It's coming 1/31-2/1

[Uniblab]

Easy come, easy go. 

[SACRUS]

GEFS 

LP lean

 

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

4 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

UKMET was not worth posting.

I think UK is never worth posting!

[greenmtnwx]

2 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Look at all those west members. 

Yeah but they are too far south. Get them clustered 100 miles north of there and lookout in Tom’s River.

 

[NEG NAO]

does anybody have the GEFS individual ensemble members graphic chart ?

[Nibor]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

which one of those numbers ( members) is the OP ?

I posted the wrong run.

[NJwx85]

The trough orientation is neutral on the Canadian and actually does go negative at the last minute. I think it would have ended up better if not for the double barreled low.

[SnowGoose69]

Many notable events here.....more for the SE overall

 

https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F084&rundt=2026012812&map=thbCOOP72

[MarcmmKU]

Damn this would have rocked if the models shifted west by a lot more by now. Hard to get significant changes in the low placement 3 days out.

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

Damn this would have rocked if the models shifted west by a lot more by now. Hard to get significant changes in the low placement 3 days out.

Not at all. It’s a very volatile setup where small changes aloft can result in significant changes at the surface. That said there are larger features that aren’t favorable-the kicker coming from the Dakotas, early closing off and positive tilt. We need one or two of those to change around soon. 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Not at all. It’s a very volatile setup where small changes aloft can result in significant changes at the surface. That said there are larger features that aren’t favorable-the kicker coming from the Dakotas, early closing off and positive tilt. We need one or two of those to change around soon. 

This is so close we are not going to have all the answers till at least Friday or Saturday IMO because there is a good chance of at least some snow in the Region

[WeatherGeek2025]

10 minutes ago, MarcmmKU said:

Damn this would have rocked if the models shifted west by a lot more by now. Hard to get significant changes in the low placement 3 days out.

4 days until the first flakes would be flying. Nam isn't even in range yet

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

27 minutes ago, hooralph said:

The legacy of the Boxing Day storm creates false hope for a miraculous comeback just like the 2004 Sox give fan bases false hope about coming back from 3-0 down and the 2016 Pats from coming back 28-3 in the 4th Quarter. 

Way to many Boston references in there coming from a supposed New Yorker. 

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Way to many Boston references in there coming from a supposed New Yorker. 

He used to live in Boston. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

euro AI loading. If this thing don't show at least 3-6 i'll be real surprised!

[Franklin0529]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

euro AI loading. If this thing don't show at least 3-6 i'll be real surprised!

Weren't you out yesterday lol

[Prue11]

Still thinking this is a 1-3” or 3-6” type deal for ISP east

[Prue11]

Could This be a south fork LI special where east Hampton or MTK get 6-12” and west of say Riverhead sees 1-3?

[mikem81]

9 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

euro AI loading. If this thing don't show at least 3-6 i'll be real surprised!

Surprise 

[TJW014]

Maybe we don't see a NW trend. But something else to note is that the precipitation shield can often be modeled too far south. 

Look at Jan 2016. IIRC that low passed SE of the benchmark, yet still flung significant precip well inland. 

Two different storms, but if this winds up being a sub-970 low, there's going to be a large precip shield. 

[Prue11]

Does anyone remember the storm where montauk got 6” and the rest of the tri state got nothing? I think it was pretty late in winter maybe a few years ago?

[Nibor]

Euro delayed?

[mikem81]

Just now, Nibor said:

Euro delayed?

AI is OTS

[Nibor]

1 minute ago, mikem81 said:

AI is OTS

I'm talking about the OP

[Mo Snow]

My gut says swing and a miss at this point. Maybe we get 1-2"

but im a noob and a weenie

 

[nycsnow]

Euro ai not budging…if euro don’t trend better gonna be tough to rely solely on the GGEM to lead the way lol

[wthrmn654]

Since this last big storm,  the news media social media posts aren't getting the negative stuff,  laughing emojis,  we're getting nothing there never right etc... they better not stay on the its coming tune, if it doesn't look like it's coming or the trust they just gained back is gone!

[nycsnow]

Euro delayed?

[Nibor]

2 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Euro delayed?

Just started populating

[WestBabylonWeather]

Brutal