October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm

[ineedsnow]

Hopefully the Euros trend north a bit before heading west.. on a side note Hawaii is having a great year.. some models at 12z hit the southern end then northern end now..

[Torch Tiger]

Hopefully LBSW

[Masswx]

If the euro is right it’s a nor meh ster not interested if it’s not gonna give me much

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Masswx said:

If the euro is right it’s a nor meh ster not interested if it’s not gonna give me much

The exact evolution of this thing is still to be determined.  And then the ultimate track is still up in the air.  So ways to go on this thing. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Scooters boss @vortex95should really go wild overnight!

[CoastalWx]

27 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The exact evolution of this thing is still to be determined.  And then the ultimate track is still up in the air.  So ways to go on this thing. 

I’ll slap some sense into him.

[ineedsnow]

fwiw the  18z HRRR and 15z SREFS  are pretty far south with the westward turn 

[amarshall]

.

[DirtySnowDen]

The only difference is that was a lot more tropical in nature , but the high to the north is more potent, ergo the pressure difference will be the same, high-pressure placement will be key to “meh” to something a lot more significant, over the next day. The area of the low pressure’s location makes me wonder.

[weatherwiz]

LLJ looks a bit more robust on the 18z NAM 

[Brian5671]

a bit north of 12z but still loops it pretty far south

3K is further north

[TheBudMan]

56 minutes ago, Masswx said:

If the euro is right it’s a nor meh ster not interested if it’s not gonna give me much

this is just straight up trolling Boris.    Well done young padawan !! 

[kdxken]

5 hours ago, dryslot said:

This, Ruptured tendon, Partially torn tendon,  Fractured hamate bone, Carpal tunnel surgery, Certainly wasn't going to be typing on a keyboard.

Jessuss! You're a shoe in to take the Halloween contest. 

[ROOSTA]

Without detailing, seemingly a no-brainer.
Power outages will be the greatest impact.  

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Hopefully the Euros trend north a bit before heading west.. on a side note Hawaii is having a great year.. some models at 12z hit the southern end then northern end now..

Hopefully it goes west in Virginia. I don't need five effin' inches of rain.

[DirtySnowDen]

If that high-pressure splits at the right time, it will “ dual-carb” the low with cold-ish water vapor off the North Atlantic, whilst also not allowing a clear “path of least resistance.” Hence the Fujiwara effect all models have.

[Brian5671]

both NAMS are so far south most of us get less than a half inch of rain lol

[DirtySnowDen]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

both NAMS are so far south most of us get less than a half inch of rain lol

Do we trust the NAM this far out?

[Brian5671]

Just now, DirtySnowDen said:

Do we trust the NAM this far out?

nope but it has maintained its solution for a couple runs now

[DirtySnowDen]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

nope but it has maintained its solution for a couple runs now.

It’s picking-up on its convective nature to wrap-in. A LIS or RI special, while the Globals are tuned differently…. You take the middle road at this timeframe.

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

nope but it has maintained its solution for a couple runs now

Then it’ll just bring that bitch up into RI in a run or two. We’ve seen this NAM movie before. 

[CoastalWx]

Nam may be doing Nam things along with the other hi res. It’s also putting a low where there is no low currently. It’s northeast of where models have. Not sure if that means much yet.

[ma blizzard]

47 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Hopefully it goes west in Virginia. I don't need five effin' inches of rain.

 

disastrous timing for plants currently flowering .. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

disastrous timing for plants currently flowering .. 

In the past, I’ve literally put easy up tents over my plants for these situations.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

Apple picking may still be on for Sunday!

Again, I’m not convinced this is some prolonged widespread event.

this could easily be breezy days with periodic downpours. Which is why im not sold on big rain totals. Isolated areas, maybe 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Again, I’m not convinced this is some prolonged widespread event.

this could easily be breezy days with periodic downpours. Which is why im not sold on big rain totals. Isolated areas, maybe 

Shocking.  Are you ever sold?  I mean you’re never sold until the storm ends at your house.  

[tiger_deF]

Models are trending a good bit stronger in the short term (HRRR out 14 hours is 5mb lower than a few runs ago) but of course a little more south/west. 
I think to max this out, either we stop the bleeding there while maintaining intensity, or hope that it is able to maintain intensity and occlude later, and move over SNE instead of burying itself in Long Island

[CCHurricane]

18Z GFS well south 42hrs out.