donsutherland1 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 A quick note on Atlanta's snowfall... The city received 2.3", which set a daily record. It was also that city's biggest snowfall since 1/9-10/2011. Models did a good job with the snowfall and run-to-run continuity was good. The GFS did particularly well. Moreover, such a snowfall was consistent with the city's climatology. Using the last 30 years as a reference point, the return time for 2" or greater snowfalls was once every 2.3 years. Put another way, one could reasonably argue that such a snowfall might have been overdue. The chart below illustrates the number of cases for select snowfall amounts and return times associated with those snowfalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 What an unbelievable day in Atlanta. Anyone from Atlanta who knows much about weather could see this coming. I just spent 8 hours getting from Norcross to marietta. I had to travel the north side of 285, my total trip one way is about 26 miles. What a saw was unreal. It took me 6 hours to go 20 miles. During that time I saw people walking down the side of the interstate in packs. There were cars just left on the side of the road everywhere, hundreds. I got within six miles of my house and the terrain is hilly so it was impassable in my vehicle at that point along with the massive gridlock from people attempting the hills. I got out and walked six miles in about two hours. All I had was a pair of jeans, sneakers, sweater, and wool coat. What I was missing was a hat and gloves. So I walked 4 miles without a hat, stopped at an open gas station, bought a hat and a hot coffee and took off for the other two miles. Within one mile of my house the terrain is very steep both up and down the hills. There were about 50 cars parked there along with a few accidents that people didn't move. So there were quite a few of my neighbors who had to walk about a mile due to the access begin blocked without a four wheel drive. I will remember today for the rest of my life and tallied enough oh **** moments to last me through till 2015. By the time you tell this story to your grandkids, there will be 2 feet of snow, 60 mile per hour winds and a pack of wolves. Glad you got home ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxKnurd Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 What an unbelievable day in Atlanta. Anyone from Atlanta who knows much about weather could see this coming. I just spent 8 hours getting from Norcross to marietta. I had to travel the north side of 285, my total trip one way is about 26 miles. What a saw was unreal. It took me 6 hours to go 20 miles. During that time I saw people walking down the side of the interstate in packs. There were cars just left on the side of the road everywhere, hundreds. I got within six miles of my house and the terrain is hilly so it was impassable in my vehicle at that point along with the massive gridlock from people attempting the hills. I got out and walked six miles in about two hours. All I had was a pair of jeans, sneakers, sweater, and wool coat. What I was missing was a hat and gloves. So I walked 4 miles without a hat, stopped at an open gas station, bought a hat and a hot coffee and took off for the other two miles. Within one mile of my house the terrain is very steep both up and down the hills. There were about 50 cars parked there along with a few accidents that people didn't move. So there were quite a few of my neighbors who had to walk about a mile due to the access begin blocked without a four wheel drive. I will remember today for the rest of my life and tallied enough oh **** moments to last me through till 2015. Good to hear you are safe! I know the feeling, I did a 3-mile~ish walk from NC State's campus to my apartment complex in 2005 in just about the same kind of weather minus the amount of snow accumulation with about the same thing on, except I at least I had a hat. News out of ATL is definitely going to be the biggest story of this storm IMO, even if things blow up over NE NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 What an unbelievable day in Atlanta. Anyone from Atlanta who knows much about weather could see this coming. I just spent 8 hours getting from Norcross to marietta. I had to travel the north side of 285, my total trip one way is about 26 miles. What a saw was unreal. It took me 6 hours to go 20 miles. During that time I saw people walking down the side of the interstate in packs. There were cars just left on the side of the road everywhere, hundreds. I got within six miles of my house and the terrain is hilly so it was impassable in my vehicle at that point along with the massive gridlock from people attempting the hills. I got out and walked six miles in about two hours. All I had was a pair of jeans, sneakers, sweater, and wool coat. What I was missing was a hat and gloves. So I walked 4 miles without a hat, stopped at an open gas station, bought a hat and a hot coffee and took off for the other two miles. Within one mile of my house the terrain is very steep both up and down the hills. There were about 50 cars parked there along with a few accidents that people didn't move. So there were quite a few of my neighbors who had to walk about a mile due to the access begin blocked without a four wheel drive. I will remember today for the rest of my life and tallied enough oh **** moments to last me through till 2015. I'm happy to learn that you made it safely home and feel for everyone who was caught in today's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 What an unbelievable day in Atlanta. Anyone from Atlanta who knows much about weather could see this coming. I just spent 8 hours getting from Norcross to marietta. I had to travel the north side of 285, my total trip one way is about 26 miles. What a saw was unreal. It took me 6 hours to go 20 miles. During that time I saw people walking down the side of the interstate in packs. There were cars just left on the side of the road