BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Looking at your analogs for no snow through January: you getting a multi-inch snow is suggested as a decent possibility at some point 2/1+ due to it being a Nino. Nino ftw? Larry, I sure hope so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Thanks for all the discussion. Hopefully the storm will tick south a bit and the cold doesn't trend warmer. But considering the lack of blocking and the NW trend, it's going to be an uphill battle I think. I'd feel so much better if we had a high in the NE for a true CAD. Considering we're 7 days out though, probably doesn't matter anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Looking at the 12 GFS Ensemble members on ewall from the 12z run... Right or wrong, the ensemble members aren't quite as cold with the Sunday arctic blast (maybe that has to do with the lower resolution of the members, don't know) For the storm, here's what I see in terms of a breakdown (mainly with a focus on NC) Wintry Mix - 3 (members) Wintry Mix to Rain - 3 Mainly Rain - 4 It's a huge long shot at this point, with how things look, not 0 percent but darn close to it. Just looking at the QPF output you can see the favored track on the GEFS. I don't think this will be as far north as say the last overrunning event that plastered Chicago to Boston but who knows. Personally I would like to see the areas just south of 40N to get theres so the lower Oh-V, PHL, MA can quit there griping and moaning. Then it can be just us savoring futility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The GEFS is just stuck on repeat, looks more active after day 10 too. Whoever gets snow could get several events as the pattern looks to be stuck like this for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Euro much colder than the 00z run @156. This could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 At the same time the Euro doesn't look as robust with the PV in Canada on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 @168 big hit of snow for Eastern TN...light qpf which would be all snow in WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 BOOM! Big hit on the Euro for all of NC and GSP area. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Burger/folks, The irony of this 12Z Euro: because the Arctic high doesn't come down as deeply, it is actually colder on 2/17 in most areas when the storm comes in lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 @174 4 inches for CLT to HKY....HKY to mountains 4-6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Euro is showing a much stronger HP over the NE than the last run around day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Not sure why the Euro isn't a bigger hit for most of NC. Big winners are mountains with 8 inches plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Euro is showing a much stronder HP over the NE than the last run around day 7. That's because it doesn't send it down as far. So, it is stronger up in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Burger/folks, The irony of this 12Z Euro: because the Arctic high doesn't come down as deeply, it is actually colder on 2/17 in most areas when the storm comes in lol! Now is this the drunk uncle Doc or is it going to lead the way? I personally feel like as we get closer it will be colder...hopefully our energy doesn't get totally squashed if that happens. I really think this is our best chance of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Now is this the drunk uncle Doc or is it going to lead the way? I personally feel like as we get closer it will be colder...hopefully our energy doesn't get totally squashed if that happens. I really think this is our best chance of the year. Nobody should be worried about missing this south or the energy getting crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 2m2 minutes ago 12z Euro also showing wintry weather in southeast by Tuesday. Check out how strong wedge is even at 850mb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Perfect setup, with the sw flow coming right on heels of artic air that gets dropped in on qus over the weekend. Shutout will end in triad next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 1m1 minute ago At 12z Tuesday, the model has the surface freezing line all the way down to north-central GA and south-central SC. With precip moving in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Fun starts at 168... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Ugh. I'd rather have 60º and sunny. In fact, 90º and sunny. Agreed. I would love snow or sleet but NOT ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 13s14 seconds ago Taken literally the 12z Euro is a significant to major winter storm for N GA/upstate SC, most of NC, except SE NC. 7 days out so use caution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 30s30 seconds ago But as of this cycle, (12z), the 3 major global models show winter weather next tuesday. However, setup is a bit fragile, so could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Perfect setup, with the sw flow coming right on heels of artic air that gets dropped in on qus over the weekend. Shutout will end in triad next week. No way in heck I'm biting on this one...classic Doc being Doc. He giveth and taketh away come 00z. Can't say I'm surprised given the spread on the 00z EPS mean though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Best thing to do at this point is to nibble and not bite... No way in heck I'm biting on this one...classic Doc being Doc. He giveth and taketh away come 00z. Can't say I'm surprised given the spread on the 00z EPS mean though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Euro has the best look over the northeast at hr144 with holding on to the cold vortex / confluence...nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Best thing to do at this point is to nibble and not bite...That's what she said!(sorry)The wedge is strong on Euro, I like that we have the big two onboard for this! Even 7 days out! I will be happy if it's there Saturday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Euro has the best look over the northeast at hr144 with holding on to the cold vortex / confluence...nice run.We havent seen that look at a 144 hour range all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Looks like the Euro is not too far off with another one at hr240. Damming wedge with a weak wave approaching from the west type setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Looks like the Euro is not too far off with another one at hr240. Damming wedge with a weak wave approaching from the west type setup. Now that looks more believable...looking at the vort map between 00z and 12z runs with the Tuesday storm, I just don't trust this run. I'll wait for the means and the 00z Euro but this is one run away from not being a storm for the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Now is this the drunk uncle Doc or is it going to lead the way? I personally feel like as we get closer it will be colder...hopefully our energy doesn't get totally squashed if that happens. I really think this is our best chance of the year. Burger, it's already really close for areas in SC to not see a crapton of ZR. KCAE is borderline during heaviest precip.. talking two counties away or so of 32F or colder.. the 850s surge upward of +5 around here during that time... GSP even looks to get a big thump of snow and possibly change to ZR/Sleet. Still good snows up that way though. In other words, the ZR threat is real down this way in mby if temps get colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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