It's coming 1/31-2/1

[Stormlover74]

Would like to see a more expansive precip shield to the west. This is more like bdb where you need to be within 50 miles of the coast ( as of now of course)

[kat5hurricane]

Just now, Wannabehippie said:

I am not getting excited about something 8 days away, and a system that hasn't even formed yet. 

It's less than 6 days away but I get the caution

[MJO812]

Just now, Wannabehippie said:

I am not getting excited about something 8 days away, and a system that hasn't even formed yet. 

5 days away

[Franklin0529]

Just now, Wannabehippie said:

I am not getting excited about something 8 days away, and a system that hasn't even formed yet. 

8 days away? Lol the precip moves in Saturday night. It's 5.5 days away and the storm is about to reach the west Coast 

[Brian5671]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Would like to see a more expansive precip shield to the west. This is more like bdb where you need to be within 50 miles of the coast ( as of now of course)

I wouldntt worry too much about the shield-even last storm you saw it get wetter as we approached.  A bombing low to the BM will deliver

[Nibor]

Ukie is a miss

[Stormlover74]

So its cmc/euro vs ukie/gfs

[WeatherGeek2025]

CMC shows a true bombogenesis blizzard for our region. at hour 132 it shows an already strong storm of 982 millibar low pressure just northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. 24 hours later it drops it to 955 just southeast of Montauk. That's a true blizzard and this is the reason why I got into weather because of the phenomenon called "bombogenesis"!

 

[CentralNJSnowman]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

So its cmc/euro vs ukie/gfs

I haven't seen the ukie, but given how far out we still are, that GFS is close enough that I'd view it as somewhat supportive of what we're looking for

[WeatherGeek2025]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Not sure about big but its a hit

you sure you don't want to rephrase that?

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

you sure you don't want to rephrase that?

Lol at that point it wasn't confirmed 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

So its cmc/euro vs ukie/gfs

Gfs is close

Ensembles love this storm 

[Metasequoia]

The GFS has intermittently shown a big storm impacting the region for almost a week now. The 21st, 23rd, and 24th model runs looked good... just not the recent runs.

[Northof78]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is close

Ensembles love this storm 

GFS ensembles or other?

[Franklin0529]

Just now, Northof78 said:

GFS ensembles or other?

Eps an eps ai both tightly clustered off the Delmarva

[MJO812]

Gefs improved

[WeatherGeek2025]

9 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Lol at that point it wasn't confirmed 

If Euro AI shows the blizzard this afternoon it's happening. The euro ai is the best model in the world and it's 100% right all the time

[TriPol]

I've seen weaker hurricanes than this before. 963 is at least Cat 2.

[vegan_edible]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

If Euro AI shows the blizzard this afternoon it's happening. The euro ai is the best model in the world and it's 100% right all the time

easy partner

[BoulderWX]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

If Euro AI shows the blizzard this afternoon it's happening. The euro ai is the best model in the world and it's 100% right all the time

please stop - definition of wishcasting. its 5-6 days out; todays runs mean very little - were only at pattern recognition stage right now. 

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

If Euro AI shows the blizzard this afternoon it's happening. The euro ai is the best model in the world and it's 100% right all the time

Can't argue with this 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, BoulderWX said:

please stop - definition of wishcasting. its 5-6 days out; todays runs mean very little - were only at pattern recognition stage right now. 

euro AI has had every storm right this winter. it's like 5 for 5

[JonClaw]

[MANDA]

Surprised no Kuchera maps posted yet.

[jm1220]

I would look at ensembles at this point vs op runs. We want the setup to be there and a storm present vs specific track. 

[SnoSki14]

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs improved

Heavy westward lean. 

[Stormlover74]

31 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

euro AI has had every storm right this winter. it's like 5 for 5

It has a grazer now

[Franklin0529]

7 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I would look at ensembles at this point vs op runs. We want the setup to be there and a storm present vs specific track. 

Ensembles love it. Look at the eps an AI eps

[WeatherGeek2025]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It has a grazer now

not good

[Winterweatherlover]

This feels more like a LI/Eastern NE special but last weeks storm I thought would be suppressed to our south so what do I know.