Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[Wxbear25]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Terrible analysis by him....huge hit for VA maybe-heads east.   It's also an off hour run the GFS at 18z is famous for crazy solutions

Just as crazy as saying to move on from the storm at this timeframe lol

[Brian5671]

Just now, Wxbear25 said:

Just as crazy as saying to move on from the storm at this timeframe lol

I cant get on board until I see support from the Euro-sorry

[nycsnow]

Was obvious from start there be 3 feet in Maryland lmao wild run

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Its still being pushed east southeast. Thats where it wants go

 

Read the tealeaves

The blocking is a bit too far south for NYC and north

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

No it’s not. For the love of God, stop this

 

[MJO812]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

The blocking is a bit too far south for NYC and north

Its easing on the gfs and cmc

 

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

I cant get on board until I see support from the Euro-sorry

It had been atrocious. 

[nycsnow]

Gfs is a tremendous hit verbatim lol no one believes it but to say it’s not a huge hit is a blatant lie… it’s literally 18-20 inches  south up to central jersey 

[WeatherGeek2025]

8 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Please stop dude. We all are begging you to post less. It’s one run and there’s been zero consistency. 

 

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Terrible analysis by him....huge hit for VA maybe-heads east.   It's also an off hour run the GFS at 18z is famous for crazy solutions

Look i get it im annoyingly optimistic but ive let things go on certain storms that didnt hit either, im very optimistic about this one and i think we essentially tuck and blizzard everybody across the board. Also i did say it was a huge hit cause it is its better than 12z and 6z its trending in the right direction! Give me a little credit here. piece of advice to you, never give up!

 

[NEG NAO]

18Z GFS gives most of the immediate NYC Warning Level Snows - lets leave it at that one model - one run 4 -5 days out onto ensembles then 0Z runs

[Jt17]

Gfs is a tremendous hit verbatim lol no one believes it but to say it’s not a huge hit is a blatant lie… it’s literally 18-20 inches  south up to central jersey 

Most people live in a 20 mile radius of nyc that is just population statistics and I'm sure this New York thread is the same. That being said. If the storm gains 30-40 miles latitude before getting pushed east it's 15+ for the city too


.

[weatherpruf]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Advisory level up here. Crushed 50 to 100 miles south

a little late in the year for them to get a huge snow; we all analyzed this idea back in 2010, when they got all the snow; except for the last one in feb.....that hit north....the infamous snowicaine.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

a little late in the year for them to get a huge snow; we all analyzed this idea back in 2010, when they got all the snow; except for the last one in feb.....that hit north....the infamous snowicaine.

Mainstream media is going to have a field day with this the GFS their favorite model

[ForestHillWx]

It’s having difficulty with phasing; you can see the jump from 21z to 0z. That doesn’t make a whole lot of sense; hopefully it irons out in our favor. 

I’m just glad the potential exists for now; we live to see more model runs! 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

 

Look i get it im annoyingly optimistic but ive let things go on certain storms that didnt hit either, im very optimistic about this one and i think we essentially tuck and blizzard everybody across the board. Also i did say it was a huge hit cause it is its better than 12z and 6z its trending in the right direction! Give me a little credit here. piece of advice to you, never give up!

 

Love your enthusiasm but post a map or some analysis before simply writing "huge hit"

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Most people live in a 20 mile radius of nyc that is just population statistics and I'm sure this New York thread is the same. That being said. If the storm gains 30-40 miles latitude before getting pushed east it's 15+ for the city too


.

and then we get into what is cnj....ocean county technically is, but storms that dump there often stop at mid monmouth and then skirt east to  long island, skipping most of north jersey and even middlesex and somerset counties.

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said:

It’s having difficulty with phasing; you can see the jump from 21z to 0z. That doesn’t make a whole lot of sense; hopefully it irons out in our favor. 

I’m just glad the potential exists for now; we live to see more model runs! 

and the Euro snowhole over the region makes no sense either 2 runs in a row GFS is overdone in many areas and the Euro is underdone IMO

[NEG NAO]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

and then we get into what is cnj....ocean county technically is, but storms that dump there often stop at mid monmouth and then skirt east to  long island, skipping most of north jersey and even middlesex and somerset counties.

like you said earlier - its late in the game for big snows in south jersey and those ridiculous amounts on the coastal Del Marva - will never verify

[EasternLI]

2 minutes ago, Wxbear25 said:

When I say the orientation of the wave, this is exactly what I mean. The s/w rounding the trough is much faster to round the axis turning it negative earlier

the big risk you run with the GFS-type solution is it cutting off and meandering too far south which, seeing the frames later, is exactly what it does

get that to occur 75-100 miles north and then you’re talking massive hit

The Saturday energy seems to get out of the way faster too. That would help. Would just like the euro to do anything like this now. Think there's plenty of time left to adjust the track if we can just get some agreement on something coming together.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

a little late in the year for them to get a huge snow; we all analyzed this idea back in 2010, when they got all the snow; except for the last one in feb.....that hit north....the infamous snowicaine.

So you're questioning the southern Delmarva getting 35 inches from this storm? It seems reasonable.

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Even though it is stuck at hour 96 you can already tell the 18z gfs ai is too progressive and the ridge is too far east

[weatherpruf]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Mainstream media is going to have a field day with this the GFS their favorite model

its not the mainstream that is hyping this online, it's the fringe sites, unless you count the ny post.....

[kat5hurricane]

20 minutes ago, BoulderWX said:

Please stop dude. We all are begging you to post less. It’s one run and there’s been zero consistency. 

It's so annoying. It's not even funny, it just clutters up the threads and belongs in banter IMO.

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

like you said earlier - its late in the game for big snows in south jersey and those ridiculous amounts on the coastal Del Marva - will never verify

they made out in march 2018 iirc.....that's about the only one i can think of.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, Jersey_Snowhole said:

Even though it is stuck at hour 96 you can already tell the 18z gfs ai is too progressive and the ridge is too far east

that model sucks. I'm paying attention to Euro AI and GFS!

[SnoSki14]

Rgem would've been really good by the looks of it. Having the CMC on board is interesting. 

Maybe Friday's shortwave is messing with models. 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

So you're questioning the southern Delmarva getting 35 inches from this storm? It seems reasonable.

seems reasonable to question it

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

The Saturday energy seems to get out of the way faster too. That would help. Would just like the euro to do anything like this now. Think there's plenty of time left to adjust the track if we can just get some agreement on something coming together.

thats a work of art - and time is still on our side

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

seems reasonable to question it

More reasonable to dismiss it. At least for there.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

they made out in march 2018 iirc.....that's about the only one i can think of.

But not 35 inches like the GFS is showing.