timnc910

I understand everyone's frustrations about not being in the epicenter of the upcoming storm. Living in Southeastern North Carolina i was this happen to us all the time. Models come in showing a good hit then boom the inevitable NW trend or warm nose comes along. It has been many many years since Southeastern North Carolina has seen a decent winter storm.

Was a snow and sleet mixed now its all snow. Some nice size flakes coming down

Moderate snow and sleet here in Maple Hill

i was just looking at the radar and the precip field already looks more expansive than the hrrr has initialized at. although it isn't much but it will be nice to see snow falling here in se nc.

Way to premature for this thread. There is so much spread in all the models. This isnt like the dec storm where most models were in agreement.

Some of the banter post in the discussion thread is just ridiculous. i go in there to get reliable information about the upcoming pattern and possible storms. However i have to sort through numerous of unrelated post than the topic at hand. All this cliff diving between each model suite itself is quite appalling. For example 0z could be showing a great setup and everyone is pumped up and talking about certain dates that could potentially produce storms. then 6z could show and unfavorable set up and everyone is going crazy filling the discussion with pointless post screaming torch fest and we never can get a good set up etc. Again we are in the south east. I myself want to get wintry weather as bad as any other person on this board but if it doesn't happen i don't go in the discussion thread with my self pity ranting about why each model suit wasn't as favorable as the other.

18z is back to reality. Brings back the trough instead of the ridge that 12z was showing

Can anyone suggest a better moblie radar other than weatherbug

that is the upper level part of this storm. that is what is suppose to swing through with the second wave of precip. Although models have trended less with the precip from this feature as it swings through.

Out to hour 9 on the nam. the high pressure is 2 mb stronger and further east.

looking at current radar the returns out ahead of the system are moving in a southeastern fashion. It will be interesting to see if that leads to a more suppressed track than being modeled.

could the multiple areas of high pressure that is now being model( which i believe is what people refer to banana high) be giving the models trouble right now?

It looks like the wave dropping down on the back side is developing better off the coast on the 0z

At hour 90 the low is a good bit further off the coast than the 18z run

out to 102 of the fv3 gfs the snow fall mean has shifted south a good bit. if you go back and compare the previous runs the southern trend that Wow pointed out is clearly noticeable