FLweather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Latest RAP is shifting that band of heavier moisture west in central NC. MBY keeps inching closer to the .50 mark. Gonna greatly depend on the bands we get under. Honestly looking at the 500mb flow it shows the trough sharpening up over TX,LA,AR which would pull everything back further west. Considering the looks on WV I would expect this trend to continue and the model runs by rap to continue and even get better/wetter along the I85 corridor. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yes it takes that into affect. Even if it didn't and we assumed that the RAH estimate of .15 was correct that still leaves much of the east with .40 which would be 15:1 ratios so no complaining if it pans out! Awesome. Thank you sir. That's what I thought. No complaining at all from me...and you KNOW THIS, MAN! That is a BIG increase from one hour to the next. Not sure why, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This was never a north of 85 storm to begin with Thanks for the reverse psychology mojo banter! It really helped us up north of 85 to get snow! Looks like Robert scored the coup on this one. Great job man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Kabong Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I actually think models are a bit too quick moving the precip in. I'm talking about what will actually hit the ground. Chris, What is your forecast looking like for central Georgia? I'm about 30 miles south of you and hoping that we at least get a mixture of IP and snow. The NWS forecast is calling for predominately ZR and sleet. According to them, we're not supposed to go over to all snow until after 3AM. Appreciate your insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Lookout, friend of mine is reporting sleet in LaGrange... this is not an ob post, more of a verification of where the atmosphere is saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I actually think models are a bit too quick moving the precip in. I'm talking about what will actually hit the ground. Delta, I'm about half and half now, but very small. You can see it, but it's not getting much heft yet upstairs. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Check out the really strong lift over RDU and NC NE piedmont at 00z from the nam. That type of strong lift in that region, will produce great ratios while it is occurring. could be inch/hour rates or better for a few hours this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Good to know. Dry up here so far, but that's encouraging. Sticking to the roads any? RAP says we get in on a little of the fun later on. Yep, roads are covered throughout the area. Man, if the RAP pulls this off, I will be a VERY happy camper! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Chris, What is your forecast looking like for central Georgia? I'm about 30 miles south of you and hoping that we at least get a mixture of IP and snow. The NWS forecast is calling for predominately ZR and sleet. According to them, we're not supposed to go over to all snow until after 3AM. Appreciate your insight. El K, the nam has me with a lot more sleet, which I hope is true, but the gfs gives me less qpf, and all snow. All along Ptree City has given me a mix. And that's what coming down now. But who knows once the real show begins. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfide Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Still nada, here, lookout. I think I'm still at 25. You can see the snow just above the tree tops it seems! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Robert just updated his blog with a call map. Things are looking good for MBY and points just east of here. Has me in 3-4 inches. I'll take it! www.wxsouth.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It looks like the NAM increased totals NE of RDU...6-7" amounts running up through Roanoke Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 NAM is probably a tenth or so better down here. The RAP is really exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Chris, What is your forecast looking like for central Georgia? I'm about 30 miles south of you and hoping that we at least get a mixture of IP and snow. The NWS forecast is calling for predominately ZR and sleet. According to them, we're not supposed to go over to all snow until after 3AM. Appreciate your insight. I still think we start out with a little bit of rain/sleet/freezing rain...maybe up to .20" of ZR/IP then 1-3" of snow after about 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The models are and have done a awful job with this storm!!! The only places it has been all right on is the eastern regions. I don't think this western move has stopped, could be wrong but it is as good a forecast as any model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 NAM is probably a tenth or so better down here. The RAP is really exciting. Oh Hi-RES those heavy returns miss us just to the east. RAP is keeping those further to the west and a larger swath. It's gonna get real interesting today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Batman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Still nada, here, lookout. I think I'm still at 25. You can see the snow just above the tree tops it seems! Same here in Tyrone. Looks like it could start hitting the ground at any time, but nothing yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 12Z NAM with the wetest run yet for WNC, close to .25 at AVL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The models are and have done a awful job with this storm!!! The only places it has been all right on is the eastern regions. I don't think this western move has stopped, could be wrong but it is as good a forecast as any model. big dry slot opening up just to my west, over mountains and foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It looks like the NAM increased totals NE of RDU...6-7" amounts running up through Roanoke Rapids. Nam is a significant jump west with qpf amounts from 6Z Considering the trends of RAP and NAM someplaces along the 85 corridor in NC may be near a foot of snow. 12 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 12z NAM painting a slightly less icy scenario for Charleston as it cuts back on precip during this afternoon/evening (also keeps sfc temps a bit warmer). Precip is now a bit heavier after 1am and lingers past noon, when the temp profile is more supportive of sleet and ultimately snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Love that finger of over .25 in sw nc. Maybe we can hit 4-6 inches. Some of the sref members showed this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pbrown85 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I know I don't post much, but I have always enjoyed reading you guys' posts on here. Are there any different ideas for the Upstate SC area? Specifically Greenville and Pickens Counties? Right now our local guys are saying anywhere between a dusting to possibly 2 inches with the high end of some estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I wonder if temps will start to fall after the precip starts ? It's only 24 here. Could we have snow and temps around 20 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The models don't matter (besides the rap for certain trends)... this page has everything you need: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# The 850's are crashing right North of my house a little bit sooner it seems. I still think there will be a sharp cutoff of predominantly snow vs sleet in Mildands of South Carolina as a whole. Reading NOAAS discussion this morning reinforces that. Just depends on where that warm nose is. Temps were a little slow getting in here; but should continue to drop through the day. Dewpoint is around 7 for KCAE proper. Could be a good thing that we aren't into the negative dews as long as the surface temp comes down which I am sure it will, along with Larry, Tony, and Stormsfury's locations. Here's hoping you guys get out of nasty ZR quickly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 13z. Head east my friends. Puts MBY in .50 keep trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Love the lesser amounts in the lee side. But like the slug heading into the Southern mountains. Franklin will love that. 13z. Head east my friends. Puts MBY in .50 keep trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUProud Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Steady sleet falling in Senoia, just south of Peachtree City, for about an hour now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Latest NAM and RAP are really moving the NW edge of the decent precip further NW. This has pretty big implications for the Triad region. If the models are to believed, the 3 inch line has moved between Greensboro and Winston where earlier runs had it closer to Burlington. We will see if these totals verify, but I'm wondering what the models are picking up on? It seems as if the overrunning moisture at the onset is merging with the main storm that was supposed to be confined to coastal SC/NC regions. It's providing extra lift in the I-85 corridor I think which starts to fill in the gaps in these regions. I don't think it will get all the way back to the foothills though. Fun times! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Can anybody explain why the RAP continues to beef up precip totals? More interaction with the southern system, creating an even sharper trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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