Welcome to American Weather

WxJordan

Meteorologist
  • Content count

    291
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About WxJordan

  • Rank
    (www.wxjordan.com)

Contact Methods

  • Website URL
    http://www.wxjordan.com

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KHKY
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Hildebran, NC
  • Interests
    Outside of forecasting the weather, I enjoy going to play golf, watching sports (especially football, basketball ,and baseball), and hanging out with friends.
    I am a graduate of the University of North Carolina of Asheville with a Bachelor of Science degree in Atmospheric Science.

Recent Profile Visitors

500 profile views
  1. It can happen, but the strength of the upper level disturbance should help us east of the mountains. We always have to worry about that dry slot, & unfortunately its not something that is easily forecasted. Personally, I think the area will see around a quarter of an inch of precip, which is 2-4 or 3-6 inches of snow.
  2. Just issued my first call map. Choose to stay on low end of guidance due to warm nose.....
  3. 4.25 inches of snow total for the event. Hildebran, NC
  4. Heavy snow mixed with sleet in Hildebran. Temp 33
  5. Light snow begins near Hickory, Temp: 37.7°
  6. Good Morning! I have updated my snow map and here is the latest call. Some areas could see locally heavier amounts where banding sets up. The biggest change was to lower western NC into a 3-6 category with higher amounts along the southern facing slopes of NC. Otherwise, the forecast is on track and looks good at the moment.
  7. Some of the moisture from this system will be brought from the Atlantic Ocean. There will be southeasterly winds almost entirely through the storm, so this could help to enhance the precipitation through the Carolinas. I expect that models could be under-doing the precipitation in certain areas, and that is why I am not shocked when the NAM increased precipitation at 0z. I expect nearly all the state to receive at least a 1/2 of an inch of precipitation, and areas from roughly I-77 west to receive over 3/4 of an inch of precipitation. Further east, 1+ inch of precip is likely.
  8. MY FIRST CALL MAP.... There will be surprises from this system, and someone will receive a lot of snow. I would not be shocked to hear some totals of 12 inches of snow, especially in the northeast part of NC and southeastern VA. Some areas could see bands of snow putting down 2-3 inches per hour. Crazy rates will be likely across the southeast. Thundersnow will also be possible as the storm deepens off the eastern seaboard. The difficult part of this forecast is determining where that elusive rain/snow line will set up. This map does a decent job at determining where that rain/snow line will set up; however, it may shift 30-50 miles depending on the final track of the storm. The energy at 500 mb is really strong, and this is what makes this storm different compared to the storm last week. The upper level dynamics are better, and thus I think precipitation totals will be higher as well. I actually think most areas east of the Blue Ridge will see over .5 of an inch of precipitation from the event in just 9 hours. Raleigh could see over an inch of precipitation from this event. There is no doubt this will be a fun storm to track, and I am looking forward to seeing what this storm produces. To read more about my opinions on this storm, you can visit my website: http://wxjordan.com/weather-forecast/forecast/184-major-winter-storm-brings-big-snow-to-southeast-united-states
  9. This type of system can provide some unexpected results, and I would not be shocked if a few areas reach one to two inches of snow outside the mountains in North Carolina and into Virginia. With the amount of energy and the unstable air mass ahead of the front, the dynamics are favorable for snow showers east of the mountains. Even though there will be northwest flow, there will be abundant energy and there appears to be good low level moisture in place. When all is said and done, I expect reports of a dusting to an inch of snow in places outside the mountains. The band of snow showers could have embedded elements that produce snow rates up to 1-2 inches an hour, and the precip axis should push through within two hours. It will be fun to watch this system unfold. Be sure to check out my blog post about this event: http://wxjordan.com/weather-forecast/forecast/175-quick-hitting-snow-possible-before-arctic-blast
  10. 25 and sleet Hildebran (near Hickory)
  11. I felt GSP was very conservative with their forecast, and even their discussion mentions precipitation ending Monday evening in the west. I feel like this is too early. Even the most recent NAM has precipitation lasting through early Tuesday morning in western NC, so I feel like the precipitation will not end as quickly. I feel like most areas will receive over .5 of an inch of precipitation from this event. We shall see.
  12. Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for the mountains, foothills, and piedmont in NC and advisories for parts of SC.
  13. Wow, just when I thought my forecast was good, the NAM comes in and says no. Going to look back over data; however, it is a battle with the GFS and NAM.
  14. 18z NAM shows a warm nose at 800 mb in HKY at 7 p.m. Monday... That is a really pronounced warm nose compared to GFS.
  15. My first accumulations map for this system.... This system has been a nightmare to track, and will probably have more surprises in store for us. I am worried about busting on the low ends in terms of snow and more ice in the foothills of NC. Other than that, I feel like my forecast is pretty good. Here is a portion from the blog I wrote describing the system.... "Snow and sleet will develop in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Virginia before changing to a cold rain in the far eastern part of the Carolinas and the piedmont of South Carolina. An icy mess of sleet and freezing rain will set up in the eastern piedmont of North Carolina, including Raleigh, Fayetteville, and Charlotte. Major ice accumulations are likely in this area. West and north of I-85, expect snow changing to a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Hickory and Winston-Salem will see up to a half a foot of snow and sleet mix with moderate ice accumulations. In the mountains, up to 10 inches of snow will be possible with a little sleet mixing in. In northern South Carolina, 1-4 inches of snow is possible with a quarter of an inch of ice possible. Far western NC, around Franklin, will see a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain with up to an inch of snow and light ice accumulations." You can read the blog post here: http://wxjordan.com/weather-forecast/forecast/172-winter-storm-brings-mixed-bag-of-snow-sleet-and-freezing-rain-to-nc-and-va