BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Looks like half a foot of snow at CLT on that run, followed by some cold air to keep it around. Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Looks like half a foot of snow at CLT on that run, followed by some cold air to keep it around. Sweet. The Euro map has almost the whole state of NC with at least 6 inches. Drops off a bit east of Wake County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 We havent seen that look at a 144 hour range all winter. UKMet also looks pretty good over the northeast at 144...looks closer to the Euro than the GFS/CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I believe the 12z Euro has a false ridge at 156hrs that simply won't be there. That is what makes this storm even happen for the SE. IMO this will likely trend north and leave the SE in the dust, if it happens. The ridge is going to be too far off the WC to make it happen for us. I'd post maps but #1 they're all paid and #2 I'm too lazy, lol...just compare 156hrs on the 00z EPS mean, 00z Euro 12z Euro OP. It will be interesting, however, to see how many members keep a ridge for us to work with and how the 12z EPS looks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 FFC is going with the wintry mix to rain scenario atm. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA203 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2015 .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...MOST OF THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY A H5 TROUGH OVER THE EASTCOAST WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CWA. THIS WILL PUSHTEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM...AND MUCH BELOWNORMAL FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM. TEMPS WILL DROPWELL BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY NIGHT AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLESOVER THE EASTERN U.S. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST THERE WILL BESOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT THEN ANARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA SATURDAY BRINGING THE COLDESTTEMPS WE HAVE SEEN SINCE JAN 8 OF THIS YEAR. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAYWILL STRUGGLE TO REACH FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR AFTERNOONHIGHS. THE H5 FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN MONDAY ALLOWING PACIFIC ANDGULF MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THAT WILLMOVE INTO THE CWA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTOTUESDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTH GATHERE WILL LIKELY BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SLEET/SNOW ACROSS NORTH GA...ESPECIALLY AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP...MONDAY NIGHT BUTEVERYTHING SHOULD BECOME ALL LIQUID BY MID DAY TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Crazy what a false snow pack will do! This run is cold through 240! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Crazy what a false snow pack will do! This run is cold through 240! The GFS is even colder! It drops HKY to -15! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I believe the 12z Euro has a false ridge at 156hrs that simply won't be there. That is what makes this storm even happen for the SE. IMO this will likely trend north and leave the SE in the dust, if it happens. The ridge is going to be too far off the WC to make it happen for us. I'd post maps but #1 they're all paid and #2 I'm too lazy, lol...just compare 156hrs on the 00z EPS mean, 00z Euro 12z Euro OP. It will be interesting, however, to see how many members keep a ridge for us to work with and how the 12z EPS looks... Jon - I would say the confluence pattern over the mid-atlantic and northeast is equally important. If that relaxes and heights are allowed to rise over the southeast, then it's all she wrote, it goes north...we've seen it all winter to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Jon - I would say the confluence pattern over the mid-atlantic and northeast is equally important. If that relaxes and heights are allowed to rise over the southeast, then it's all she wrote, it goes north...we've seen it all winter to date.Yeah I agree, it really just seems like something that won't work out in our favor, of all things. I hope it does though, just don't want anyone getting their hopes up on this look. People already asking brick to post snow maps, I can just see facebook blowing up in an hour over *possibly* nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The GFS is even colder! It drops HKY to -15! Yep, snowpack feedback. Got a -20 bullyeye over Wilkesboro. That'll crush Jan '85 lows: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GFS goes to rain for CLT while the euro stays below freeing the entire storm. Both have completely different scenarios. Gut feeling, the low cuts to Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Apps. Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This can't happen because it would actually snow in Nashville, TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This can't happen because it would actually snow in Nashville, TN. lol, truth. If the monster storm off the northeast coast is there, it will try and hold the high in place longer and give the confluence needed to keep this from gaining too much latitude. It doesn't mean we can't rain though, just that we would be much closer to the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 "7 days out so use caution". Did anyone read that? Never saw it. Euro has temps holding in the low 20's during the precip, so hold on to this run for dear life, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Significant changes in one run of the EURO. Atlanta went from -20C on the 00Z to 0C on the 12Z at 850mb for Sunday morning LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Not too impressed with the EPS. There's a few good hits in there for NC but overall further NW track than OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLKeene123 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 From NWS@GSP Forcast Discussion THE 10/12 UTC GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PROGGINGAN INCREASE IN MOIST LLVL UPGLIDE FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THERESULTANT PRIMARY LOW TRACK POTENTIALLY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THECWFA. GIVEN THE RESIDUAL CRITICALLY COLD AIR AND SOME DEGREE OF SLOWTO ERODE CAD REGIME...