lilj4425 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 13z. Head east my friends. Puts MBY in .50 keep trending. That dry slot over the northern part of Upstate SC....ugh. We're cursed in this area. Hopefully the moisture continues to trend northwest but I am not hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Don't you need a more organized and mature low pressure system for a comma head to form though? Thats the thing about... right now if the trends are showing to be true. Its organizing into a mature system which as the day progresses will eventually be over NC/SC which is why the models keep bumping up the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That second wave coming up the gulf stream on Thursday is going to be interesting to watch. NAM is oh so close to a nice hit for the SC coast. Looks like a very sharp cutoff with the precip line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I don't know what to make of it yet but if you look 2 water vapor you can see 2 pieces that look like they will phase or just miss each other. 1 in mexico the other in Western Texas. Something to keep your eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That dry slot over the northern part of Upstate SC....ugh. We're cursed in this area. Hopefully the moisture continues to trend northwest but I am not hopeful. Don't take the total precip/radar to heart on the RAP. Use it for trends on the smaller scale. If precip is ramping up; it's a good sign more moisture will get involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 no matter what Map or model you look at the northern foothills still seem to be getting the least out of this, but that has become the norm here for the last several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That dry slot over the northern part of Upstate SC....ugh. We're cursed in this area. Hopefully the moisture continues to trend northwest but I am not hopeful. Still shows you .2 or greater; which could translate to around 3 inches of snow. Not bad for where you where a day back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Question for a pro or wise weenie. Is this a sleet sounding or is the frozen layer not cold enough to freeze the relatively warm precip falling through? In the bigger picture, what are the guidelines on how warm upper levels can be/how cold lower levels have to be for precip to be sleet vs. CR? Date: 12 hour Eta valid 0Z WED 29 JAN 14Station: KVPSLatitude: 30.48Longitude: -86.53-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1019 21 0.5 -0.5 93 1.0 0.0 358 14 272.2 272.8 272.2 281.9 3.60 1 1000 169 -1.6 -2.3 95 0.6 -1.9 360 19 271.5 272.0 271.3 280.2 3.23 2 950 575 -3.5 -4.0 96 0.5 -3.6 12 25 273.7 274.2 272.2 281.9 3.00 3 900 1016 6.5 5.9 96 0.6 6.2 278 22 288.2 289.4 284.0 306.5 6.48 4 850 1485 5.3 4.7 96 0.5 5.0 269 30 291.7 292.8 285.2 309.9 6.33 5 800 1979 3.5 3.4 100 0.1 3.4 251 25 294.8 295.9 286.3 312.7 6.12 6 750 2503 2.6 2.6 100 0.0 2.7 232 36 299.4 300.6 288.0 317.8 6.18 7 700 3059 0.3 0.2 100 0.1 0.3 223 47 302.8 303.8 288.6 319.6 5.56 8 650 3651 -2.6 -2.6 100 0.0 -2.6 225 50 306.0 306.9 289.0 320.9 4.85 9 600 4282 -6.2 -6.3 100 0.1 -6.2 233 59 308.9 309.7 289.2 321.4 3.99 10 550 4958 -9.8 -10.9 92 1.0 -10.2 245 68 312.4 313.0 289.4 322.1 3.03 11 500 5687 -14.5 -16.5 85 2.0 -15.1 254 74 315.4 315.8 289.5 322.4 2.11 12 450 6478 -19.4 -21.7 82 2.3 -20.0 256 81 318.8 319.1 289.9 323.9 1.49 13 400 7342 -25.9 -28.5 79 2.6 -26.4 254 85 321.3 321.5 290.1 324.5 0.91 14 350 8294 -33.4 -36.3 75 3.0 -33.7 250 87 323.8 323.9 290.5 325.5 0.49 15 300 9359 -40.9 -44.4 69 3.4 -41.2 247 97 327.7 327.7 291.3 328.6 0.25 16 250 10578 -48.8 -52.9 62 4.1 -49.0 253 121 333.6 333.6 292.8 334.0 0.11 17 200 12019 -54.7 -67.3 20 12.6 -54.9 252 137 346.2 346.2 295.8 346.3 0.02 18 150 13838 -60.6 -78.8 7 18.2 -60.8 252 121 365.7 365.7 299.8 365.7 0.01 19 100 16287 -70.3 -85.6 9 15.3 -70.4 257 89 391.9 391.9 304.0 391.9 0.00TRP 0 WND 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 New 9z SREF plumes are out. Almost exactly like the 3z for GSO and CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 well, if the RAP is right...hold on..lol Hammers this area as well RAP is rippin! MCN in the 0.7-0.8in precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 WRAL just said on facebook that there are growing signs that warmer air aloft may result in several hours of sleet/freezing rain for Fayetteville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I don't know what to make of it yet but if you look 2 water vapor you can see 2 pieces that look like they will phase or just miss each other. 