klw Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: it's like Bart Simpson when he recorded Millhouse being crushed by Lisa, his sister. He kept rewinding to the precise moment Lisa says no, and Milhouse reacts, over and over again, while saying, "Watch .. .the exact moment when the heart breaks" - and laughing in Schadenfreude (means taking joy in other people's misery). Fiona!!! Still an interesting storm to watch and things are still far from set in stone. Will it be a double hard right storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 On a personal and unbiased note since I'm not buddies with anyone here, I'd like to see the mods rein in some of these long distance threads. I know people will have hurt feelings when the thread they started at 240+ hours gets deleted but they'll get the hint. I hate to single people out but James is one of the worst offenders for this. If this sort of thing goes unchecked this winter, it's going to get people agitated due to emotional investment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 10 minutes ago, Hazey said: On a personal and unbiased note since I'm not buddies with anyone here, I'd like to see the mods rein in some of these long distance threads. I know people will have hurt feelings when the thread they started at 240+ hours gets deleted but they'll get the hint. I hate to single people out but James is one of the worst offenders for this. If this sort of thing goes unchecked this winter, it's going to get people agitated due to emotional investment. yeeeah... i see your point. but, that also teeters close to the realm of censorship and the stifling of 'wonder' i'd say tighter moderating is okay, as long as it doesn't actually silence voices - which i don't agree with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 14 minutes ago, Hazey said: On a personal and unbiased note since I'm not buddies with anyone here, I'd like to see the mods rein in some of these long distance threads. I know people will have hurt feelings when the thread they started at 240+ hours gets deleted but they'll get the hint. I hate to single people out but James is one of the worst offenders for this. If this sort of thing goes unchecked this winter, it's going to get people agitated due to emotional investment. We're buddies #hugs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Well I see the censorship point but at the same time starting a thread with about a storm based on one 384hr solution, doesn't do anything for the forum. Maybe there is an easier way than just deleting but this going to be one heck of a winter if James (or anyone else) starts a thread every time they see a model run that shows a blizzard. Perhaps just leave the status quo I guess. Sorry don't mean to stir a pot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 We're buddies #hugsAww thanks. We are only on international border and a 10hr drive away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Just now, Hazey said: Well I see the censorship point but at the same time starting a thread with about a storm based on one 384hr solution, doesn't do anything for the forum. Maybe there is an easier way than just deleting but this going to be one heck of a winter if James (or anyone else) starts a thread every time they see a model run that shows a blizzard. Perhaps just leave the status quo I guess. Sorry don't mean to stir a pot. We will definitely be more strict with our moderating as we get into the "busy" season. Think of this thread as a warm-up. Like years past we will probably have a non-specific model discussion thread where we can discuss anything. Get systems to within 4-5 days and we can spin off specific threads. Hindsight, his one could have been lumped in the to TC thread we already have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 We will definitely be more strict with our moderating as we get into the "busy" season. Think of this thread as a warm-up. Like years past we will probably have a non-specific model discussion thread where we can discuss anything. Get systems to within 4-5 days and we can spin off specific threads. Hindsight, his one could have been lumped in the to TC thread we already have.I think that's great. We have our own local weather forum where it's done that way and it works awesome. I don't mean to poo poo the kid. He is obviously very passionate about the weather but he has to practice some self control and every once and a while it's up to us community members to help him with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 We definitely will be deleting specific threat threads in the winter if they are posted this far out. A day 10-11 model solution is basically meaningless for a specific threat. We certainly talk about teleconnectors at this time frame in the winter and how perhaps they may support a higher probability of a winter storm within a narrower range of days than pure randomness, but that wasn't the spirit of this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We definitely will be deleting specific threat threads in the winter if they are posted this far out. A day 10-11 model solution is basically meaningless for a specific threat. We certainly talk about teleconnectors at this time frame in the winter and how perhaps they may support a higher probability of a winter storm within a narrower range of days than pure randomness, but that wasn't the spirit of this thread. I thought people didn't like probabilities either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 12z gfs much much closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Damn good looking Cane just off the Carolinas by next Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Congrats Yarmouth, NS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Makes landfall in maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Man this thing is still a week away or more until it gets up this way...that's a long time. Anything is still possible with this that's for sure. Certainly not calling for any type of hit in SNE, but the lead time is still so significant that absolutely nothing can be counted on/counted out at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We definitely will be deleting specific threat threads in the winter if they are posted this far out. A day 10-11 model solution is basically meaningless for a specific threat. We certainly talk about teleconnectors at this time frame in the winter and how perhaps they may support a higher probability of a winter storm within a narrower range of days than pure randomness, but that wasn't the spirit of this thread. better idea - just lock them... don't delete. that sort of heavy handed approach is fascist to put it nicely. but if you 'lock' the thread, people will get the message without being suppressed in their opinions - in theory ... i guess in dealing with the general public you get all types and well, heh... it probably wouldn't matter. whatever. anyway, i don't think this thread went up when this Matthew system was 384 hours out though - i think that's an exaggeration that the 'cause' of impugning is getting swept away in. having said that... yeah, even a D9 threat is silly ...ah ... er. sometimes, however, a long lead threat carries more weight - not so much in the deterministic sense, but in the 'something to look for' I know back in the days of Eastern, and up until about 4 years ago ... i used to start threads about two week potentials; i did well, but i employed more than model awe in my analytics, too. probably? it just comes down to case-by-case, thread-by-thread basis for usefulness. maybe that, there, is the best approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: 12z gfs much much closer don't fall for it, man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Just now, WinterWolf said: Man this thing is still a week away or more until it gets up this way...that's a long time. Anything is still possible with this that's for sure. Certainly not calling for any type of hit in SNE, but the lead time is still so significant that absolutely nothing can be counted on/counted out at all. And the thread was started 5 days ago. Thread should have been started for a storm hitting us now, not an additional week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 nice phase job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: nice phase job that's what i said to my wife on our wedding night - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: And the thread was started 5 days ago. Thread should have been started for a storm hitting us now, not an additional week away. At least it is still a threat at this point, so not so terrible yet in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 this may in fact be the most tormented solution we've seen on this thing, to date... why? cuz ... in this paradigm, it gets close enough to have packed isobars but no wind, because the left quadrant gets hosed by polarward accelerating COC teases ... it's amazing? the atmoshere/models are literally engineering the collective misery on purpose .. muah hahahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Bye bye Bar Harba. Real nice phase. And 930 while it's off the Cape? Good things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Cmc closer but still misses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Just now, NorthShoreWx said: At least it is still a threat at this point, so not so terrible yet in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Imagine, Hermine was suppose to be bad, but ended up being a dud. Watch Matthew be the big deal.kinda reminds me of Irene being not horribly bad,everyone getting mad at media etc, then Sandy comes and no one takes it totally serious.. Of course this isn't like either of those storms,but who really knows, maybe it will surprise and hit us,and no one will take it seriously. After Hermine screw up,and it coming way later, not many will be so quick to believe Matthew coming,if it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 That didn't come out exactly the way I thought about it,but it's boy who cry wolf setup that would be bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 12z gefs out on instantweather has some big hits some ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Just looked at the 12z GFS, Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted September 30, 2016 Author Share Posted September 30, 2016 Sorry I posted the thread too early, but I thought it was interesting model solution even this far out. We are now between 7-9 days out so it is getting closer. By the way the GFS has a 937mb low just northeast of Cape Cod, MA by 204 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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