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OF WINTRYMIX INTO TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Not too impressed with the EPS. There's a few good hits in there for NC but overall further NW track than OP.cuts west, no surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Not too impressed with the EPS. There's a few good hits in there for NC but overall further NW track than OP. At 500mb, I thought the mean looked very similar to the Op run during hr144-168. Rough estimate, around 1/2 of the members have some snow (or wintry precip) in areas east of the mtns in NC on the clown map (at least 2 inches). Indeed the mean was warmer at 850mb than the op run, but it was colder than the previous Ens mean (in NC damming areas) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 From NWS@GSP Forcast Discussion THE 10/12 UTC GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PROGGING AN INCREASE IN MOIST LLVL UPGLIDE FLOW MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE RESULTANT PRIMARY LOW TRACK POTENTIALLY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE CWFA. GIVEN THE RESIDUAL CRITICALLY COLD AIR AND SOME DEGREE OF SLOW TO ERODE CAD REGIME...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX INTO TUESDAY. RAH not ready to jump on this potential at this point: EARLY NEXT WEEK: MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL MODERATION IN THE AIRMASS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BUT STILL REMAINING COLDER THAN NORMAL. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS THE LATEST GFS AND ECWMF OPERATIONAL RUNS STILL SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...MOVING ENE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THIS TIME. THE MAIN CONSIDERATIONS FOR P-TYPE WILL BE THE LOW TRACK AND POTENTIAL FOR WAA GIVEN ITS TRACK...AND THE VERY COLD ANTECEDENT AIRMASS OVER OUR AREA. IT`S WORTH POINTING OUT THAT MOST OF THE AVAILABLE 12Z GEFS MEMBERS SHOW A LOW TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. SUFFICE IT TO SAY...LOTS OF DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN...MODEL SOLUTIONS INEVITABLY WILL CHANGE... AND EVEN BEFORE THEN...WE`VE GOT PLENTY OF POTENTIALLY HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER TO DEAL WITH GIVEN THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST OF COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 At 500mb, I thought the mean looked very similar to the Op run during hr144-168. Rough estimate, around 1/2 of the members have some snow (or wintry precip) in areas east of the mtns in NC on the clown map (at least 2 inches). Indeed the mean was warmer at 850mb than the op run, but it was colder than the previous Ens mean (in NC damming areas) I was surprised to see the main cluster, thus the mean, was in Ohio. I was hoping for the apps at the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The 12z EPS mean snowfall is much better than past runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The 12z EPS mean snowfall is much better than past runs. It's probably counting ICE based on the tracks of the lows others are mentioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Too many cutters for my liking on the ensembles. That seems to be the main track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 With this setup I have a feeling it won't be cutting north and west. Cold has tended to stick around and be stronger for longer durations than models have shown. With this coming on the heels of a big arctic front and then one incoming it's a bit of a game changer. Bigger issue for me is if that wave keeps getting weaker the further we go along in time. I think this is our first real chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I was surprised to see the main cluster, thus the mean, was in Ohio. I was hoping for the apps at the least. Yeah, but the main focus here would likely be overrunning precip into the cold dome (wintry mix) as opposed to a track well south and all snow. 1st order of business is getting the cold dome to hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The 12z EPS mean snowfall is much better than past runs. Was just about to post that. I think its the most snow I've seen on the EPS means so far this year at least across North and South Carolina with the 4" contour from GSP through CLT to RDU. Maybe this winter will be like the Panthers season; suck all year then get hot enough to be memorable at the end. Looking at our storm next week though its not exactly what I would like to see. Alot of members with lows up north then jumping to off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Boston would probably score again with that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Was just about to post that. I think its the most snow I've seen on the EPS means so far this year at least across North and South Carolina with the 4" contour from GSP through CLT to RDU. Maybe this winter will be like the Panthers season; suck all year then get hot enough to be memorable at the end. Looking at our storm next week though its not exactly what I would like to see. Alot of members with lows up north then jumping to off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Boston would probably score again with that setup. If the cold and dp's are as modeled, I think we could still score with some miller B shenanigans , this is not your avg cold shot! Lots of things to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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