NCWeSU Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Here may be part of the reason for the increasing totals across the area... A small low is trying to develop in western NC. I know it is weak, but when you combine it with the upper level features, it has the potential to be a wild card in this situation. It also has the potential to surprise a lot of people. I also think this low is going to enhance warming aloft and could lead to some sleet for some that weren't expecting it, including the RDU area. At the very least we could see some decreased ratios. 12z NAM is picking up on this. Could see some lower snow totals because of that unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think I-85 folks may want to pay attention here... could be a nice band of heavier precip near here. 0.75" qpf or more is definitely possible closer to CLT. No doubt between 85 and 95 may end up the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think I-85 folks may want to pay attention here... could be a nice band of heavier precip near here. 0.75" qpf or more is definitely possible closer to CLT. Whatchoo talkin bout willis? Where did you get that amount of precip Wow? The highest I've seen for Meck county is from the SREF; maybe .4 or so. One of the things that enchanced the Feb 2004 storm was a secondary low development during the storm....like has been mentioned, maybe that's on the table....I'm such a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Whatchoo talkin bout willis? Where did you get that amount of precip Wow? The highest I've seen for Meck county is from the SREF; maybe .4 or so. One of the things that enchanced the Feb 2004 storm was a secondary low development during the storm....like has been mentioned, maybe that's on the table....I'm such a weenie. It's the RAP and it's trends over the last few hours. CLT is around .4 right now and if it keeps trending we'll be in .6 in a few hours. Now can that be believed? I think it can given the overall setup but we won't know until it's on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 My latest and probably last forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BraseltonGAWX Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 26 in Va Highland,odd. It's the darn lee side eddy that Lookout was talking about. 37.5 here in Braselton. The temp inversion compared to Atl metro is something you don't see every day and it really stinks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's the darn lee side eddy that Lookout was talking about. 37.5 here in Braselton. The temp inversion compared to Atl metro is something you don't see every day and it really stinks! Here is a great temp map for GA http://www.griffin.uga.edu/aemn/cgi-bin/AEMN.pl?site=AAAA&report=XT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Interesting, GFS just ticked NW. RAH is lowering amounts everywhere due to dry air and warm noses, interesting to see who is correct, RAH is usually spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Here is a great temp map for GA http://www.griffin.uga.edu/aemn/cgi-bin/AEMN.pl?site=AAAA&report=XT seriously, click here and turn on station markers. Zoom in http://www.daculaweather.com/current/misc/google-maps-radar/4_google_radar.php Everything refreshes automatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Interesting, GFS just ticked NW. RAH is lowering amounts everywhere due to dry air and warm noses, interesting to see who is correct, RAH is usually spot on. If we get the type of vertical motion shown by some of the models, dry air will be easily overcome especially from Triangle east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 HRRR puts charlotte in the dry slot. in addition slams the mtns with snow and the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 If we get the type of vertical motion shown by some of the models, dry air will be easily overcome especially from Triangle east. Are you concerned about warming aloft producing several hours of sleet, cutting down totals significantly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 RAP is rippin! MCN in the 0.7-0.8in precip ya, solid .85" QPF of which .50" is snow from what I can tell in bufkit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Interesting, GFS just ticked NW. RAH is lowering amounts everywhere due to dry air and warm noses, interesting to see who is correct, RAH is usually spot on. More influence from the southern energy ejecting into the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 HRRR puts charlotte in the dry slot. in addition slams the mtns with snow and the coastal plain. That's funny because Brad P. showed differently had CLT with 3 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
airmarci Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I'm interested to see if the early precipitation in the southeast can get some diabatic enhancement of the upper jet going... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That's funny because Brad P. showed differently had CLT with 3 inches of snow. Yeah, that was pretty cool watching his video, that was impressive for CLT, 3-4" on the HRRR it looked like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Are you concerned about warming aloft producing several hours of sleet, cutting down totals significantly? Not over Wake County, Fayetteville to coastal plain maybe yes for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I believe I added up .6 on the RAP for MBY. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCStateMMY Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Not over Wake County, Fayetteville to coastal plain maybe yes for a while. Where in the coastal plain? Mainly east of Fayetteville, or more NE towards Rocky Mount? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That's good news, maybe we will finally get the big ticket event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS looks wetter. .20" qpf more this run around here...Looks like RAP 12zGFS showing .70" QPF 14z RAP showing .85" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I believe I added up .6 on the RAP for MBY. Wow! I'm so encouraged by the model trends this morning! I think we could all get warning-criteria snowfall from this! Wow at the RAP, the NAM, etc.! NWS point forecast is up to 1-3" here and I'm under a WWA (nothing last night). If the RAP verifies, we need to give it props because it signaled this thing was going to be a bigger deal for the western Piedmont and foothills last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 GFS was a solid 5" at RDU I think...close to 6" here...all at 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 ya, solid .85" QPF of which .50" is snow from what I can tell in bufkit Chris, FFC says temps are warmer in the eastern zones of their forecast area than what was expected. The forecast for Houston County now says all rain through the afternoon. They say the mixed precip won't begin until tonight. Your thoughts? EDIT: I should have read your entire comment. Not sure what Bufkit is showing for Perry, but the NWS completely removed frozen precip from today's forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 I believe I added up .6 on the RAP for MBY. Wow! Latest RAP is really training on the area between 85 and 77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think Rocky Mount gets some sleet. I think GFS is underdoing warm nose aloft and NAM is probably overdoing. But I think there will be a period of time this evening where sleet mixes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Not over Wake County, Fayetteville to coastal plain maybe yes for a while. Thanks Allan. The 14z RAP 850 temps looked very good throughout. I don't know if there is another level to pay attention to. I looked at 700 and 925 too, and they looked good as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 12z RGEM really beefed up QPF and made a nice jog west in the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It sure is. This is been a nice trend this morning. Latest RAP is really training on the area between 85 and 77. Come on skip. Post a map brother 12z RGEM really beefed up QPF and made a nice jog west in the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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