CT Valley Snowman Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 18z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 Link to recon http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 4 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Link to recon http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/ Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 14 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: 18z GEFS. Pretty much all shiwing the keft hook into NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted September 30, 2016 Share Posted September 30, 2016 150 mph winds now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_18z/ensloopmref.html Really impressive solutions on ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 29 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: 18z GEFS. That's a big eye opener there. Weenies are up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Still watching with one eye open...worth tracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 This Matthew is now a category five hurricane according to the latest obs from the Hurricane Hunters. 142-knot surface winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: This Matthew is now a category five hurricane according to the latest obs from the Hurricane Hunters. 142-knot surface winds 165mph surface wind. Keeping eye out for any special message from NHC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 Yes sir, I think he can peak at around 175mph - 180mph, but pressure might be around 930mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 18z GFS: Matthew would dump 12" of rain in EMA. yikes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 couldn't imagine what a pressure sub 900mb kind of winds it would produce given the pressure/wind relationship isn't normal right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just now, Bostonseminole said: 18z GFS: Matthew would dump 12" of rain in EMA. yikes.. Wow, that is a flood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 GFS produces 100 knot winds over Cape Cod, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 Next update by the NHC will have Matthew a category five hurricane. I might be six hours too late with my latest prediction of 5am, since hurricane hunters already found 143 knot surface winds. 165mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 6 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: couldn't imagine what a pressure sub 900mb kind of winds it would produce given the pressure/wind relationship isn't normal right now. I've seen previous TCs with much lower pressure, but the winds speeds were not as great as Matthew is right now, so each storm has its own characteristics that don't necessarily match to Saffir-Simpson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 I know that is why I said imagine if the pressure was lower than 900mb, it would equate to 200mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 PAGE 17 should be saved and framed for posterity. All comments, speculations and hype will change in a few hours. Undeniable is that with each successive run a tick W every so slightly. 18Z has 100mph+ wind-field at my LAT the size of MA, CT and RI. BEAST making Hermine look like a Summer breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 Hermine was strong in her own right, she can't be compared to Matthew, different set of conditions and what not, but one thing remains the same, they both will intensify when conditions become better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 eye temp is around +1.3C and the surrounding convection is as cold as -76C on average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 Matthew is likely a category five hurricane with winds of up to 165mph and a central pressure of 940mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 I would guess the 11pm advisory would be 160mph winds with a pressure of 940mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Wondering if that feeder band on the eastern quadrant of the other circulation might be trying to formulate a satellite vortex. Gilbert did that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 Steve, isn't he beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 940 is approximately 20 mbar to high of a pressure for category five - where are we getting 160 mph sustained winds from ? They could be gusting that high at the surface but that's a doubtful velocity at those pressures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 Why Tip? The environmental pressures are higher than average in the region anyways which is why the pressure of Matthew is higher than what you would think for a category five hurricane. The SMFR data from the HHs suggests that winds at the surface are around 142-143 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted October 1, 2016 Author Share Posted October 1, 2016 Satellite intensity estimates are getting closer to 140 knots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.