Strong Nor'Easter/Hybrid Storm Late September 2026

[East of the Parkway]

10 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I think the coastal flooding is going to be worse than many think.  

Seaside Parks reverse OEM reverse call is going to panic a lot of people. Probably rightfully so. 

[NJwx85]

The 12k NAM takes the center to basically Cape May by 06z Sunday.

[Big Jims Videos]

I'm at the Manasquan Inlet prepping for a 5pm live and it's not too bad here yet.  The Stevens tide model is showing major here for Saturday morning, a bit higher than the NOAA guide which keeps it just at moderate/minor levels. 

[NJwx85]

15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Both nams say what rain?   At least thru late saturday

 

[NsWx516]

21 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I think the coastal flooding is going to be worse than many think.  

Very much agreed. Factoring in ground saturation, heavy rains, and a full moon is no bueno for many

[wthrmn654]

25 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I think the coastal flooding is going to be worse than many think.  

They are all working on the cf products but they just told me and one of the TV mets that 

Hey guys were are still working on it. There are some changes to water levels and its complex coastline that we are dealing with. No changes to coastal flood benchmarks. Expecting a new CFW out within the hour.

[wthrmn654]

What's interesting here on the east end, the tide gauge in orient had a rather low, low tide level at 3:53. Lower then the last 2 low tides.  Winds are less today though so dunno exactly

[mob1]

RGEM also shifted SW. If this trend is real (too soon to tell given how globals look), it'll really eat into the precipitation totals for northern areas. 

[Rjay]

First call on the track

 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

First call on the track

 

Hopefully we get a repeat in February 

[EasternLI]

Most models seem to have the system max out sometime between 00z and 06z Sunday. So here's the 12z Euro ensembles at 06z Sunday. First image standard physics based EPS. Second image AI EPS. Personally still thinking this occurs somewhere just south of Montauk (~50-100mi). Be interesting to see what guidance does tonight.

 

 

[TriPol]

Man this would've made an incredible winter storm! Hopefully it sets up for the winter.

[wthrmn654]

This is from stony brooke storm surge research group.  Not much surge for Orient it would appear. 

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, mob1 said:

RGEM also shifted SW. If this trend is real (too soon to tell given how globals look), it'll really eat into the precipitation totals for northern areas. 

This storm might be warm core. Getting interesting. 

[Rjay]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This storm might be warm core. Getting interesting. 

Warm seclusion/weird hybrid 

[wthrmn654]

Well this looks bad?  I'm horrible at fully understanding surge forecasts... wish it could be overlays with minor moderate and major flood thresholds.

[MJO812]

Icon

[wthrmn654]

Ai, says that forecast us showing me at moderate to possibly major flooding.... that's a big is legit! 

[Rjay]

Lol

 

[wthrmn654]

Gefs has me over 6 and gfs has me at about 6. NAEFS-Based Guidance, which is multi model ensemble showing over 6... jeez didn't expect to see those kinda predictions...

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Lol

 

way way south.....hmmm NAM too

[Rmine1]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Lol

 

“Look kids! Big Ben, Parliament!”

 

[wthrmn654]

Would seem the storms been trending stronger as well...

[wthrmn654]

Did anyone see the hrdps?  Looks quite impressive at 18z

[guinness77]

36 minutes ago, Rjay said:

First call on the track

 

NAM 3km model?