Tyler Penland Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Careful with these simulated radars as nws is reporting .15 to saturate the column. That's at lot folks when you are only get .5 or less The RAP is taking into account that if you compare the sim refl to actual surface precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I assume most know this, well maybe not the new folks around here. Always good to remind the group. Thanks Careful with these simulated radars as nws is reporting .15 to saturate the column. That's at lot folks when you are only get .5 or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This whole trend is going to be north, just like Larry was talking about. The cold didn't push as far south, therefore the line of heavier precip will be further north. They are still in the 40's along the Florida gulf coast, in the 50's in Savannah. I was almost 4 degrees warmer last night than I was suppose to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 On the KATL radar looks like snow is coming in from the NE and SW. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=FFC&loop=yes Yep Virga. Snow should break through around 10-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I think the heavy precip rates will be able to overcome the dry air, though, and most of central NC will see 6 inches at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I assume most know this, well maybe not the new folks around here. Always good to remind the group. Thanks Ok, but is that a fixed reflectivity or a dynamic reflectivity based on these conditions?Edit: this is a very very dry advection based on nws asessment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This whole trend is going to be north, just like Larry was talking about. The cold didn't push as far south, therefore the line of heavier precip will be further north. They are still in the 40's along the Florida gulf coast, in the 50's in Savannah. I was almost 4 degrees warmer last night than I was suppose to be. That's why you have to account for the NW trend every single time. I had a feeling cold air wouldn't penetrate as far south. Now it's looking like the area between Atlanta and Macon will be plastered when it was showing areas south of Macon before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Yep Virga. Snow should break through around 10-11.my superintendent just came in and said some flurries were flying at his house in Ellijay. Got to start somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The RAP is taking into account that if you compare the sim refl to actual surface precip. Correct. This whole trend is going to be north, just like Larry was talking about. The cold didn't push as far south, therefore the line of heavier precip will be further north. They are still in the 40's along the Florida gulf coast, in the 50's in Savannah. I was almost 4 degrees warmer last night than I was suppose to be. It sure is behind what was being shown just 24 hours ago. It's still only 33 here when I was supposed to be 25 or 26. Nam now has highs here around 35 or 36, gfs has temps staying about where they are, and the rap is just off the charts showing temps in to the low to even mid 40s. With very thick cloud cover, precip starting later this morning, those temps aren't going to happen most likely. In fact, the rap doesn't hardly show any surface cooling at all well after precip is reaching the ground..which is just impossible. But mid 30s to even as high as 37 or so is not out of the question here if there is a delay in the precip. That is 10 degrees warmer than the nam/gfs were showing up until last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Someone else could answer, but I think it depends of the site you are posting from. Ok, but is that a fixed reflectivity or a dynamic reflectivity based on these conditions?Edit: this is a very very dry advection based on nws asessment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Correct. It sure is behind what was being shown just 24 hours ago. It's still only 33 here when I was supposed to be 25 or 26. Nam now has highs here around 35 or 36, gfs has temps staying about where they are, and the rap is just off the charts showing temps in to the low to even mid 40s. With very thick cloud cover, precip starting later this morning, those temps aren't going to happen most likely. In fact, the rap doesn't hardly show any surface cooling at all well after precip is reaching the ground..which is just impossible. But mid 30s to even as high as 37 or so is not out of the question here if there is a delay in the precip. That is 10 degrees warmer than the nam/gfs were showing up until last evening. i knew the cold air was delayed until it blasted through last night. however i am a bit surprised - most of the cold air masses this winter have tended to be a bit (or lot) colder and stronger than anticipated and i assumed this one would be too. interesting to say the least (and just shows even at the imminent beginning of a southern snow you still just never know lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Current 850 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/850mb/850mb_sf.gif?1390913577425 Current 925 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/925mb/925mb_sf.gif?1390913627907 Correct. It sure is behind what was being shown just 24 hours ago. It's still only 33 here when I was supposed to be 25 or 26. Nam now has highs here around 35 or 36, gfs has temps staying about where they are, and the rap is just off the charts showing temps in to the low to even mid 40s. With very thick cloud cover, precip starting later this morning, those temps aren't going to happen most likely. In fact, the rap doesn't hardly show any surface cooling at all well after precip is reaching the ground..which is just impossible. But mid 30s to even as high as 37 or so is not out of the question here if there is a delay in the precip. That is 10 degrees warmer than the nam/gfs were showing up until last evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 i knew the cold air was delayed until it blasted through last night. however i am a bit surprised - most of the cold air masses this winter have tended to be a bit (or lot) colder and stronger than anticipated and i assumed this one would be too. interesting to say the least (and just shows even at the imminent beginning of a southern snow you still just never know lol) I know. The good news is, I think snow will start reaching the ground very shortly just south of atlanta if the returns hold firm. Even basic reflectivity shows returns now near the atlanta radar site which means it's making it pretty far down with top dbz on the order of 30dbz. Will be interesting to see just how heavy it has to be before it reaches the ground but I said yesterday whoever is fortunate to be under the initial