Possible coastal storm centered on Feb 1 2026.

[Torch Tiger]

the ones left hanging on should not be let out...you're stuck with it

[SnoSki14]

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The roads are still a mess. People are still digging out .

Imagine if we have gotten the Sunday storm. That would have been a sight to see with huge snow piles.

No clue why its so hard now to get a Miller A.

Flow is too fast thanks to CC as Tip explained 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I agree, to an extent. Most models are still well within margin of error to make a bigger impact. If the Euro has any clue, a couple more get on board at 12z. I think we'll have a better idea by 0z tonight. I think it's a lower probability, obviously. 

It would help if the 12z stuff today starts making moves west . It doesn’t even have to be that much . 25-50 miles happens quite often . A few minor changes with kicker , confluence and it would change things quite a bit. May not happen and the no snow calls end up correct. Like I mentioned will wait until 12z tomorrow to rule out accumulating snow .

[Sey-Mour Snow]

37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

= You finally get 5PPD, which is still too many.

[Lava Rock]

15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Drunk? most are AN snow and way BN temp 

 

Surprisingly PWM is 0.6 AN for Jan. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Everybody used to laugh at me when I said the off hour runs were BS…now you see it’s true. They suck.   Also as I thought back on Tuesday, that an OTS idea was the bigger worry.  Cape cod could see a decent snow…the rest of us are out of it. 

They are awful

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Lava Rock said:

Surprisingly PWM is 0.6 AN for Jan. 

The middle of the month was pretty mild....while there were no exotically warm days, large positive departures were fueled by some mild days and balmy nights.

[Chrisrotary12]

Is it possible to show trend GIFs with the off hour runs removed?

[MJO812]

31 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

This winter has been one big kick in the b*lls despite getting the last storm 

 Best winter here in years.

Average is 28. Im at 23.

[radarman]

Most sites were +3 after 19-20 days.  Not usually easy to erase that in the last third of the month but we did with room to spare in most locations.   Stacking BN winter mos lately, quite a streak.

[SouthCoastMA]

3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Is it possible to show trend GIFs with the off hour runs removed?

I'm not sure. But if one were to only look at the Euro OP runs for 1/27 12z, 1/28 0z, 1/28 12z, and 1/29 0z..one would think it's coming/trending closer. 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Surprisingly PWM is 0.6 AN for Jan. 

-4.6 Dec -1.2 Jan IJD

Just looked at ORH snow 37 this month wow

[Brian5671]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 Best winter here in years.

Average is 28. Im at 23.

35.5 here-we wont get every storm.   We've had 4 big events and it's only the end of January.  I'll take that any day

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, radarman said:

Most sites were +3 after 19-20 days.  Not usually easy to erase that in the last third of the month but we did with room to spare in most locations.   Stacking BN winter mos lately, quite a streak.

I remember when Forky said during warm spells there would never be BN months again. We are beating old normals too.

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Is it possible to show trend GIFs with the off hour runs removed?

EPS 24hr qpf valid Monday 18z

 

Euro Op

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't know what everyone's written overnight but this is gonna have to be a positive bust at this point.

Otherwise it's a saga about a signal verifying, a storm resulting, and we (winter enthusiasts) get porked. Done deal.   

It just is what it is... It's still odd that the whole bundle/wave space is taking such a parabolic motion and won't obey ( apparently) convention, but .. these things don't always fit into the text book in this business.  Anomalies, relative to (as in within) ongoing anomalies, due also happen.  

There's a logic to it ..it may need reanalysis and whatever to suss that out but ... I would still strongly suggest that the background speed soaked flow is playing around with and stressing standard models into behaving in odd ways. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

27 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

the ones left hanging on should not be let out...you're stuck with it

Lets fuse Ditty’s eyelids open so he has to stay up for the overnight runs…

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I remember when Forky said during warm spells there would never be BN months again. We are beating old normals too.

