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About Jon

  • Birthday 04/18/1867

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  1. Blocking is already improved ten-fold on the 00z EPS for 00z 3/12
  2. Well, the 00z Euro has a 975mb bomb off of Jersey, blanketing DCA to Maine in ~20-30" snow....on Kuchera ratios it's 20-50" widespread, would be a HECS.....hahaha. If that happens, this winter would go down as the greatest winter for the NE of all time (no brutal cold, overwhelming warm temps DJF, and historic east coast snow mid-March)
  3. Jesus... Check out the Kuchera product on Wxbell...widespread 30-50" from DCA to Maine, ha
  4. Here's one for Pack, the GFS had a warm bias for January.
  5. 12z GFS was was almost virtually identical to the 12z run from thursday, except slightly less digging/weaker wouldn't have taken much for that run to be a huge hit for the SE. We still need the west coast ridge to trend slightly more west and/or get the energy to dig a little sooner/more south at this frame...but man that run was close considering the 00z runt his morning, the GFS has no clue. 12z Thursday run
  6. Nope. I'm somewhat excited about potential mid month, as long as the west coast ridging holds on the ensembles. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  7. I'm back! Thanks for noticing! But yeah, my news isn't good news.
  8. I had some minor issues with my account (got 24hr banned on accident lol, no worries, it's figured out now) but then 10th seems like a dud at this point. The models have gone away from the tall west coast ridging and instead moving towards a more eastern ridge...this doesn't allow the tail end of the energy to develop a shortwave and dig, but instead shears out and suppresses any moisture that forms. The ridge is progressing to a flatter, more eastern orientation...nothing but cold from that. The models won't find this storm again if the ridge isn't in the proper orientation - simple as that.
  9. 12z GEFS mslp mean...not bad at all for an agreement on a system
  10. BTW - The 00z Euro had the 2/10 storm, it was just out to sea. Check 12z 2/10 frame MSLP for those with access. The Euro also has the same tail end of energy swinging down as the GFS does, so it's not like the Euro isn't showing a storm at's there, just hasn't popped anything significant yet.
  11. The potential was there as packbacker and I spoke on this morning...with the energy and varying ridging and pacific looks, even within day 7, you'll get a run in your favor at some point. What the 12z GFS ensembles say is important, inside day 7-8 I'm assuming ensemble support, we'll see.
  12. It's a bit comical that run was available two days ago but respected mets and others are just now posting that forecast recently...that's as bad as cold hypers, but the warm hypers will never be called out.
  13. I agree Pack, this is what to watch. If we can just get that energy on the end to amplify just a tad sooner than the 00z GFS we would be in business. Need the ridge to amplify as well. Just goes neutral way too late otherwise this would have been a big hit.