band(s) of precip will see it reach the surface before most others. That band is forming in this direction so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 28, 2014 Author Share Posted January 28, 2014 Just for anyone interested low overnight was supposed to be 25 for me and it's currently 26...so it may just be the cold air is delayed but will still get south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Current 850 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/850mb/850mb_sf.gif?1390913577425 Current 925 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s19/925mb/925mb_sf.gif?1390913627907 wow, my memory isnt the greatest when it comes to the previous model runs etc. but am thinking that is quite a bit different. neither really seems anywhere near the coast at this point, and close to macon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 People are going about their normal routines in Atlanta. The interstate was packed and people were driving like maniacs. I could see a potential traffic nightmare getting ready to unfold for Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Still good CAA so those in the north and even central sections may still do well. I wonder about those areas further south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This whole trend is going to be north, just like Larry was talking about. The cold didn't push as far south, therefore the line of heavier precip will be further north. They are still in the 40's along the Florida gulf coast, in the 50's in Savannah. I was almost 4 degrees warmer last night than I was suppose to be. Well if it does indeed turn out that way. Which it does look more favorable between I85 I20 and I95 I guess it will be a good bust wow, my memory isnt the greatest when it comes to the previous model runs etc. but am thinking that is quite a bit different. neither really seems anywhere near the coast at this point, and close to macon Looks like the 850 front is lagging behind too. Which would support heaviest precip axis further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Checking MYR: They're at 37 with a TD of only 16 as of 7 AM. So, wetbulb is now 30. Per the 6Z Goofy, they were progged to have temp of 36 but with a TD of 33 for a wetbulb of 35. Despite the lag of the Arctic air, this may be an ominous sign down the road with regard to the major ZR threat down the coast. I had thought that the lag would possibly save some in the SAV-CHS corridor (especially SAV) from a bad icestorm. Perhaps they still could be saved. However, this dry air will be advecting down the coast and likely make it to CHS within a few hours and to SAV a few hours after that. So, I'm not as hopeful. Stormsfury may be right about this air being too dry to prevent the widespread, sig. icestorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 First reports of snow hitting the ground up here in TN are coming in, even as far west as Memphis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I know. The good news is, I think snow will start reaching the ground very shortly just south of atlanta if the returns hold firm. Even basic reflectivity shows returns now near the atlanta radar site which means it's making it pretty far down. That band is forming in this direction so we'll see. Just looking out the window they are making it pretty far down here right now. Been virga-ing steadily since I got up this morning around 4:30. People are going about their normal routines in Atlanta. The interstate was packed and people were driving like maniacs. I could see a potential traffic nightmare getting ready to unfold for Atlanta. Snowjam '88 redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 People are going about their normal routines in Atlanta. The interstate was packed and people were driving like maniacs. I could see a potential traffic nightmare getting ready to unfold for Atlanta. The school release situation will be terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That early morning RAH discussion regarding dew points and .15 qpf to moisten the column was not what I expected to read this morning...especially after all the talk last night of the cold under performing in other areas. I was expecting to see snow reach the ground here around 4pm...if that is still the case then I think the original accums will work out. Otherwise...losing one quarter of total accums in such a tight gradient could be painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
max100 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 People are going about their normal routines in Atlanta. The interstate was packed and people were driving like maniacs. I could see a potential traffic nightmare getting ready to unfold for Atlanta. This could be 1982 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looks like coastal NC and upper SC are good as of now. wow, my memory isnt the greatest when it comes to the previous model runs etc. but am thinking that is quite a bit different. neither really seems anywhere near the coast at this point, and close to macon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I know. The good news is, I think snow will start reaching the ground very shortly just south of atlanta if the returns hold firm. Even basic reflectivity shows returns now near the atlanta radar site which means it's making it pretty far down. That band is forming in this direction so we'll see. even though its virga, i will admit it is certainly nice to see the radars all starting to fill in (usually its the opposite it seems). the heavier returns are showing up near atl so hopefully you are right and it will soon saturate and reach the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That early morning RAH discussion regarding dew points and .15 qpf to moisten the column was not what I expected to read this morning...especially after all the talk last night of the cold under performing in other areas. I was expecting to see snow reach the ground here around 4pm...if that is still the case then I think the original accums will work out. Otherwise...losing one quarter of total accums in such a tight gradient could be painful. I think we'll be okay once the precip gets here and we won't be wasting much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Here's the 7am GSO sounding...yikes that's some dry air at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's snow here really fine snow flakes. I live near Pilot Mountain, which is in Surry County Northern foothills region. So don't worry about the saturation it will happen. And it is turning the roads white Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 No virga here in southside VA! Already have a dusting, which is more than anyone local called for period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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