1 in mexico the other in Western Texas. Something to keep your eye on. I was just looking at this too. Honestly I don't see how the piece in Mexico is left behind given its proximity. The trough shape looks to aid capturing this piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 RAP is rippin! MCN in the 0.7-0.8in precip The question is...what will be rippin? IP, ZR, snow, or all three! The precip orientation to our southwest could certainly put us in the bullseye for some of the higher totals. Hopefully at least half of that qpf will be snow if we can get the temps up above to cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Question for a pro or wise weenie. Is this a sleet sounding or is the frozen layer not cold enough to freeze the relatively warm precip falling through? In the bigger picture, what are the guidelines on how warm upper levels can be/how cold lower levels have to be for precip to be sleet vs. CR? Date: 12 hour Eta valid 0Z WED 29 JAN 14Station: KVPSLatitude: 30.48Longitude: -86.53-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1019 21 0.5 -0.5 93 1.0 0.0 358 14 272.2 272.8 272.2 281.9 3.60 1 1000 169 -1.6 -2.3 95 0.6 -1.9 360 19 271.5 272.0 271.3 280.2 3.23 2 950 575 -3.5 -4.0 96 0.5 -3.6 12 25 273.7 274.2 272.2 281.9 3.00 3 900 1016 6.5 5.9 96 0.6 6.2 278 22 288.2 289.4 284.0 306.5 6.48 4 850 1485 5.3 4.7 96 0.5 5.0 269 30 291.7 292.8 285.2 309.9 6.33 5 800 1979 3.5 3.4 100 0.1 3.4 251 25 294.8 295.9 286.3 312.7 6.12 6 750 2503 2.6 2.6 100 0.0 2.7 232 36 299.4 300.6 288.0 317.8 6.18 7 700 3059 0.3 0.2 100 0.1 0.3 223 47 302.8 303.8 288.6 319.6 5.56 8 650 3651 -2.6 -2.6 100 0.0 -2.6 225 50 306.0 306.9 289.0 320.9 4.85 9 600 4282 -6.2 -6.3 100 0.1 -6.2 233 59 308.9 309.7 289.2 321.4 3.99 10 550 4958 -9.8 -10.9 92 1.0 -10.2 245 68 312.4 313.0 289.4 322.1 3.03 11 500 5687 -14.5 -16.5 85 2.0 -15.1 254 74 315.4 315.8 289.5 322.4 2.11 12 450 6478 -19.4 -21.7 82 2.3 -20.0 256 81 318.8 319.1 289.9 323.9 1.49 13 400 7342 -25.9 -28.5 79 2.6 -26.4 254 85 321.3 321.5 290.1 324.5 0.91 14 350 8294 -33.4 -36.3 75 3.0 -33.7 250 87 323.8 323.9 290.5 325.5 0.49 15 300 9359 -40.9 -44.4 69 3.4 -41.2 247 97 327.7 327.7 291.3 328.6 0.25 16 250 10578 -48.8 -52.9 62 4.1 -49.0 253 121 333.6 333.6 292.8 334.0 0.11 17 200 12019 -54.7 -67.3 20 12.6 -54.9 252 137 346.2 346.2 295.8 346.3 0.02 18 150 13838 -60.6 -78.8 7 18.2 -60.8 252 121 365.7 365.7 299.8 365.7 0.01 19 100 16287 -70.3 -85.6 9 15.3 -70.4 257 89 391.9 391.9 304.0 391.9 0.00TRP 0 WND 0 I'm not 100% sure I'm either but it looks like a cold rain to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 When this really gets cranking in ATL, I would not be surprised to see temps fall to the upper teens to 22..Rapidly filling in over ATL proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 12z nam. newest rap is similar. Thanks! As for the radar returns in ATL, wouldn't that be attributable to the dry air. If you look at a non-local radar.. you should be able to see better returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 When looking at the RAP I think it's important to understand with waffles in precip totals that's going to greatly depend on banding. This is going to create some sharp cutoffs. Where those start is anyone's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Question for a pro or wise weenie. Is this a sleet sounding or is the frozen layer not cold enough to freeze the relatively warm precip falling through? In the bigger picture, what are the guidelines on how warm upper levels can be/how cold lower levels have to be for precip to be sleet vs. CR? Date: 12 hour Eta valid 0Z WED 29 JAN 14Station: KVPSLatitude: 30.48Longitude: -86.53-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1019 21 0.5 -0.5 93 1.0 0.0 358 14 272.2 272.8 272.2 281.9 3.60 1 1000 169 -1.6 -2.3 95 0.6 -1.9 360 19 271.5 272.0 271.3 280.2 3.23 2 950 575 -3.5 -4.0 96 0.5 -3.6 12 25 273.7 274.2 272.2 281.9 3.00 3 900 1016 6.5 5.9 96 0.6 6.2 278 22 288.2 289.4 284.0 306.5 6.48 4 850 1485 5.3 4.7 96 0.5 5.0 269 30 291.7 292.8 285.2 309.9 6.33 5 800 1979 3.5 3.4 100 0.1 3.4 251 25 294.8 295.9 286.3 312.7 6.12 6 750 2503 2.6 2.6 100 0.0 