WxJordan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That's the inverted trough I was referring to last night... its doing exactly what we expected producing a secondary axis of lift aiding in snowfall across WNC and even TN. You sure did, and it is helping to aid snow development in the western Carolinas. I am not sure how strong it will get, the RAP has the pressure dropping to 1019 mb, so we will see. There could be some very unique enhancements across the mountains, foothills, and western piedmont of NC. Hard to say where, but someone may be surprised. I believe you went to UNCA, this similar situation actually appeared on one of Dr. Miller's Synoptic test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ollie Williams Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That's the inverted trough I was referring to last night... its doing exactly what we expected producing a secondary axis of lift aiding in snowfall across WNC and even TN. I can not see how areas North and West of Greensboro in the Piedmont see even an inch with dry cold air still filtering in. I would be surprised if any location in Forsyth, Stokes, Surry, or Rockingam County sees an inch out of this. Hope I am wrong though for the people back home. Surry County already has 1/2 - 1" on the ground with light snow continuing to fall. I think Allans snowfall map is spot on. Plus see above the comment by Phil (and WxJordan), the inverted trough really makes a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 I hope it's right...but it's probably overdone. Still... .50 or more looks likely for us. .50 would be great. With the higher ratios we could still see 7+ inches. No bad.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 The RAP nailed that Birmingham band. Birmingham looks like a disaster. A WSW was just tossed out for 2-3" of snow. Wrecks everywhere. Schools weren't released until it was too late, apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Let's review: Bust Potential: Sun Angle: Minimal Soil Temp: Minimal Convective Robbing: Minimal QPF bust for other reasons: Always possible Boundary Layer Issues: Minimal In my book it is as good a chance as any down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 RAP continues to have a good look in the upstate along I85. This is for HR 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Looks like WRAL upped totals a tad and shifted heavier snow NW….has ColdRain in the 5-10" area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 RAP continues to have a good look in the upstate along I85. This is for HR 7 Wow, that looks really good. Perhaps that secondary low is going to juice things up the 85 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow dog Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 RAP continues to have a good look in the upstate along I85. This is for HR 7 Nice-I'll take that and go home smiling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thrasher Fan Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 NWS GSP @NWSGSP 1m The winter weather advisory has been expanded to include all of the western NC mountains for 2-3 inches of snow. #SEstorm #ncwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lj0109 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 @NWSCharlestonSC "Ice Storm Wrng has been changed to a Winter Storm Wrng. Dangerous ice still xpctd but risk for snow impacts are incrg." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's interesting to note there seems to possibly be a couple of weak disturbances moving northeast. One seems to be over central alabama and moving into west ga and another back over southern ms. The rap has been showing for some time now these two enhanced areas of precip moving northeast and eventually moves into eastern sc/nc. You can really see it on the 500mb to 850mb vertical velocity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 11:30 am update NWS GSP @NWSGSP 1m The winter weather advisory has been expanded to include all of the western NC mountains for 2-3 inches of snow. #SEstorm #ncwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 It's interesting to note there seems to possibly be a couple of weak disturbances moving northeast. One seems to be over central alabama and moving into west ga and another back over southern ms. The rap has been showing for some time now these two enhanced areas of precip moving northeast and eventually moves into eastern sc/nc. You can really see it on the 500mb to 850mb vertical velocity. Looking at the water vapor loop made me smile http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Each run of the RAP wants to sharpen the trough just a little bit more and get a little more south and a little more interaction with the southern energy in Mx. I keep thinking it will scale back on precip but it's holding OK, I am sure it will over the next few runs but it is interesting how it's handling the two pieces of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 @NWSCharlestonSC "Ice Storm Wrng has been changed to a Winter Storm Wrng. Dangerous ice still xpctd but risk for snow impacts are incrg." I'd seen the graphic changed but the ZFP still had the ice storm warnings for extreme coastal counties. Looks like now the totals at least for Dorchester county ranging from 2-6 inches now. 1-3 snow possible overnight, another 1-3 snow possible Wednsday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Each run of the RAP wants to sharpen the trough just a little bit more and get a little more south and a little more interaction with the southern energy in Mx. I keep thinking it will scale back on precip but it's holding OK, I am sure it will over the next few runs but it is interesting how it's handling the two pieces of energy. If the RAP is correct we're in for a historic storm. But as others have stated use it for trends.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSnow Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Snowing in Tryon, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 That band to the east over Pitt County is back building while the band to the west is just beginning to increase in coverage. These are good signs for getting snow into the Triangle between 4-5 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 If the RAP is correct we're in for a historic storm. But as others have stated use it for trends.... Unless something goes horribly wrong in the next few hours 4-5" looks good for RDU, probably 6" where you are. Still hesitant though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Dang! NAM warm nose slams us in the Sandhills with up to .5 sleet. I'm hoping and enhanced motion from those small disturbances helps knock that down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 This alert was generated by the National Weather ServiceEMWIN (Emergency Managers Weather Information Network)from messages received by DaculaWeather.com EMWIN server.NOUS42 KWNO 281747ADMNFDSENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD1744Z TUE JAN 28 2014FYI...The new RTMA v2.2.1 was implemented this morning effectivewith the 14Z cycle.The RTMA TIN, it details the directory structure changeshttp://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification/tin13-39rtma_q4aaa.htmSDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 RAP seems to be doing very well so far to my surprise. Birmingham getting 1-3 inches is incredible when they weren't even in the game 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 We have no advisories, nothing just a special weather statement. Hmm Looking at the radar and the WV things are starting to come together and maybe a big surprise if the Vort in Mexico and the Energy coming down in west Texas phase. Forgot it's being snowing since 7:30 with the road lightly covered and slick. Still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 RAP soundings are much kinder for Sandhill sleet. Looks like a couple of hours of light sleet on the front side, then snow when heavier batch approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Unless something goes horribly wrong in the next few hours 4-5" looks good for RDU, probably 6" where you are. Still hesitant though. The way the bands will orient themselves you and myself will probably get the same thing. I'm always hesitant with NC snow. It's real hard right now to see the storm developing and having to wait for it come/develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 We have no advisories, nothing just a special weather statement. Hmm Looking at the radar and the WV things are starting to come together and maybe a big surprise if the Vort in Mexico and the Energy coming down in west Texas phase. Forgot it's being snowing since 7:30 with the road lightly covered and slick. Still snowing That's RNK for ya, when its over with they will issue a winter weather advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 RAP.. 6pm... the 0 line already nearing RDU by then... http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=rap&run_time=17z¶m=850mbTSLPprecip&map=SE&run_hour=6&loop=trend Definite NW trend... may just be a RAP bias but we'll see. I-85 looking much better than what was forecast this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 Updated DT map, FWIW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 28, 2014 Share Posted January 28, 2014 RAP.. 6pm... the 0 line already nearing RDU by then... http://www.americanwx.com/models/index.html?&model=rap&run_time=17z¶m=850mbTSLPprecip&map=SE&run_hour=6&loop=trend Definite NW trend... may just be a RAP bias but we'll see. I-85 looking much better than what was forecast this morning. I think it's been pretty good so far. It's interesting to note that the rap more or less stalls the back edge of the precip for a little while. I might only be 2 or 3 hours but the rap is showing some really good snow rates so it would make quite a difference. edit to add the latest rap doesn't just slow it down, it has the back edge not moving at all for several hours. So very close here I'm right on the line. 15 miles could make the difference of 2 or 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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