Rapid Intensification is an uncertainty as it is a possibility.
WTNT41 KNHC 052045
Tropical Storm Nate Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017
500 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017
The center of Nate is now over eastern Honduras, and the cloud
pattern has lost some organization since the last advisory due to
passage over land. In addition, recent ASCAT overpasses suggest
that there are no tropical-storm-force winds outside of the coastal
waters of Nicaragua and Honduras. However, surface observations
indicate that the central pressure remains near 1000 mb, and based
on this the initial intensity remains a possibly generous 35 kt.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Nate as it emerges from the northern coast of Honduras
around 0300 UTC.
Analyses from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin suggest that
Nate is currently experiencing about 20 kt of southwesterly vertical
wind shear, which is more than suggested by the SHIPS model. The
large-scale models are in good agreement that this shear should
diminish during the next 12-24 h, leaving Nate in an favorable
environment for strengthening. One change in the models from the
previous advisory is that the GFS now shows more development as Nate
crosses the Gulf of Mexico. The new intensity forecast shows little
change during the first 12 h due to the shear and land interaction,
then it calls for steady intensification though landfall on the
northern Gulf Coast. After landfall, Nate should weaken as it
traverses the eastern United States. It should be noted that while
the forecast shows a peak intensity of 70 kt at 48 h, Nate is
expected to continue to strengthen between 48 h and landfall and
thus is likely to be stronger than 70 kt. It should also be noted
that SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index values remain quite high, and
any period of rapid intensification would lead to Nate being
stronger than currently forecast.