Wow Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Had the southern s/w been farther east it would be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 29, 2014 Author Share Posted January 29, 2014 Had the southern s/w been farther east it would be a different story. Yep we were dependent on that northern energy digging far enough. Tough when you're counting on a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Well I have learned at least for our area, for us to get really good snow rates, we usually not always, need a more organized low pressure with a well formed deformation band. We can get good snow from an overrunning set up, but typically we need this more organized synoptic scale feature. QPF forecasting in models is better than it was, but will always remain very challenging as most of the processes that produce precipitation occur on really small scales and also aloft and are thus tough to model, even in high resolution models. Thanks, that makes sense. I don't remember the last big snow we got from an overrunning setup. I'm sure it's happened and I haven't reviewed all of the case studies, but I wondered if the fact that we were relying on overrunning as opposed to a strong system came into play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Well I have learned at least for our area, for us to get really good snow rates, we usually not always, need a more organized low pressure with a well formed deformation band. We can get good snow from an overrunning set up, but typically we need this more organized synoptic scale feature. QPF forecasting in models is better than it was, but will always remain very challenging as most of the processes that produce precipitation occur on really small scales and also aloft and are thus tough to model, even in high resolution models. I realize the Mountains of WNC present their own unique forecasting challenges but, a great example of this in yesterdays storm was a small area in N Buncombe county. While most of the county got 1-2" a very small are including mby got 3.25 & +. This is not a favored area for NWFS, Gulf lows, ect. We just happened to be "in the right place at the right time". I was shocked when we headed out to my Wife's horse barn, which out preforms us in snow events, & they had much less snow than the house did. I realize this is a much smaller area than what you are referring to but, there are some parallels that I thought were worth mentioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Any maps of how cold it may get tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Any maps of how cold it may get tonight?What's cooler than cool? Ice cold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Any maps of how cold it may get tonight? http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=rah&FcstType=text&zmx=1&zmy=1&map.x=210&map.y=96&site=RAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Just want to jump on here this morning and thank all the mets and other knowledgable folks for providing great information and expertise here this last week. Great stuff no matter how much snow anyone got or didn't get. A hardy job everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 What an unbelievable day in Atlanta. Anyone from Atlanta who knows much about weather could see this coming. I just spent 8 hours getting from Norcross to marietta. I had to travel the north side of 285, my total trip one way is about 26 miles. What a saw was unreal. It took me 6 hours to go 20 miles. During that time I saw people walking down the side of the interstate in packs. There were cars just left on the side of the road everywhere, hundreds. I got within six miles of my house and the terrain is hilly so it was impassable in my vehicle at that point along with the massive gridlock from people attempting the hills. I got out and walked six miles in about two hours. All I had was a pair of jeans, sneakers, sweater, and wool coat. What I was missing was a hat and gloves. So I walked 4 miles without a hat, stopped at an open gas station, bought a hat and a hot coffee and took off for the other two miles. Within one mile of my house the terrain is very steep both up and down the hills. There were about 50 cars parked there along with a few accidents that people didn't move. So there were quite a few of my neighbors who had to walk about a mile due to the access begin blocked without a four wheel drive. I will remember today for the rest of my life and tallied enough oh **** moments to last me through till 2015. Glad to hear you made it through that. I have been there. In 2005 left work at 2;00 to get my daughter who was in middle school at the time. She was 12 miles away. Didn't get to the school till 11:30 that night and I had a 4 wheel drive. Not much more frustrating than trying to get to a child that needs you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 2 fatalities in Surry County from the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCWeSU Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 My hypothesis on why this system under performed was due to the arctic air being drier than expected in North Carolina. RAH mentioned it in their early morning update yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 2 fatalities in Surry County from the storm. Avalanche? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 +1! Would like to add a thanks to all the people who came from different forums to lend input. & of course Larry (GaWx) & his crew for sniffing this one out. SE crew rocks! Don, Thanks! The Euro ensemble was one of the great tools that helped me make the decision to start the thread. Shawn headed the crew with his emphasis on what the individual Euro ensemble members were showing as well as backing my decision to start it. So, he deserves credit for a huge assist so to speak. The Euro and its ensembles' snowfall shown in the bar graphs/clowns are clearly way overdone since they obviously count nonsnow as snow. Why they count precip. falling with 850's above 0 C as snow is beyond me. However, the important thing was how these runs looked vs. years of past runs that have rarely shown such a wintry threat run after run starting about 7-8 days out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 As well as Robert and Dr. Phil, great educational information. When these guys post, I learn something new every time and I love it. Thanks to the rest of the red-tags and crew. And of course Larry, my Georgia weather friend, good mojo brother! Steve, Thanks! I'm not sure that all Atlantans would call it "good" mojo, however, based on the continuing huge mess there. I bet some would prefer I never start another winter storm thread. If I'm paid enough to not start another one, I might consider the offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 My hypothesis on why this system under performed was due to the arctic air being drier than expected in North Carolina. RAH mentioned it in their early morning update yesterday. Exactly what I called out first of week and suggested cutting model totals by at least half or more to accommodate for the inability for the column to be easily moistened due to sublimation. It takes a moist column and a strong amount of lift to get the better accumulations. In the mountains, the snow has had very low moisture content all winter long also making it difficult to get a consistent snow pack this year. Hopefully the European is onto something for the WNW parts of NC next week. The chances drop dramatically though south of I-40. Don't be surprised though if this trends to the NW for an Ohio Valley storm. We'll see and hope for the best but never wishcast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 The correlation of ATL tending to get 1"+ of snow when SAV's main wintry precip. is measurable ZR or IP came through with this storm. So, I now count this occurring 6 out of 7 times when SAV's main wintry precip. was IP and/or ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Don't worry Southern Pines invested in a plow! We going to add that to our fleet!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 We going to add that to our fleet!! That thing could have saved Atlanta. It could have zipped around between the stuck vehicles cleared the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Cap off the thread with a snow map or NC, does GA/SC produce these for there areas? Still painful to see RDU missing 4-5" by about 20 miles, looks like the coast jack potted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Here is one from NWS CAE for the event: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This series of storms isn't through as CHS has been getting light ZR, ZL, IP, and even a few flurries in spots for several hours from that 2nd wave that has been monitored! Any CHS obs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Reports of sleet in onslow and pender counties... accuwx has freezing drizzle tonight.. look like some light icing possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Cap off the thread with a snow map or NC, does GA/SC produce these for there areas? Still painful to see RDU missing 4-5" by about 20 miles, looks like the coast jack potted. Thanks for posting.Excellent respresentative accurate map statewide from NWS RDU. They are great with these maps. I archive all of them. I can vouch for the accuracy of the half inch dust up down at work in Charlotte. There is a cold shady northern side of the parking deck in Charlotte at work. 1/2 inch is exactly what accumulated. The mountains, western foothills and the east coastal plain and coast were the winners on this one. Congrats to the Eastern Coastal Plain, this was your storm from the get go starting with the trends and the huge ECMWF model run 12z Thursday of last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm guaranteeing the 10 day storm. This will happen, the southeast is going to be digging out from this one. Locked down 100% place your bets now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm guaranteeing the 10 day storm. This will happen, the southeast is going to be digging out from this one. Locked down 100% place your bets now. I'm taking Denver and the under for anyone who is interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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