Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[Santa Claus]

sun angle

[SACRUS]

 

2/17 12z GFS AI AIGFS

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

12z GFS AI AIGFS
 Total QPF

[Metasequoia]

That's beautiful. Looks like textbook KU. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Not sure I want to be in the jackpot 5-6 days out...but that's an incredible setup on the ICON

Definitely uneasy being so far out. 

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, Metasequoia said:

That's beautiful. Looks like textbook KU. 

 

Looks like rain quickly to hvy snow  - liek the ICON

[Nibor]

Classic look. The AI models have performed well this winter so that's encouraging.

[Wxbear25]

25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Not sure I want to be in the jackpot 5-6 days out...but that's an incredible setup on the ICON

TECHNICALLY the jackpot would be NJ… but yeah, I know what you mean lol

[ForestHillWx]

As much as I’d love that to work out, driving the primary to Buffalo, typically has significant precip type problems for our area.

But, as we need any and all precip at this point, let’s land this sucker! 

[MJO812]

Gfs is a slow moving big snowstorm

[Stormlover74]

Monster hit for the coast with plenty of room to Come north

[Nibor]

GFS nearly stalls out south of eastern LI/sne hrs 132-144

[Metasequoia]

12Z GFS is an improvement over 6Z... stronger and more tucky.

[SACRUS]

15 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

2/17 12z 

NYC QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24

ICON: 1.7 / rain to hvy snow
GFS AI AIGFS:  1.8 / rain to hvy snow
 

 

GFS:  1.3 / Hvy snow

 

Updated 

[SACRUS]

 

12z GGEM 

 

 

[MJO812]

Cmc went from nothing to a huge snowstorm 

[SACRUS]

 

[MJO812]

Jeez CMC is insane

[Stormlover74]

Bonkers run

[Snowlover11]

Cmc is a weenies dream!

[Jersey_Snowhole]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Jeez CMC is insane

You’re going to make me renew my stormvista.STOP!

[SACRUS]

 

Typical model progression GGEM robust 

[Nibor]

I thought the 0z OP runs were high end... 12z runs going wild.

[bluewave]

This would be our biggest rabbit out of hat event in years if we get the storm spacing and phasing to work out just right. The general storm signal continues to grow. But it’s tough to lock in details around day 5-6 when so much can change between now and then.

[WeatherGeek2025]

 cmc  that's the best case scenario for us! Biggest blizzard of our lives possible!

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

Typical model progression GGEM robust 

Insane 3-4 qpf now showing up

[WestBabylonWeather]

It’s cause Central Park got 3” In December. 

[SACRUS]

45 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

2/17 12z 

NYC QPF 2/22 - 2/23-24

ICON: 1.7 / rain to hvy snow
GFS AI AIGFS:  1.8 / rain to hvy snow
GFS: 1.3 / Hvy snow
GGEM:  1.9 / Hvy prolific  snow
 

 

Updated 

 

[snowman19]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Insane 3-4 qpf now showing up

The CMC is also trying to turn Fri-Sat into an event followed by one of the biggest blizzards in NYC metro area history. If that’s correct, it would completely cripple the area for days on end, probably over a week

[Metasequoia]

This is a really strong signal for five days in advance... and the models have noted the potential for several days now. Let's hope the signal is still here in a couple days after at least one preceding storm has cleared and model error is down. There was pretty good model to model and run to run consistency about five or six days prior to January's storm... gives me some hope.