everywhere, hundreds. I got within six miles of my house and the terrain is hilly so it was impassable in my vehicle at that point along with the massive gridlock from people attempting the hills. I got out and walked six miles in about two hours. All I had was a pair of jeans, sneakers, sweater, and wool coat. What I was missing was a hat and gloves. So I walked 4 miles without a hat, stopped at an open gas station, bought a hat and a hot coffee and took off for the other two miles. Within one mile of my house the terrain is very steep both up and down the hills. There were about 50 cars parked there along with a few accidents that people didn't move. So there were quite a few of my neighbors who had to walk about a mile due to the access begin blocked without a four wheel drive. I will remember today for the rest of my life and tallied enough oh **** moments to last me through till 2015. Glad you made it home safely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 What an unbelievable day in Atlanta. Anyone from Atlanta who knows much about weather could see this coming. I just spent 8 hours getting from Norcross to marietta. I had to travel the north side of 285, my total trip one way is about 26 miles. What a saw was unreal. It took me 6 hours to go 20 miles. During that time I saw people walking down the side of the interstate in packs. There were cars just left on the side of the road everywhere, hundreds. I got within six miles of my house and the terrain is hilly so it was impassable in my vehicle at that point along with the massive gridlock from people attempting the hills. I got out and walked six miles in about two hours. All I had was a pair of jeans, sneakers, sweater, and wool coat. What I was missing was a hat and gloves. So I walked 4 miles without a hat, stopped at an open gas station, bought a hat and a hot coffee and took off for the other two miles. Within one mile of my house the terrain is very steep both up and down the hills. There were about 50 cars parked there along with a few accidents that people didn't move. So there were quite a few of my neighbors who had to walk about a mile due to the access begin blocked without a four wheel drive. I will remember today for the rest of my life and tallied enough oh **** moments to last me through till 2015. I am SOOOOO glad I do not live in or near atlanta. Glad you made it back ok though. The adventure/horror stories are incredible. btw, there is a thread for the atlanta mess in case you missed it. Would love to hear more after you get some rest lol A quick note on Atlanta's snowfall... The city received 2.3", which set a daily record. It was also that city's biggest snowfall since 1/9-10/2011. Models did a good job with the snowfall and run-to-run continuity was good. The GFS did particularly well. Moreover, such a snowfall was consistent with the city's climatology. Using the last 30 years as a reference point, the return time for 2" or greater snowfalls was once every 2.3 years. Put another way, one could reasonably argue that such a snowfall might have been overdue. The chart below illustrates the number of cases for select snowfall amounts and return times associated with those snowfalls. Too bad atlanta doesn't have more like you around. They could have used it. By the time you tell this story to your grandkids, there will be 2 feet of snow, 60 mile per hour winds and a pack of wolves. Glad you got home ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 What an unbelievable day in Atlanta. Anyone from Atlanta who knows much about weather could see this coming. I just spent 8 hours getting from Norcross to marietta. I had to travel the north side of 285, my total trip one way is about 26 miles. What a saw was unreal. It took me 6 hours to go 20 miles. During that time I saw people walking down the side of the interstate in packs. There were cars just left on the side of the road everywhere, hundreds. I got within six miles of my house and the terrain is hilly so it was impassable in my vehicle at that point along with the massive gridlock from people attempting the hills. I got out and walked six miles in about two hours. All I had was a pair of jeans, sneakers, sweater, and wool coat. What I was missing was a hat and gloves. So I walked 4 miles without a hat, stopped at an open gas station, bought a hat and a hot coffee and took off for the other two miles. Within one mile of my house the terrain is very steep both up and down the hills. There were about 50 cars parked there along with a few accidents that people didn't move. So there were quite a few of my neighbors who had to walk about a mile due to the access begin blocked without a four wheel drive. I will remember today for the rest of my life and tallied enough oh **** moments to last me through till 2015. It's crazy to hear that people are walking 5+ miles to get home...some over 15 especially in those cold temps and snow falling all day. Good to see you are doing alright. Unreal how a meager 1-4 inch snowstorm can do this to a 5.5 million people metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I would like to extend a thank you to the mets who offered their insight today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I would like to extend a thank you to the mets who offered their insight today Signed, Mayor of Atlanta Atlanta School Superintendent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 This is interesting for FWB -- note time stamp -- 21z WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The back end tried to creep back slowly towards the metro area, but alas. There are also a few small banded returns north of Greenville around the state line as well as some in the mountains. I can't imagine anything but a few flurries, but I'll happily accept my 1.5 inches of powder and move forward. Good luck to all east, and may the back-building continue and intensify. My folks in Edenton are going to get slammed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 This radar makes me very very