Hasn’t been seen or heard from in months 

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Winter sucks again 

Don't go there man. It is what it is.  Plus, it's not too common to have back to back big Winter storms anyway. It's that same game every Winter. We're not suppose to see days and days of Snow, just not what is common for our winters around here( although it can happen yes ). The good news? February is still looking great for the possibility of storms as we have more cold air pumping in, so don't give up. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Funny, Nova Scotia isn't lamenting the gradient. I understand the concept of it, but it's an oversimplification IMHO.....I think the struggle to phase near the east coast is probably related to CC, but more so due to the impact that it's having on the tropical convection patterns as the west Pac has warmed disproportionately fast. The gradient saturation idea doesn't really work for me because storms are phasing, just not where we want them to.

[SouthCoastMA]

32 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

the ones left hanging on should not be let out...you're stuck with it

stuck with in hand out in arctic cold? 

 

[Modfan2]

16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

-4.6 Dec -1.2 Jan IJD

Just looked at ORH snow 37 this month wow

-9F at my house in the valley today, drive up 6 into RI and jumped up to 5F, crazy difference 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't know what everyone's written overnight but this is gonna have to be a positive bust at this point.

Otherwise it's a saga about a signal verifying, a storm resulting, and we (winter enthusiasts) get porked. Done deal.   

It just is what it is... It's still odd that the whole bundle/wave space is taking such a parabolic motion and won't obey ( apparently) convention, but .. these things don't always fit into the text book in this business.  Anomalies, relative to (as in within) ongoing anomalies, due also happen.  

There's a logic to it ..it may need reanalysis and whatever but ... I would still strongly suggest that the background speed soaked flow is playing around with and stressing standard models into behaving in odd ways. 

There has to be a few similar cases from 1970 through 1999 when is rarely snowed/had KUs. 

Especially the 70s which were cold.

Have a hard time believing we didn't have a fast flow at times back then. Do not know if they even tracked it.

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

-9F at my house in the valley today, drive up 6 into RI and jumped up to 5F, crazy difference 

Yes crazy gradient around here 

[mahk_webstah]

35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It would help if the 12z stuff today starts making moves west . It doesn’t even have to be that much . 25-50 miles happens quite often . A few minor changes with kicker , confluence and it would change things quite a bit. May not happen and the no snow calls end up correct. Like I mentioned will wait until 12z tomorrow to rule out accumulating snow .

But don’t forget the messenger ticks. You need some leeway for those so these next two runs are really important. Fingers crossed!

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Funny, Nova Scotia isn't lamenting the gradient. I understand the concept of it, but it's an oversimplification IMHO.....I think the struggle to phase near the east coast is probably related to CC, but more so due to the impact that it's having on the tropical convection patterns as the west Pac has warmed disproportionately fast. The gradient saturation idea doesn't really work for me because storms are phasing, just not where we want them to.

It's a decaying block pushing south that is the main issuie...not fast flow or anything like that IMO.

[ariof]

30 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Surprisingly PWM is 0.6 AN for Jan. 

BOS is just-0.7, although they will probably wind up -2 by the end of the month. And Feb should start out BN enough it will take quite a torch to wind up AN. The string of days in the mid 40s to low 50s pushed up the average. MQE is -0.6.

BED and OWD, which radiate well, are -2.5 and -3.2, respectively, and both overperformed last night, too (-8 and -15, although the latter at OWD didn't have an hourly reading below -9). With the snow I would expect this to continue, especially with some calmer nights coming up.

[WinterWolf]

51 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Drunk? most are AN snow and way BN temp 

 

Yup!  
 

Bunch of silly people here. I’m at 40” on the season, and at the halfway point astronomically speaking. Average is 50”…it’s been a good, cold winter here so far. So we missed out on this one….it happens. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's a decaying block pushing south that is the main issuie...not fast flow or anything like that IMO.

Mathematically ... the speed of the flow is absolutely a part and crucial part at that, in the Navier-Stokes momentum of fluid system equations, to which these models are physically responsible for.  Propagating a wave through that medium is effected -

There may also be other factors involved;  I'll just add that I've seen 500 mb progression of Feb 5 1978, and the block decaying was observed as collapsing S - it was in fact what triggers the N/stream to fall S/ subsume scenario.  But maybe I don't know what you mean?  

 

[WinterWolf]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Hasn’t been seen or heard from in months 

Hmmm…I wonder why?