 reanalysis found something like 1% of days every year feature a set up conducive to a 1938 track. And that's not even factoring whether a tropical system even exists in the right area to latch onto that track.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

I'm not sure why it's surprising that it is tough to get a landfalling system in New England. Geography is against you, because based on prevailing flow a system is likely to make landfall in the Carolinas first and weaken before arriving in New England. Latitude means the westerlies are a bigger threat. Colder water kills the heat engine of a tropical system. 

I'm paraphrasing but that 1938 reanalysis found something like 1% of days every year feature a set up conducive to a 1938 track. And that's not even factoring whether a tropical system even exists in the right area to latch onto that track.

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm not sure why it's surprising that it is tough to get a landfalling system in New England. Geography is against you, because based on prevailing flow a system is likely to make landfall in the Carolinas first and weaken before arriving in New England. Latitude means the westerlies are a bigger threat. Colder water kills the heat engine of a tropical system. 

I'm paraphrasing but that 1938 reanalysis found something like 1% of days every year feature a set up conducive to a 1938 track. And that's not even factoring whether a tropical system even exists in the right area to latch onto that track.

 

because (regardless of real statistics...) someodd 85% of forum users are not educated and lack this sort of analytic filter with this stuff that you're describing. 

which says nothing about their native intelligence, character, and/or their eventual station in the field of interest ... just that at any given time, your dealing with the common populate.  

more over, we live in a kind of 'dangerous' era (for lack of better word);  information from multiple non-refereed sources (include our's truly, unfortunately) is replete with 'reasonable' sounding and well-written utter bullschit - to put it nicely.  but dark humor aside, much of the hypothetical 85 percentile is also highly gifted with a passion for weather events - particularly of an extreme nature ... then enters all that emotional vesting crap Will was talking about, and the combination of lacking that analytic filter et al with that passion, it follows from logic that content/posting might contain expectation idiosyncrasies.

[NJwx85]

Most hurricane's that have impacted SNE recently all passed North of the Islands. The list includes Bob, Gloria, Floyd, Irene and the LI Express. In fact, if you look at all of those tracks, they are all very similar. Sandy is really the only exception I can think of.

[Ginx snewx]

22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Most hurricane's that have impacted SNE recently all passed North of the Islands. The list includes Bob, Gloria, Floyd, Irene and the LI Express. In fact, if you look at all of those tracks, they are all very similar. Sandy is really the only exception I can think of.

Thats climo and Sandy was surge damage primarily except on the immediate coast where winds gusted to near 100 in SNE. I disagree with Tip on the 85% figure, in here maybe 10% don't know our cane Climo.

[powderfreak]

53 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I'm not sure why it's surprising that it is tough to get a landfalling system in New England. Geography is against you, because based on prevailing flow a system is likely to make landfall in the Carolinas first and weaken before arriving in New England. Latitude means the westerlies are a bigger threat. Colder water kills the heat engine of a tropical system. 

I'm paraphrasing but that 1938 reanalysis found something like 1% of days every year feature a set up conducive to a 1938 track. And that's not even factoring whether a tropical system even exists in the right area to latch onto that track.

I don't think it's surprising to anyone haha.  I would think most know what they are dealing with.

[dryslot]

Pretty big differences from the 06z GFS and the 12z GFS at H5, Could LF the outer banks this run

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, dryslot said:

Pretty big differences from the 06z GFS and the 12z GFS at H5, Could LF the outer banks this run

Yup, sideswipes OBX today.

[Bostonseminole]

LOL gfs.. that is why nothing is locked so far out.

[dryslot]

Yup, sideswipes OBX today.

Looks like it runs the coastline


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