HurricaneTracker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 12Z NAM with the wetest run yet for WNC, close to .25 at AVL NAM finally joins the party with just hours left in the event. This is why I don't trust it anymore beyond 18 hours out. It has been playing "catch up" all season long. This storm is no exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Can anybody explain why the RAP continues to beef up precip totals? More interaction with the southern system, creating an even sharper trough? Trough is better oriented I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 13z. Head east my friends. Puts MBY in .50 keep trending. 3/4" moving into S Meck county. Just a little bit more and I'll be good to go for a 4"+ event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's heavier, and all sleet. The propane guy just delivered and he said it was all sleet where he's been, and he's nervous about the roads getting bad earlier. By the way for you on propane be ready for a bad shock. It went from 2.29 to 3.50 last night, and he doesn't know if he can get more for his tanks when he runs out. The shortage is heading this way. What a great time for it T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 wow, 12z NAM slams the coast with heavy snow this run as the precip ends and the 2nd wave is so close to giving us a second shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Trough is better oriented I believe. That's what I'm thinking as well. Good trends....I hope it's not offset with warmer mid-levels and a change-over to ice pellets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Steady sleet falling in Senoia, just south of Peachtree City, for about an hour now I had a bit of snow mixing in earlier, when it was light, but now it's heavier, it's all sleet. Did you see any snow over there? T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 To my untrained eye, the energy in AR, looks to be meeting up with the main slug of moisture and turning the whole shield of precip back slightly to a more S toN orientation, as opposed to SW to NE!? Anybody else see this on radar? A very good thing for us to the west ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Any snow maps for the recent runs?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What's going on with the precip. hole in the Atlanta area...precip is struggling to reach this area based on radars last hour or so....a little worrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Any snow maps for the recent runs?? 12z nam. newest rap is similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What's going on with the precip. hole in the Atlanta area...precip is struggling to reach this area based on radars last hour or so....a little worrying. I know, even though its way below freezing, could be the heat island effect, it will come soon though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 My wife just called and said flurries have finally made their way to the surface in Bartow County (Cartersville) at I-75 and Hwy 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 What's going on with the precip. hole in the Atlanta area...precip is struggling to reach this area based on radars last hour or so....a little worrying. The holes aren't real. There is plenty of Virga over us now it isn't reaching the ground and close to te radar it can't be picked up. We are still 1-2 hour from it hitting the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I know, even though its way below freezing, could be the heat island effect, it will come soon though. What's going on with the precip. hole in the Atlanta area...precip is struggling to reach this area based on radars last hour or so....a little worrying. This has been answered in the OBS thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 WxSouth just said on facebook that totals will be 6 to 10" widespread from RDU to ORF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This has been answered in the OBS thread. Could you be kind enough to explain it, instead of having to go through 50 pages? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 well, if the RAP is right...hold on..lol Hammers this area as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUProud Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I had a bit of snow mixing in earlier, when it was light, but now it's heavier, it's all sleet. Did you see any snow over there? T Haven't seen any yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Just to let everyone know, the RAP model is FREE to everyone in the Amwx Model Center: http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=rap&run_time=13z¶m=500mbvort&map=NA&run_hour=17 You can see the trough pulling the energy out of the southern s/w by the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I know, even though its way below freezing, could be the heat island effect, it will come soon though. It's filling in for both sides up there. The sleet is hard enough to hear inside the house now. This makes me extremely happy. Get a good base coat down so the crazys can't mess up the roads for sledding later It's sticking on surfaces now, not just bouncing into the grass. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That's what I'm thinking as well. Good trends....I hope it's not offset with warmer mid-levels and a change-over to ice pellets. The overall trough is sharping and backing the flow up some. More of N/S alignment. But recent trends on rap and nam shows weak ULL forming along the second good wave of it. Look at that map Raleighwx posted and look at the RH charts of RAP and NAM at 700. Shows a "coma head" indicative of a ull later on over SC/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scsnowgirl Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Why is their lighter snow just around the east side of the mountains? It seems to be there on every model people are posting? TIA for your answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Could you be kind enough to explain it, instead of having to go through 50 pages? Thanks http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42597-128-130-se-winter-storm-obs/?p=2692624 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven_1974 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 WxSouth just said on facebook that totals will be 6 to 10" widespread from RDU to ORF. I would love to see that in Cary. Hopefully it will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The overall trough is sharping and backing the flow up some. More of N/S alignment. But recent trends on rap and nam shows weak ULL forming along the second good wave of it. Look at that map Raleighwx posted and look at the RH charts of RAP and NAM at 700. Shows a "coma head" indicative of a ull later on over SC/NC. Don't you need a more organized and mature low pressure system for a comma head to form though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 WxSouth just said on facebook that totals will be 6 to 10" widespread from RDU to ORF. Also said some local spots could hit 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 To my untrained eye, the energy in AR, looks to be meeting up with the main slug of moisture and turning the whole shield of precip back slightly to a more S toN orientation, as opposed to SW to NE!? Anybody else see this on radar? A very good thing for us to the west ! I too am observing this and the baja low also appears to be further east than was forecasted. Pensacola/Mobile already dealing with some wintery mix this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Check out @wxbrad's Tweet: https://twitter.com/wxbrad/status/428172379588935680 Also had another tweet, Charlotte in play for 2-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The RAP cannot be any closer for my backyard when precip starts. On Lake Murray; it's literraly between 0.1 and 0.0 cecius where it matters. Whew! Here's hoping it's a bit colder for everyone in the Midlands. Edit: WoW; I sent you a message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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