happy being we are up in the NE corner of it and already getting good snow looks like it is going to last awhile and might even see some 1-2" rates with some of this stuff http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LTX-N0Q-1-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 This radar makes me very very happy being we are up in the NE corner of it and already getting good snow looks like it is going to last awhile and might even see some 1-2" rates with some of this stuff http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=LTX-N0Q-1-24 It drives me nuts that I'm 20 miles away from you and I'm only getting sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Watching a plume of moisture racing northeast from near CAE. If that makes it here, it would make up for a good bit of the sleet starvation we suffered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Watching a plume of moisture racing northeast from near CAE. If that makes it here, it would make up for a good bit of the sleet starvation we suffered. That band just left my house. Gave me a final inch to top off my night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Watching a plume of moisture racing northeast from near CAE. If that makes it here, it would make up for a good bit of the sleet starvation we suffered. That band just left my house. Gave me a final inch to top off my night. Really hope it does. Trying to pull up the radar on my old slow computer now. Most I measured in my yard was ~2.4-2.5. Another inch would satisfy me after a very disappointing start. Heaviest bands in my area seems to have been in between Lumberton, Kinston and Goldsboro. Just to my east. TWC has FAY at 3.0" right now, so wouldn't be surprised if they have 4"+ there by now. yep, kinston 5.5" lumberton 6.2" goldsboro 4.1" clinton 5.2" well, so i guess looking at the totals it didn't bust as bad as i thought...did GSO metro really only get 0.5"? Everyone was saying their ground was covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLO Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Can someone explain how weather.com radar is showing no more snow over CAE while accuweather still shows moisture from all the way back to florida and alabama still coming through til like 4-5 am? Weather.com is clearly right bc its stopped here in CAE like their radar says. But does accuweather include virga in their radars? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SD1 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201401290712-KGSP-NOUS42-PNSGSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I would like to extend a thank you to the mets who offered their insight today I 2nd this thanks to all the mets and to everyone else that took the time to contribute to this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Special thanks to the Red Taggers and SE Crew(you know who you are) that filled this thread with the best knowledge available. Also to our Super Secret Black Ops Ninja's.....Seanus, Jeremy, John......You all ROCK!! I know I appreciate everything you all do and that is what makes this place so special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Special thanks to the Red Taggers and SE Crew(you know who you are) that filled this thread with the best knowledge available. Also to our Super Secret Black Ops Ninja's.....Seanus, Jeremy, John......You all ROCK!! I know I appreciate everything you all do and that is what makes this place so special +1! Would like to add a thanks to all the people who came from different forums to lend input. & of course Larry (GaWx) & his crew for sniffing this one out. SE crew rocks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 As well as Robert and Dr. Phil, great educational information. When these guys post, I learn something new every time and I love it. Thanks to the rest of the red-tags and crew. And of course Larry, my Georgia weather friend, good mojo brother! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 What an unbelievable day in Atlanta. Anyone from Atlanta who knows much about weather could see this coming. I just spent 8 hours getting from Norcross to marietta. I had to travel the north side of 285, my total trip one way is about 26 miles. What a saw was unreal. It took me 6 hours to go 20 miles. During that time I saw people walking down the side of the interstate in packs. There were cars just left on the side of the road everywhere, hundreds. I got within six miles of my house and the terrain is hilly so it was impassable in my vehicle at that point along with the massive gridlock from people attempting the hills. I got out and walked six miles in about two hours. All I had was a pair of jeans, sneakers, sweater, and wool coat. What I was missing was a hat and gloves. So I walked 4 miles without a hat, stopped at an open gas station, bought a hat and a hot coffee and took off for the other two miles. Within one mile of my house the terrain is very steep both up and down the hills. There were about 50 cars parked there along with a few accidents that people didn't move. So there were quite a few of my neighbors who had to walk about a mile due to the access begin blocked without a four wheel drive. I will remember today for the rest of my life and tallied enough oh **** moments to last me through till 2015. Amazing story, Marietta. Thanks for sharing your travails. Glad to hear you made it safely. And, as Lookout posted, I'm glad I don't live in Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 What an unbelievable day in Atlanta. Anyone from Atlanta who knows much about weather could see this coming. I just spent 8 hours getting from Norcross to marietta. I had to travel the north side of 285, my total trip one way is about 26 miles. What a saw was unreal. It took me 6 hours to go 20 miles. During that time I saw people walking down the side of the interstate in packs. There were cars just left on the side of the road everywhere, hundreds. I got within six miles of my house and the terrain is