2.7 232 36 299.4 300.6 288.0 317.8 6.18 7 700 3059 0.3 0.2 100 0.1 0.3 223 47 302.8 303.8 288.6 319.6 5.56 8 650 3651 -2.6 -2.6 100 0.0 -2.6 225 50 306.0 306.9 289.0 320.9 4.85 9 600 4282 -6.2 -6.3 100 0.1 -6.2 233 59 308.9 309.7 289.2 321.4 3.99 10 550 4958 -9.8 -10.9 92 1.0 -10.2 245 68 312.4 313.0 289.4 322.1 3.03 11 500 5687 -14.5 -16.5 85 2.0 -15.1 254 74 315.4 315.8 289.5 322.4 2.11 12 450 6478 -19.4 -21.7 82 2.3 -20.0 256 81 318.8 319.1 289.9 323.9 1.49 13 400 7342 -25.9 -28.5 79 2.6 -26.4 254 85 321.3 321.5 290.1 324.5 0.91 14 350 8294 -33.4 -36.3 75 3.0 -33.7 250 87 323.8 323.9 290.5 325.5 0.49 15 300 9359 -40.9 -44.4 69 3.4 -41.2 247 97 327.7 327.7 291.3 328.6 0.25 16 250 10578 -48.8 -52.9 62 4.1 -49.0 253 121 333.6 333.6 292.8 334.0 0.11 17 200 12019 -54.7 -67.3 20 12.6 -54.9 252 137 346.2 346.2 295.8 346.3 0.02 18 150 13838 -60.6 -78.8 7 18.2 -60.8 252 121 365.7 365.7 299.8 365.7 0.01 19 100 16287 -70.3 -85.6 9 15.3 -70.4 257 89 391.9 391.9 304.0 391.9 0.00TRP 0 WND 0 That would be rain at first. That is a deep warm layer and the cold layer at the surface isn't deep or cold enough. However I would imagine it dropping enough for freezing rain pretty soon with the wetbulb at 0. But thanks to that warm layer it wouldn't freeze too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 How useful is the SREF at this range? On the 9z, plumes are firmly in the 1.5 to 3" category for RMG and I am about 20 miles NE of that location. Seems that would translate well for locations further east in NGA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Precip shield is still trending NW on the RAP. Take it w/ a grain a salt of course, but this does fall in line with what we've seen so far regarding the overall trend here. 14z RAP trend loop at 10 hrs: http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=rap&run_time=14z¶m=850mbTSLPprecip&map=US&run_hour=10&loop=trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Precip shield is still trending NW on the RAP. Take it w/ a grain a salt of course, but this does fall in line with what we've seen so far regarding the overall trend here. Sure does look overdone though. Cut precip by a 1/3 is probably a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Latest from GSP on totals: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 New 14z RAP is tickling 1" for the eastern Triangle. MUCH juicier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 NWS BMX is getting several requests for a Civil Emergency Message urging residents to stay off the roads. Not something you see every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Precip shield is still trending NW on the RAP. Take it w/ a grain a salt of course, but this does fall in line with what we've seen so far regarding the overall trend here. 14z RAP trend loop at 10 hrs: http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=rap&run_time=14z¶m=850mbTSLPprecip&map=US&run_hour=10&loop=trend Yep for folks just north and west of CLT it really ramps up precip. Spots that had .10 are now getting .20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Sure does. This is really going in line with the latest radar trends. Thanks for the RAP WOW. Yep for folks just north and west of CLT it really ramps up precip. Spots that had .10 are now getting .20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Winter Storm Warning now for York County. GSP going with nearly 4" for the eastern half of the county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yep for folks just north and west of CLT it really ramps up precip. Spots that had .10 are now getting .20. I think I-85 folks may want to pay attention here... could be a nice band of heavier precip near here. 0.75" qpf or more is definitely possible closer to CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Here may be part of the reason for the increasing totals across the area... A small low is trying to develop in western NC. I know it is weak, but when you combine it with the upper level features, it has the potential to be a wild card in this situation. It also has the potential to surprise a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GSP uppping totals for the CLT metro, upped easter Meck and most of Cabarrus Co to the 2.5-3" range, was only in the 1.5 - 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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