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Winter Med Range Discussion days 3-10 pbp II


buckeyefan1

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2/10/2015 00z EPS members showing 2" or greater snowfall at an assumed 10:1 ratio (could be sleet/ice for some) within the 240 hour window viewable.  These are the numbers out of 51 possible.  These are just the overall idea, and not storm specific.  Storm specific ones may come if it looks obvious there is going to be a substantial widespread Winter storm well inside 240 hours.

 

AL:

KBHM - 6

KHSV - 14

KASN - 5

KTCL - 3

KAUB - 3

 

GA:

KAHN - 11

KATL - 8

KGVL - 16

KSAV - 0

KMCN - 4

 

TN:

KCHA - 18

KMEM - 15

KBNA - 25

KTYS - 25

KUCY - 26

 

MS:

KTUP - 10

KJAN - 2

KGWO - 5

KBIX - 0

KSTF - 4

 

NC:

KAVL - 24

KCLT - 17

KGSO - 23

KRDU - 18

KILM - 8

 

SC:

KCEU - 17

KCAE - 6

KGSP - 17

KMYR - 6

KCHS - 3

KUZA - 15

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I disagree...2m temps were a bigger issue. Anything north of 40 would be snow per the Euro. CLT would probably be a lot of sleet. It's a race for sure...but this far out that look is what we want.

This is a different look for sure. Normally we see a few good runs for snow, then we get rain. To have a rainstorm and have it trend colder and torwards a wintry precip event, I don't think has happened this winter!? The sad part is, if it's a race between cold and moisture, cold loses 9 out of 10 times.
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Just as excited as yesterday about our week of winter here on triad of NC 2/13 - 2/20. The west southwest flow is almost progged perfect on the euro and latest gfs. Now have over half the euro ensembles showing significant snow for gso. 2+ inches is significant imo. From the double blast of cold over the weekend to an accumulating snow next Tues night into Wednesday, with below normal air behind mid week storm should be fun.

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Folks,

The 6Z GFS has a major SN for much of NC/TN on 2/17 due to a much colder high to the north feeding in cold air. Is this a blip, close to accurate, or the start of a southward trend? If the last option, those south of NC/TN could also get in on some action on future runs.

I said a couple days ago i liked it. The other day it had a hp to our north and in the plains. An no pesky lake lows to srew us. Something to keep an eye on for sure.

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This is a different look for sure. Normally we see a few good runs for snow, then we get rain. To have a rainstorm and have it trend colder and torwards a wintry precip event, I don't think has happened this winter!? The sad part is, if it's a race between cold and moisture, cold loses 9 out of 10 times.

So you say we have a 10% chance? ...just kidding. Seriously this may be our best chance of the year. As stated before RAH has interest in the potential event and I have learned to trust them over most others.

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This is a different look for sure. Normally we see a few good runs for snow, then we get rain. To have a rainstorm and have it trend colder and torwards a wintry precip event, I don't think has happened this winter!? The sad part is, if it's a race between cold and moisture, cold loses 9 out of 10 times.

If this system takes that track as modeled, 850's stay below freezing before, during, and after the storm. Actually they drop to -15C immediately after. So no, this is not moisture chasing cold.

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Overnight discussion from NWS Raleigh:

 

INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. THIS NEXT
SYSTEM MAY BECOME MORE INTERESTING AS TIME GOES ALONG. CURRENT
OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST A CHANCE OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE MAIN POLAR FRONT OVER THE SE STATES.
TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE WAVE... ALONG WITH THE AMOUNT/DEPTH OF
COLD AIR FEED INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
ANY WINTERY PRECIPITATION MID NEXT WEEK.

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Hopefully this will increase at 12z so confidence will grow. We have seen better agreement than this at even less lead time this year. Huge caution when using the euro this year.attachicon.gifK1A5_2015021000_eps_snow_240.png

Yeah it just looks good for your backyard now, central NC means look dreadful. Gotta love it. location location location. Edit: BTW I'm agreeing with you.

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The dewpoints are going to be really low with this arctic outbreak. Combine that with this system moving in less than 24 hours after the arctic air gets here and you have a potential recipe for freezing rain from just a transient insitu CAD event. 

 

If we could get the high pressure to hang around a little longer this could get really interesting on Tuesday morning.

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The dewpoints are going to be really low with this arctic outbreak. Combine that with this system moving in less than 24 hours after the arctic air gets here and you have a potential recipe for freezing rain from just a transient insitu CAD event. 

 

If we could get the high pressure to hang around a little longer this could get really interesting on Tuesday morning.

 

yeah, nice recipe for a front end thump of snow that transitions through the types. 

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Well it starts out good but then goes downhill fast at hour 177.

 

Well we have a HP sliding out and another one coming down over the Dakota's, and the SLP on this run just fits right in between them, LOL.  I guess we will have a chance as long as the +PNA/-EPO remains, but it's so timing dependent so it will change every run for the next week.

post-2311-0-69781700-1423586619_thumb.pn

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Well we have a HP sliding out and another one coming down over the Dakota's, and the SLP on this run just fits right in between them, LOL.  I guess we will have a chance as long as the +PNA/-EPO remains, but it's so timing dependent so it will change every run for the next week.

It's the devil in the details. Verbatim, for RDU, it would start as snow, go to ice, then maybe rain, then back to snow. (but for all of us) All that counts right now (at this range) is that we have the players on the field. We definitely have real potential here.   

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All that counts right now (at this range) is that we have the players on the field. We definitely have real potential here.   

 

*yaaawwwwwwwwwwwwwwnnnnnnnnnnnnnn*

 

:facepalm:

 

Since we like to use the word "VERBATIM" it looks fairly nice for the western NC/SWVA area (as usual) on the 12z.

 

Every storm this year has had to battle with a big, fat RED L in southern Canada, tracking in perfect unison with the southern low.

 

Replace that with a big, BLUE H and we'd have 20" and counting...same old song and dance we've been getting sucked into all winter!

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