hilly so it was impassable in my vehicle at that point along with the massive gridlock from people attempting the hills. I got out and walked six miles in about two hours. All I had was a pair of jeans, sneakers, sweater, and wool coat. What I was missing was a hat and gloves. So I walked 4 miles without a hat, stopped at an open gas station, bought a hat and a hot coffee and took off for the other two miles. Within one mile of my house the terrain is very steep both up and down the hills. There were about 50 cars parked there along with a few accidents that people didn't move. So there were quite a few of my neighbors who had to walk about a mile due to the access begin blocked without a four wheel drive. I will remember today for the rest of my life and tallied enough oh **** moments to last me through till 2015. Man that is crazy. I'm glad you're safe and you made it home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Ended up with 2 inches here in Youngsville. Definitely less across the Triangle then I expected and on the lower ends of my ranges in most places. Best lift seemed to go east of where the RAP was showing during the day. Looks like RDU airport only recorded 0.18 inches of QPF way below what was shown by the models. Another example it seems of the models overpredicting QPF. So tricky though because it isnt like that every event. Live and learn. I did enjoy my 2 inches of powder here with temps in the teens. Cant complain I guess. On to the next one. Nice thing is just about everyone at least saw something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooter Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Looks like forum members a safe and hopefully happy to see some winter weather in their area. It's been a long time since I had trouble keeping up with everyones input on the storm thread and obs thread. Had almost forgotten what that was like Thanks to everyone who helped sort it all out, redtagger and unofficial red taggers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 What an unbelievable day in Atlanta. Anyone from Atlanta who knows much about weather could see this coming. I just spent 8 hours getting from Norcross to marietta. I had to travel the north side of 285, my total trip one way is about 26 miles. What a saw was unreal. It took me 6 hours to go 20 miles. During that time I saw people walking down the side of the interstate in packs. There were cars just left on the side of the road everywhere, hundreds. I got within six miles of my house and the terrain is hilly so it was impassable in my vehicle at that point along with the massive gridlock from people attempting the hills. I got out and walked six miles in about two hours. All I had was a pair of jeans, sneakers, sweater, and wool coat. What I was missing was a hat and gloves. So I walked 4 miles without a hat, stopped at an open gas station, bought a hat and a hot coffee and took off for the other two miles. Within one mile of my house the terrain is very steep both up and down the hills. There were about 50 cars parked there along with a few accidents that people didn't move. So there were quite a few of my neighbors who had to walk about a mile due to the access begin blocked without a four wheel drive. I will remember today for the rest of my life and tallied enough oh **** moments to last me through till 2015. Same thing happened to me in '82. I worked in DeKalb county and had to drive back to Marietta. Had to ditch the car on the side road at 285 and the river and start walking. Luckily, a really tiny car came along with about 8 people crammed in it (looked like a clown car) and they took me almost all the way home. Glad you made it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Ended up with 2 inches here in Youngsville. Definitely less across the Triangle then I expected and on the lower ends of my ranges in most places. Best lift seemed to go east of where the RAP was showing during the day. Looks like RDU airport only recorded 0.18 inches of QPF way below what was shown by the models. Another example it seems of the models overpredicting QPF. So tricky though because it isnt like that every event. Live and learn. I did enjoy my 2 inches of powder here with temps in the teens. Cant complain I guess. On to the next one. Nice thing is just about everyone at least saw something. Allan, all of the models showed, at the minimum, double that amount of qpf. Are there certain situations where they do well vs not do well? This was a huge qpf bust across the board. I didn't see any convection, robbing the moisture transport. If we can't rely on modeling to even get in the ballpark with qpf, then we have no hope of being able to forecast snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'm assuming the main issue was the super cold air, how to get that moisture wrapped into the cold air w/o sacrificing precip type. It'd be interesting to start a little thread about the why's behind classic busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Allan, all of the models showed, at the minimum, double that amount of qpf. Are there certain situations where they do well vs not do well? This was a huge qpf bust across the board. I didn't see any convection, robbing the moisture transport. If we can't rely on modeling to even get in the ballpark with qpf, then we have no hope of being able to forecast snow amounts. Well I have learned at least for our area, for us to get really good snow rates, we usually not always, need a more organized low pressure with a well formed deformation band. We can get good snow from an overrunning set up, but typically we need this more organized synoptic scale feature. QPF forecasting in models is better than it was, but will always remain very challenging as most of the processes that produce precipitation occur on really small scales and also aloft and are thus tough to model, even in high resolution models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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